Top-16 Preview

The NCAA's Top-16 will be revealed tomorrow so this will be our last shot at getting the teams right both by position and line. Here's a quick breakdown about each line and what my thoughts are a day before the reveal:

1-Seeds: Baylor, San Diego State, Gonzaga, Kansas
I feel confident these will be the teams on the top line. Baylor's combination of overall record and 13 Q1+2 wins (6 in Q1A!) puts them at the top, the Aztecs and Zags have exemplary records and metrics, and Kansas leads the nation with 14 Q1+2 wins while also ranking 1st in 3 of the 5 computer metrics on the team sheet. The order may differ, but these are clearly the most deserving teams of the top line.

2-Seeds: Duke, Dayton, Louisville, Maryland
This is being written before Maryland plays Illinois. If the Terps lose, it wouldn't surprise me to see West Virginia jump up to the 2-line but as of this writing, these are the most deserving teams. Duke has the best top-end wins, which trumps the better losses the other three have. The biggest debate here was who would occupy the 8-spot. Maryland got the nod because they had 6 Q1 wins and no losses outside Q1A. No one on the 3-line could make the same claim.

3-Seeds: West Virginia, Florida State, Villanova, Seton Hall
With Maryland on the 2-line, West Virginia and Florida State were easy choices for 3-seeds. Then it got really difficult between the top-3 teams in the Big East. Villanova, Butler, and Seton Hall are virtually tied in the NET and all compare closely in the computer rankings with a slight edge to the Pirates. With the teams being this close, I looked at three main factors: quality of wins, quality of losses, and strength of schedule. Despite having the fewest Q1 wins of the trio, Villanova has as many Q1A wins as the other two combined, have zero losses outside Q1, and have the toughest SOS per the team sheet. Between Butler and Seton Hall, the biggest differences are the Bulldogs having one more Q1 win, the Pirates having one more Q1A win, and a SOS edge to the Hall. When you add in Seton Hall winning at Butler (I hate head-to-head, but separating their team sheets is like splitting an atom) I had to give the edge to Seton Hall. And for the record, I changed that 12 position three times before settling on Seton Hall.

4-Seeds: Butler, Auburn, Oregon, Penn State
The first two here are pretty easy. Butler barely missed the 3-seed cutoff and Auburn's overall record and flawless play outside Q1 (despite only 3 Q1 wins) certainly warrants inclusion. Oregon has some questionable losses, but nothing outside Q2 and their trio of Q1A wins along with their overall resume is better than any of the other candidates for this line. The last spot goes to Penn State, which I am not at all confident in. However the Nittany Lions have a great resume when it comes to wins. 3 Q1A victories, 6 Q1 victories, and 10 Q1+2 victories. Other candidates for this spot included Arizona, Michigan State, Ohio State, Creighton, Marquette, and Kentucky, but none could match the sheer volume of across the board win quality of Penn State.

Why Teams Missed:

• Arizona (8 NET): Hard to leave out such a high NET ranking considering 14 of last year's top-16 were teams in the top-16 of NET, but Arizona simply doesn't have enough quality in Q1 wins. The computer might love them, but they haven't proven they can win the games necessary to be up here.
• Michigan State (11 NET): Sparty has fallen hard from preseason predictions. I looked long at them, but too many losses overall and half the Q1 wins of PSU kept them out. Very tough call and it wouldn't surprise me to see them included on Saturday.
• Ohio State (16 NET): The Buckeyes seem to have mostly righted the ship after a rough stretch. They have the win quality at the top of the resume, but the overall record and only 7 Q1+2 wins just didn't do it.
• Creighton (21 NET): Had they won at Providence, they would've certainly been in. The Jays have solid top-end quality, but the combination of NET ranking and fewer Q1A and Q1+2 wins than PSU has them outside looking in.
• Marquette (23 NET): The Golden Eagles were in the top-16 despite a 21 NET last year, this year they just miss out. I believe they are a closer to the top-16 than the consensus, but really needed 1-2 more wins to be up there.
• Kentucky (24 NET): This was the last team I considered for the final spot. The Wildcats have an awesome top of the resume, but that quality falls off fast and no one else has anything as bad as the Evansville loss.

Here's the full S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-BAYLOR 2-SAN DIEGO STATE 3-GONZAGA 4-Kansas
2-Seeds: 8-MARYLAND 7-LOUISVILLE 6-DAYTON 5-Duke
3-Seeds: 9-West Virginia 10-Florida State 11-Villanova 12-SETON HALL
4-Seeds: 16-Penn State 15-Oregon 14-Auburn 13-Butler
5-Seeds: 17-Michigan State 18-Creighton 19-Marquette 20-Ohio State
6-Seeds: 24-Iowa 23-COLORADO 22-Kentucky 21-Arizona
7-Seeds: 25-Illinois 26-LSU 27-Michigan 28-Texas Tech
8-Seeds: 32-Usc 31-Arkansas 30-Wisconsin 29-Rutgers
9-Seeds: 33-Byu 34-Xavier 35-Houston 36-Indiana
10-Seeds: 40-Wichita State 39-Rhode Island 38-St. Mary's 37-Stanford
11-Seeds: 41-Oklahoma 42-NORTHERN IOWA 43-Florida/44-Georgetown 45-Arizona State/Purdue
12-Seeds: 50-VERMONT 49-YALE 48-FURMAN 47-CINCINNATI
13-Seeds: 51-STEPHEN F AUSTIN 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-NORTH TEXAS 54-WRIGHT STATE
14-Seeds: 58-MURRAY STATE 57-UC IRVINE 56-COLGATE 55-CHARLESTON
15-Seeds: 59-LITTLE ROCK 60-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 61-WINTHROP 62-MONTANA
16-Seeds: 68-NORTH CAROLINA A&T/67-ROBERT MORRIS 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN/65-ST. PETER'S 64-NORTH FLORIDA 63-BOWLING GREEN

Last Four Byes: St. Mary's, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Oklahoma
Last Four In: Florida, Georgetown, Arizona State, Purdue

NIT 1-Seeds: Minnesota, Virginia, Richmond, East Tennessee State
NIT 2-Seeds: Memphis, VCU, Texas, St. John's

Multi-bid Leagues
Big 10: 11
Big East: 7
Pac-12: 6
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
ACC: 3
WCC: 3
American: 3
A-10: 2