Ten Lessons from the Reveal

I always use the Top-16 Reveal, which occurred this past Saturday, as a reset of sorts. For those of us that spend our weeks dissecting NCAA resumes and trying to interpret them, the reveal lets us know what we are getting right and what we are getting wrong. Here are the lessons I'm taking from the reveal:

1) We did better than last year: A year ago, Cracked Sidewalks had 14/16 teams correct. This year we nailed 15/16. We also placed 13/16 on the correct seed lines. What did we get wrong? We flipped #8 West Virginia and #9 Maryland and had #16 Michigan State out (#17 on our Curve) and Penn State in.
2) Quantity of quality is king: We had the 1-seeds correct, but had Kansas fourth. Instead they came in #2 overall, largely thanks to more Quadrant 1A wins than San Diego State or Gonzaga.
3) NCSOS matters... Kansas also had the #1 NCSOS, well ahead of San Diego State or Gonzaga. This also hurt Penn State, who had 3 Quadrant 1A wins but were left out of the top-16 due to their sub-300 NCSOS.
4) ...Except when it doesn't: San Diego State behind Gonzaga surprised me. The Aztecs are unbeaten and have the better NCSOS.
5) Name recognition matters: I'm sure the Selection Committee would deny it, but Gonzaga ahead of SDSU, Oregon ahead of Butler, and Michigan State ahead of Penn State seem based more on name than resume.
6) You have to beat someone: Arizona was ranked 11th in the NET but left out and not mentioned as an alternate. Every team in the reveal had at least one Quadrant 1A win except Dayton, who is 21-0 outside Q1A.
7) NET outliers: Like last year, 14 of the top-16 teams in the NET were in the reveal. #11 Arizona and #16 Colorado were left out while #18 Villanova and #25 Oregon were in. Both the Wildcats and Ducks had 3 Q1A wins.
8) Losses don't matter...much: Baylor had the only Q2 loss of the 1-seeds yet was first, Duke had the two worst (and only Q3) losses of the 2-seeds and was tops there, and West Virginia edged Maryland despite two Quadrant 2 losses to zero. Losses will only come into play to compare after wins are stacked up if resumes are close.
9) No one wants the East: With all four 1-seeds playing west of the Mississippi, no one is going to want to potentially face Duke, Seton Hall, Maryland, or Villanova at Madison Square Garden. If the 1-seeds hold, there's a good chance the 1-seed will be facing road environments in back-to-back games the second weekend.
10) Next teams up: Kentucky, Iowa, and LSU got the most consideration for the last Top-16 spot. Kentucky has four Q1A wins and the only Quadrant 4 loss in the top-40. Iowa had two Q1A wins which mattered more than a Q2 and Q3 loss. LSU had to be close based on NCSOS. It's the only thing on the team sheet that put them ahead of teams like Penn State, Creighton, and Marquette.

Bonus: Marquette has to be close: The Golden Eagles have as many or more Q1 wins and opportunities remaining (6+5) than Auburn (4+2), Michigan State (2+6), Oregon (6+4), Kentucky (5+3), and LSU (3+4). If they avoid any more Q2 losses (Georgetown, at St. John's) and finish with more Q1 wins than those teams, they should be a top-4 seed.

Here's the post-reveal S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-BAYLOR 2-Kansas 3-GONZAGA 4-SAN DIEGO STATE
2-Seeds: 8-MARYLAND 7-LOUISVILLE 6-DAYTON 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-SETON HALL 10-AUBURN 11-West Virginia 12-Florida State
4-Seeds: 16-Oregon 15-Kentucky 14-Butler 13-Villanova
5-Seeds: 17-Iowa 18-Marquette 19-Penn State 20-Creighton
6-Seeds: 24-Illinois 23-Lsu 22-Michigan State 21-COLORADO
7-Seeds: 25-Ohio State 26-Arizona 27-Michigan 28-Texas Tech
8-Seeds: 32-Xavier 31-Byu 30-Rutgers 29-Wisconsin
9-Seeds: 33-HOUSTON 34-Oklahoma 35-Usc 36-Rhode Island
10-Seeds: 40-Stanford 39-Arizona State 38-Purdue 37-Georgetown
11-Seeds: 41-Wichita State 42-Indiana 43-Florida 44/St. Mary's 45-Arkansas/46-Virginia
12-Seeds: 50-VERMONT 49-YALE 48-FURMAN 47-NORTHERN IOWA
13-Seeds: 51-STEPHEN F AUSTIN 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-NORTH TEXAS 54-WRIGHT STATE
14-Seeds: 58-MURRAY STATE 57-UC IRVINE 56-COLGATE 55-HOFSTRA
15-Seeds: 59-LITTLE ROCK 60-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 61-WINTHROP 62-MONTANA
16-Seeds: 68-NC CENTRAL/67-ROBERT MORRIS 66-PVAMU/65-RIDER 64-NORTH FLORIDA 63-BOWLING GREEN

Last Four Byes: Arizona State, Stanford, Wichita State, Indiana
Last Four In: Florida, St. Mary's, Arkansas, Virginia

NIT 1-Seeds:VCU, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Utah State
NIT 2-Seeds: Alabama, ETSU, Richmond, Memphis

Multi-bid Leagues
Big 10: 11
Big East: 7
Pac-12: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
ACC: 4
WCC: 3
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2