Marquette vs. Georgetown - 2 Worst Turnover Differential Teams in Big 6 Conferences

Another great day shooting for Marquette led to a great start, but lopsided loss to Villanova. The one problem once again was turnovers. Yes, 7 of 16 free throws was a bad night, but on average a team hits 11 of 16 free throws so that only costs Marquette 4 points - less if they grab just one of the rebounds of those missed shots and score on the possession.

But turning the ball over 17 times while forcing only four turnovers is tough to overcome. Looking at national stats at www.kenpom.com a huge difference in turnovers (though not that big a discrepancy) was not completely unexpected. Villanova forces turnovers on 19.0 percent of opponents' possessions while only turning the ball over 11.6% of their trips - a +7.4 that ranks 15th in the nation in Turnover Advantage.

Unfortunately Marquette's 21.2 percent turnover ratio compared to turning opponents' over 14.8 percent of the time is a -6.4, the second worst difference of any team in the top six conferences. As you can see from the bottom of this table, only Georgetown is worst. The good news is that with one area being such a weak spot - and potentially somewhat explained by all the missed practice time, there is really only one problem that really needs to be fixed for this to be a very exciting team with a high ceiling. Here are the top 25 teams in Turnover Advantage, followed by the worst 10 teams among the top six conferences.

Georgetown and Marquette should both improve Saturday - when they play each other.

Rnk	Turnovers Forced - TO	Conf	TO advantage	Off TO%	Def TO%
1	Wake Forest	ACC	14.8	18.2	33
2	N.C. State	ACC	13.2	15.9	29.1
3	Utah	P12	13	13.5	26.5
4	Texas Tech	B12	12.3	16.5	28.8
5	Baylor	B12	11.5	15.7	27.2
6	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	11.2	17	28.2
7	Tennessee	SEC	11	14.9	25.9
8	Fordham	A10	10.9	10.9	21.8
9	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	9.4	15.5	24.9
10	UAB	CUSA	9.2	15.4	24.6
11	Sacramento St.	BSky	8.3	17.4	25.7
12	Clemson	ACC	7.7	19.9	27.6
13	Arizona St.	P12	7.6	15.4	23
14	Iowa	B10	7.5	12.6	20.1
15	Villanova	BE	7.4	11.6	19
16	Houston	Amer	7.4	18.1	25.5
17	Pacific	WCC	7.3	12	19.3
18	Mississippi	SEC	7	20.5	27.5
19	Abilene Christian	Slnd	7	21.8	28.8
20	Massachusetts	A10	6.8	15.3	22.1
21	Navy	Pat	6.8	14.7	21.5
22	LIU	NEC	6.6	16	22.6
23	UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	6.6	18.3	24.9
24	Wisconsin	B10	6.4	12.2	18.6
25	St. John's	BE	6.3	17.2	23.5
	Worst 10 Major Conf	Conf	TO advantage	Off TO%	Def TO%
1	Georgetown	BE	-8	21.7	13.7
2	Marquette	BE	-6.4	21.2	14.8
3	Kentucky	SEC	-4.9	22.8	17.9
4	Notre Dame	ACC	-4.7	16.7	12
5	DePaul	BE	-4.7	21.8	17.1
6	South Carolina	SEC	-4.3	26.5	22.2
7	Illinois	B10	-4	18.9	14.9
8	Michigan	B10	-3.6	18.3	14.7
9	Michigan St.	B10	-3	18	15
10	Iowa St.	B12	-2.8	23.5	20.7

Rumors of good defense for MU are greatly exaggerated

It's been a whirlwind week for #mubb and we're back to talk about it. We talk about the three games since last we posted. We spend time talking about what is going on with the defense and if the concern is overblown or not. We then talk about the new faces on the team and how we are starting to see them blossom. We then turn to future Top 10 victim, Villanova and whether we think #mubb can win. This will be the last pod for 2020, so we wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a Happy New Year! Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/zvmyi5/scrambledeggs_edit_12222020.mp3

Defenseless Again

Adam Kunkel sinks Marquette with a late three | Photo Courtesy of CBS Sports

 

It wasn't long ago that Brian Hamilton at The Athletic was writing about the improvement of Marquette's defense. With veteran players like Theo John and Jamal Cain that had years in the system, guards with lockdown defensive ability like Koby McEwen and D.J. Carton, and freshmen with length in the rotation like Dawson Garcia and Justin Lewis, it finally seemed that Marquette had all the elements to turn Steve Wojciechowski's defensive reputation into a reality that had yet to be realized in Milwaukee.

While the defense started well, it's starting to look like those early numbers might not have been indicative of what we will actually see this season. After the Oklahoma State game, Marquette's defense was ranked #24 on kenpom.com, having held their first three opponents below 0.900 points per possession. The eFG% was a suffocating 35.6%. Since then, the defense has gone in the opposite direction. Every opponent has managed over 1.000 points per possession, including more than 1.250 for both Creighton and Xavier. The eFG% is down to 46.3 for the season, but that's because they have allowed 52.2 defensive eFG% in the past 6 games, which is 213th in the country over that span.

Opponent	PPP	eFG%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	0.750	29.5
Eastern Illinois	0.694	32.0
Oklahoma State	0.897	45.8
UW-Madison	1.032	43.8
UW-Green Bay	1.015	46.0
UCLA	1.062	46.4
Creighton	1.254	60.3
Seton Hall	1.045	51.9
Xavier	1.319	65.2

Obviously no segment of the season is played in isolation, but looking at T-Rank from December 2 until now, Marquette's adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked #195 in the country. That's worse than any complete season in the Steve Wojciechowski era. It's worse than the 2017 team that was his first NCAA bid and it's worse than the 2018 team with Andrew Rowsey and Markus Howard limiting Marquette's perimeter size. To Marquette's credit, the first three games of the season still count, which puts the overall ranking at #71 nationally, but it's starting to look like those performances were more the outliers than an actual indicator of defensive improvement.

Further, while the season is young, the idea that this team will automatically improve because they are young may be unfounded. Marquette starts three seniors who have 13 years of D1 experience between them. They have another fourth-year junior on the bench and two sophomores in what appears to be an 8-man rotation. While there are also two freshmen in the rotation, Pomeroy rates Marquette #181 in experience and #161 in minutes continuity (the returning minutes that are continuing to play this year). Even with only 328 teams playing so far this season, that is still about middle of the pack in terms of experience. Not an old team, but not a young team either. At this point, the UAPB and EIU games are doing a lot of work in terms of this defense looking marginally respectable, though that marginal respectability is sliding backwards on a game by game basis.

The question is, if this team isn't as offensively gifted as the teams we've had in recent years and the defense isn't the calling card it looked to be a couple weeks ago, what is this team's path to success this year? The coaching staff will need to come up with an answer fast, because with Marquette already in the thick of Big East play, the schedule won't be easing up any time soon.

MU 1 of Only 5 Teams with No AP Top 25 Votes Despite Top 50 Offense and Defense

During Marquette's spirited come-from-behind win at Creighton, announcers commented on Marquette relying on defense rather than offense this season. While www.kenpom.com actually ranks MU's offense (21st best) as still better than the defense (48th), the potential for true lockdown defense is apparent and this is certainly more balances than last year (14th best offense, 73rd best defense). 

This leaves Marquette as one of only 5 teams to rank in the top 50 in both offense and defense at www.kenpom.com, and yet still not receive any AP writers Top 25 votes. Of course, this poll was released prior to the big win at Creighton - combined with the top 10 win over Wisconsin after MU only beat one Top 10 team in the last three seasons combined. The other teams are Purdue, USC, NC State and Alabama. 

Here are the teams with both a Top 50 offense and defense, as well as the overall www.kenpom.com ratign and their current AP rating (listed 26th place as the other team receiving the most vote points, etc.).

Top 50 off & def	Conf	Off	Def	kenpom	AP
Alabama	SEC	49	46	52	NR
Arkansas	SEC	45	30	34	39
Baylor	B12	3	9	2	2
Duke	ACC	17	17	11	21
Florida	SEC	27	24	24	33
Florida St.	ACC	24	15	12	15
Gonzaga	WCC	2	16	1	1
Houston	Amer	12	21	10	6
Illinois	B10	11	31	17	13
Indiana	B10	39	11	14	32
Kansas	B12	25	7	9	5
Louisville	ACC	22	25	23	23
Marquette	BE	21	48	33	NR
Michigan	B10	7	34	13	25
Michigan St.	B10	9	41	22	4
Minnesota	B10	40	42	42	40
Missouri	SEC	32	44	38	16
N.C. State	ACC	28	47	36	NR
North Carolina	ACC	36	20	28	22
Ohio St.	B10	10	37	21	20
Oregon	P12	15	40	25	31
Purdue	B10	31	38	32	NR
Rutgers	B10	46	12	20	19
Saint Louis	A10	37	35	37	26
San Diego St.	MWC	47	19	29	18
Syracuse	ACC	30	28	27	38
Texas	B12	19	3	5	11
Texas Tech	B12	50	1	8	14
UCLA	P12	14	43	26	35
USC	P12	41	33	39	NR
Villanova	BE	4	27	3	7
Virginia Tech	ACC	43	45	47	27
West Virginia	B12	13	10	6	8
Wisconsin	B10	18	6	7	12

Depending on where you stand we are either overreacting or underreacting.

Weirdly, the non-conference season is over and we are reacting to it. We largely ignore the UW-Green Bay game (we own the state) and focus on the result out in LA. We talk about the result, what Wojo did or did not do right, and what we take away from the game. We then talk about the start of conference season and how good(more likely bad) the game against Creighton goes and how MU will do against the Fighting Kevin Willards. We then close out the pod with some discussion of what the future holds from a schedule standpoint and Shakespeare (To bubble or not to bubble). As always, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/84nf3q/scrambledeggs_edit_12122020.mp3

All Hail Justin Lewis and his slaying of the Badgers

Well it was a roller coaster week for #mubb and we're here to talk about it. The week started off with a bad loss to Oklahoma State but that's not where we start because we gotta start with the Justin Lewis game. We discuss the game, the rotation, the result, and most importantly, Justin Lewis. We then turn to the week ahead and discuss the upcoming games against Green Bay and UCLA(maybe?). We also discuss the habit Wojo has to get a big win and then crap the bed. It's a lot and we hope you enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/e/all-hail-justin-lewis-and-his-slaying-of-the-badgers/

The Weekend That (Maybe) Saved the Big East

 Marquette piles on Justin Lewis after his tip-in upset #4 Wisconsin

Photo courtesy of JSOnline.com

On Wednesday night, the Big East was reeling. After Providence fell to Alabama, the league had a 3-5 record against other high-major leagues, while losses by St. John's (BYU) and Seton Hall (Rhode Island) gave the league 3 losses to teams outside the Top-6. To make matters even more daunting, the league faced a brutal weekend slate in which Connecticut, Marquette, Seton Hall, Villanova, Seton Hall (again), DePaul, and Georgetown were all underdogs. If those games went according to the bookies, the Big East would have been staring at a 3-12 record against their fellow high-majors, which in a usual year would be disastrous, but in a COVID-shortened season with fewer opportunities to get such wins due to the truncated non-conference schedule, could've been...well, whatever is worse than disastrous.

Remember that last year, the Big East and college basketball on the whole lost massive shares of NCAA Tournament revenue. With units valued at over $280,000 each, the Big East, which Cracked Sidewalks projected to earn 7 NCAA bids last year, lost nearly two million dollars just on the basis of first round appearances, and with Creighton, Villanova, and Seton Hall all favored to at least reach a second weekend, likely lost out on millions more. To make up for that, the league needs a big season like never before.

In the six years since the Big East was reformed, the league has never had a losing record against the other high-majors. The following table shows not just the Big East's record against the other high-major leagues (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC) but also their winning percentage in those games, the average number of losses per Big East member to teams Outside the Top-6 (O6 L/Team), the number of NCAA bids earned, and the percentage of league members earning a NCAA bid.

BIG EAST	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	20-18	0.526	1.20	4	40.0%
2015	23-16	0.590	1.40	6	60.0%
2016	26-18	0.591	1.20	5	50.0%
2017	27-18	0.600	1.10	7	70.0%
2018	19-17	0.528	0.60	6	60.0%
2019	21-20	0.512	1.00	4	40.0%

For a league like the Big East, that has never had a season below .500 against the other high-majors, the idea of having a win percentage in the 0.200-0.300 range could be incredibly bad. Only twice since the Big East split off have high-major leagues had winning percentages against the other high-majors below 0.340; the 2016 SEC (0.306 W%) and the 2019 Pac-12 (0.212 W%) each earned 3 bids. However due to having fewer members, a Big East with such an abysmal record could've easily been looking at just 2 bids.

Why are these games so important? It's simple. The majority of the at-large bids go to teams from the Top-6 leagues, so those competitions are the primary determiner of league quality. Beat up on the other Top-6 leagues and you will be rewarded with more bids. Get beat up on, get fewer bids. The wild card is the number of losses to teams outside those top leagues.

UConn started the turnaround with their win over USC. Marquette followed up on that with the league's then best win to date over #4 Wisconsin. Seton Hall dropped a game to Oregon, which was followed by Georgetown losing Sunday to West Virginia. The league had a successful Sunday overall, however, as Villanova got what might be the best win by any team of the season to date, beating Texas on the road while Seton Hall made up for their Friday loss, rallying from 19 down to beat Penn State in overtime. DePaul managed to remain undefeated, though that's only because their game at Iowa State was cancelled due to COVID protocols.

The league now sits at 7-7 against fellow high-major opponents with just 7 games left on the schedule. While there may be additional games added to make up for past cancellations, the simple reality is that there will be far fewer opportunities to get wins. Had the Big East gone 0-7 over the past weekend as expected, they would've been guaranteed a losing record in these games. Here's the current remaining high-major schedule:

Tuesday, December 8th: Creighton @ Kansas, 

Wednesday, December 9th: Oklahoma @ Xavier, Providence @ TCU

Friday, December 11th: Nebraska @ Creighton, Marquette @ UCLA

Saturday, December 19th: Butler vs Indiana

Saturday, January 9th: Georgetown @ Syracuse

At this point, I think the league could probably hope for somewhere between three and seven bids, depending on remaining results. If they win 0-1 of the above games, expect 3 bids. If they win 2-3, expect 4 bids. If they win 4 games, expect 5 bids. If they win 6 games, expect 6 bids. And if they win all 7, they have a shot at 7 bids. This will depend on the number of losses outside the top-6, obviously. Beat the teams you're supposed to beat and the Selection Committee will likely be lenient, lose too many of those (Georgetown, DePaul, I'm looking at you) and it can impact the entire league.

The following table shows historical expectations based on results of all of the Top-6 leagues. I will include the data for all 6 of those leagues at the end of this in case anyone wants to check the math or look at historical performances, such as how the Big East and Big 12 have never had losing records against the rest of the Top-6, how the SEC has never had a winning such record, or which league has the worst single season since realignment settled. Here are those aforementioned Big East targets:

Bids	Bid %	Low Win %	High Win %	Low Win O6 L	High Win O6 L	Mean Win%
3	0.273	0.212	0.469	2.17	2.17	0.341
4	0.364	0.345	0.529	1.29	1.27	0.437
5	0.455	0.451	0.536*	1.21	1.00	0.494
6	0.545	0.453	0.569	1.00	1.13	0.511
7	0.636	0.528	0.638	0.60	1.30	0.583

What does all this mean? Primarily that the Big East can still have a respectable showing come Selection Sunday. When I first started looking at this last week, I was really nervous. The performances of Marquette, Villanova, and Seton Hall's comeback in particular stand out as moments that could be the difference between 3 bids that would've been financially ruinous and more likely 5-6 bids that will give the league ample opportunities to help recoup some of the revenue lost in the non-existent 2020 NCAA Tournament.

It also highlights that in this season particularly, non-conference games are of significantly more importance. The reason the NCAA was so adamant they play non-conference games is because systems like kenpom, T-Rank, and the NET do not work without non-conference games. It isn't that they are less useful, it's that it is literally impossible for them to have accurate data if the leagues don't play each other. kenpom and T-Rank make projections based on what they think will happen and what happened last year. As the season goes on, that old data drops out and is replaced by current season data. In order for the systems to compare all 300+ NCAA teams, the only way to have a full basis for comparison is if the leagues play each other. If we only had league play, there would be no way to determine the difference between a 15-3 Winthrop from the Big South or 15-3 Baylor from the Big 12. While those divisions might seem obvious, what about comparing that same 15-3 Baylor team to 15-3 Kentucky? Both teams had identical conference records in high-major conferences, but we projected Baylor as a 1-seed and Kentucky as a 4-seed, and the only thing that makes that possible is the cross-pollenation of data between conferences.

Which brings us back to the importance of these games. When leagues are playing half as many non-conference games, and many of those are being cancelled due to a global pandemic, the ones that are played are far more important. In the past 6 years, the Big East has played an average of 40.8 high-major non-con games. This year that numbers is currently projected to be 22, meaning every one you are able to play has roughly twice as much importance for your league and a bad stretch, such as had the league begun those games 3-12 as was predicted on Thursday morning, could be catastrophic when Selection Sunday rolls around because instead of having 26 more games to make up the difference, you only have 7.

With that in mind, the entire league owes a collective debt of gratitude to their members for overcoming the odds and getting wins this past weekend. The league could really use 3-4 wins this week just to solidify their position as a top league and insure they are well-rewarded come Selection Sunday.

Below I am including league-by-league data charts matching the one from the Big East above. I'm doing this primarily because I think it's valuable data that others may be interested in. Also, before anyone complains, I am adamant on only including the Top-6 leagues as the high-majors. Sorry, but there are no accommodations for Gonzaga, or half the AAC, or anyone else. Quite simply, this data is here because the Top-6 leagues are competing with each other for NCAA bids. In an average year, the WCC expects between 1-3 bids. The AAC expects 2-4. No other league can reliably expect more than 2 bids. Even in their worst years, the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and SEC expect 3-9 bids, depending on the number of members. They simply play in a different league, and despite other leagues having accomplished programs, they do not have the depth of quality that allows them to compete with the big boys. With that in mind, here's the additional data:

ACC	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	25-27	0.481	1.67	6	40.0%
2015	27-24	0.529	1.27	6	40.0%
2016	31-28	0.525	0.93	7**	46.7%
2017	34-26	0.567	0.67	9	60.0%
2018	29-22	0.569	1.13	8	53.3%
2019	30-26	0.536	1.00	7	46.7%

BIG EAST	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	20-18	0.526	1.20	4	40.0%
2015	23-16	0.590	1.40	6	60.0%
2016	26-18	0.591	1.20	5	50.0%
2017	27-18	0.600	1.10	7	70.0%
2018	19-17	0.528	0.60	6	60.0%
2019	21-20	0.512	1.00	4	40.0%

BIG 10	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	25-24	0.510	0.67	6	50.0%
2015	23-28	0.451	1.21	7	50.0%
2016	26-26	0.500	1.64	7	50.0%
2017	29-32	0.475	0.71	7	50.0%
2018	21-31	0.404	1.00	4	28.6%
2019	32-26	0.552	0.43	8	57.1%

BIG 12	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	21-17	0.553	1.00	7	70.0%
2015	23-16	0.590	0.50	7	70.0%
2016	28-15	0.651	0.80	7	70.0%
2017	23-17	0.575	0.90	6	60.0%
2018	25-17	0.595	0.50	7	70.0%
2019	30-17	0.638	1.30	6	60.0%

PAC 12	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	19-17	0.528	1.25	6	50.0%
2015	12-20	0.375	1.75	4	33.3%
2016	15-15	0.500	1.50	7	58.3%
2017	14-17	0.452	1.75	4	33.3%
2018	15-17	0.469	2.17	3	25.0%
2019	7-26	0.212	2.17	3	25.0%

SEC	W/L v P6	Win %	O6 L/Team	NCAA Bids	Bid %
2014	20-27	0.426	1.79	3	21.4%
2015	29-33	0.468	1.21	5	35.7%
2016	19-43	0.306	1.07	3	21.4%
2017	19-36	0.345	1.29	5	35.7%
2018	24-29	0.453	1.00	8	57.1%
2019	28-33	0.459	1.07	7	50.0%

* The 2015-16 Big East also came close to matching this, but was considered a major outlier. That season had a close bid percentage, but the league had 3 teams with losing records and 2 teams that played virtually no one in non-conference and were thus left out. Because it was an extreme outlier due to those rare circumstances it was not included in this part of the data.

** The ACC would've likely had an eighth bid in 2015-16 had Louisville been eligible for the NCAA Tournament, but they self-sanctioned, resulting in 7 bids for the league.

Solid start to the season, now things get real #BadgerHateWeek

So the season has started and all things considered, it was pretty good. The Scrambled Eggs team got together to discuss the results of the first competitive games for #MUBB in 8 months. The focus of the discussion is on the front court, DJ Carton, and what the rotation looks like going forward. We then turn to this weeks contests, starting with Oklahoma State and the challenge Cade Cuningham represents. Then we turn to #BadgerHateWeek and discuss what we think MU can do against Wisconsin. It will be a challenging week but, hey, we're playing basketball so enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/y2gi6q/ScrambledEggs_Editted_113020.mp3

Value Add Basketball Cards for 10 Marquette Players and 5 Other Big East Teams

Below are the projected player cards for Marquette and five other Big East teams included in the 68 team in the Value Add Basketball Game. After learning of the Covid-19 season shutdown while in Madison Square Garden in March I spent the next few days calculating player cards for 100 teams I thought would have made the NIT or NCAA tournament to add to my 100 all-time great teams (where Bill Walton's UCLA had defeated Michael Jordan's UNC for the all-time title).

This week I updated the game by choosing 68 of those teams who looked strong this season. I kept the cards for all players who had a card last year (whether on the same team or moving to a new team). The layout sets up to just have 10 players per team, so sorry for the MU and other players I left off. The calculations sort the players into 5 starters and 5 bench players, so do not take the line-up listed for MU as my opinion or suggesting the line-up Wojo put on the court these first couple of games was anything less than fantastic.

I took players who were on this ESPN roster, however I noticed some of the JUCO transfers and transfers who had sat out a season (e.g. Sam Hauser with UVa) were not listed on the ESPN roster, so we added players from the Top 100 JUCO rankings as well as Jeff Goodman's rankings from 2019 tracking the key transfers who sat out the 2020 season but planned to play this season. 

We did not go beyond those three steps to verify if players were sitting out this year due to Covid, were injured, etc., but we hope this gives a somewhat realistic play for what would have happened this season without the interruptions Covid-19 may cause. However, projecting player cards for college players is obviously not an exact science, so the top 150 freshman basically got a card that matched an equal freshman from last year at the same position (e.g. the 25th highest ranked freshman PG gets a card roughly equal to the 25th best freshman PG last year). You can pull up the cards for the non-Big Esat teams in this blog.

If someone actually wants to play a game, click on the image to open it in a separate screen, then print that sheet. The top line for each team are the suggested starting players left to right from 1 (point guard) to 5 (center), but you can rotate players in any order you want. Each player has an endurance figure of between 7 and 44 to indicate the maximum number of possessions he should play in the game. In addition to using these instructions, you will need to print out the scoresheet at the bottom of his blog. The game continues to be my most widely read blog with 43,300 clicks, and the game is free.

To look at the team's player cards, you should click on each image and then click to open the image in a new tab, where the players and their numbers should all be clear and easy to read.

Big East teams included

Connecticut 2021

Creighton 2021

Marquette 2021

Providence 2021

Seton Hall 2021

Villanova 2021

The season starts....we think

It's time for the weirdest season on-record for #mubb to kick-off. We start off by talking about the swirl of external events around the basketball season and how they will impact the shape of the season to come. We also discuss what a delay to the season may look like if it happens. We then discuss the news that Jose Perez is available to play this season, via waiver, and what that might mean for the team. We then discuss the upcoming games, how they might turn out, and what we think the results will be. Buckle up and enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/c4v9ty/scrambledeggs_edit_112420.mp3

Marquette Preview, 2020-21

Marquette Golden Eagles

Coach: Steve Wojciechowski (115-81)

Three-Year NCAA Rank Average: 37.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 39.0

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 76

Yes Big East fans, Theo John is still at Marquette

Photo from gomarquette.com

Projected Starters: PG Symir Torrence (6'3" So), SG D.J. Carton (6'2" So), SF Koby McEwen (6'4" RS Sr), PF Dawson Garcia (6'11" Fr), C Theo John (6'9" Sr)

Marquette's 2019-20 season was eerily familiar for Golden Eagles fans. A promising non-con start, competing near the top of the conference for two months, then a staggeringly poor finish. The biggest difference was the play of Markus Howard. His struggles were in large part responsible for the 2019 slump but this past year he was the only scintillating spot as Marquette dropped game after game. Howard's departure has fans in Milwaukee wondering what is next for this team and how successful Coach Wojo can be without the focal point of an offense that was ranked on average 16.5 nationally with Howard as its leader.

In addition to losing the Big East's all-time leading scorer, reliable contributors Sacar Anim, Brendan Bailey, and Jayce Johnson are also gone from this roster. Symir Torrence has received rave offseason reviews and will hope to make a significant freshman to sophomore year jump. He has excellent court vision and distribution abilities. Marquette got a huge boost when transfer guard D.J. Carton was granted immediate eligibility. Carton has NBA potential though while he can score is far more of a distributor and game manager than Howard was. He is also regarded as a better defender, something Wojo sorely needs. Koby McEwen should be more comfortable on the wing and along with Torrence and Carton gives more of a three-guard look. McEwen showed flashes early on but cratered down the stretch, with a 78.6 adjusted offensive rating during the 1-6 finish. Up front, Garcia is the preseason Big East Freshman of the Year. The McDonald's All-American can score inside and out, is able to put the ball on the floor, and should be able to play all three frontcourt positions. John is a physical enforcer who does most of his work around the rim. Jamal Cain and Greg Elliott will likely get close to starter minutes off the bench. Cain is a bouncy forward that can provide excellent rebounding, shooting, and length, while Elliott is an athletic guard that, when healthy, can be a big contributor on both ends, though that health has been elusive. The rest of the bench is filled by youth, with Dexter Akanno looking like a long-term piece in the backcourt and Justin Lewis and Osasere Ighadaro offering potential but no experience. The wildcard could be Jose Perez, a transfer from Gardner-Webb who was just granted immediate eligibility. Perez is a physical wing that was originally going to sit out. He tended to run hot and cold as one of the focal points at GWU and Marquette will likely hope a lower usage rate will lead to greater efficiency.

Offensively, the plan the past two years has been for everything to go through the hands of Markus Howard. Carton will likely have similar freedom, but expect him to share opportunities a lot more than Howard did. Expect the offense to continue to work from the outside in. Marquette under Wojo always has a wealth of three-point shooters and that will likely continue. This should be a better team on the offensive glass and while it's hard to imagine them being more offensively efficient without Howard, they will likely be more productive inside. On paper, this team should be better defensively. Wojo's teams usually stick with man-to-man, though in high-leverage situations they often throw a zone look at opponents. Marquette isn't the kind of team to try forcing turnovers or imposing their defensive will on opponents, instead working to stay in front of their assignments with John acting as the safety valve at the rim. This year they have more length with guys like Carton, Cain, and Garcia so logic indicates this will be a better defensive team. The problem is that it seems there's a case every year as to why Marquette will become a good defensive team (added athleticism in 2018, no more undersized Rowsey in 2019, no more slow-footed Hausers in 2020) and yet they never match preseason defensive expectations. Until we actually see the improvement, it's hard to accept that it will happen.

In a perfect world for Marquette, Carton would be a better replacement for Howard, not fully matching his scoring but guiding a more balanced offense that doesn't just rely on one guy going off to get a win. Garcia would live up to his immediate potential, serving as a Henry Ellenson type but better understanding his role. Torrence would blossom as a game manager, helping the other offensive pieces to reach their ceilings. And all the length would finally lead to a reliable defense that was able to carry Marquette to top-three in the league and a protected NCAA seed. But I can just as easily envision no one stepping up to alpha scorer status in lieu of Howard and the young roster leading to too many defensive miscues for a team that never really solidifies themselves in the NCAA picture. Like many Big East teams, there are a wide range of outcomes for this squad, perhaps best evidenced by their preseason kenpom and T-Rank disparity. Pomeroy has them at #36 and third in the Big East, T-Rank has them at #76 and ninth in the league. One of the problems with having high expectations for this team is that in the Wojo era, Marquette has only once finished higher on kenpom at the end of the season than they started. Wojo's teams consistently fail to meet expectations. So where do they end up this year? If they get a full season from Carton, I think he's too good for this team not to be competitive. I expect them to be in the middle of the league, good enough to be on the bubble but never quite reaching the heights Marquette fans want to see from Wojo.

St. John's Preview, 2020-21

St. John's Red Storm

Coach: Mike Anderson (386-215 overall, 17-15 at St. John's)

Three-year NCAA Rank Average: 77.0

Three-year kenpom Average: 76.0

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 60

Julian Champagnie is looking for a sophomore breakout

Photo by Seth Wenig | AP Photo

Projected Starters: PG Rasheem Dunn (6'2" RS Sr), SG Vince Cole (6'6" Jr), SF Julian Champagnie (6'8" So), PF Marcellus Earlington (6'6" Jr), C Josh Roberts (6'9" Jr)

Mike Anderson's first campaign in charge of the Johnnies started in fine fashion, with an 11-2 non-conference record that included wins over West Virginia and Arizona, both teams that finished in the kenpom top-20. Big East play, however, was not nearly as successful. Despite a number of close losses, St. John's went just 5-13 in conference play, saved from the bottom of the league by only DePaul. A Big East Tournament win over Georgetown did insure a winning overall season, which keeps up Anderson's amazing run of finishing .500 or better in all 18 of his seasons as a head coach.

The offseason hit the Johnnies hard, with starters Mustapha Heron and Nick Rutherford graduating and leading scorer L.J. Figueroa transferring to Oregon. Those players take 58% of St. John's three-point makes and every player to connect on 35+% from deep off the roster. So who's left? Rasheem Dunn is the leading returning scorer and assister. He did well transitioning from a high-usage mid-major scoring guard to the point for Anderson and should be better with a year's experience under his belt. Joining him in the backcourt is JUCO transfer Vince Cole. The rangy wing will be counted on to replace some of that lost three-point shooting. The player most fans in Queens are keeping an eye on is Julian Champagnie. The long wing does a bit of everything and will likely try to fill Figueroa's shoes. Up front, Earlington and Roberts will need to step into bigger roles after serving as rotation players last year. Off the bench, expect guard Greg Williams, wing David Caraher, and forward Arnaldo Toro to all see minutes. Anderson will also likely count on at least one of his freshmen, with Posh Alexander being the most likely candidate to crack the rotation.

Anderson's system starts on the defensive end, where they play a high-pressure version of 40 Minutes of Hell. Expect the Johnnies to apply pressure, force turnovers, and when teams do get into the lane, have shot blockers ready and active. Because of that pressure, Anderson's teams do tend to give up a lot of offensive rebounds and free throw opportunities. Offensively, the turnovers created lead to a high-paced attack that is usually going downhill and trying to get to the rim before the defense can get set. His teams share the ball very well and he typically has 4+ players with over 20% usage, but rarely have any individual at 30+%. Conventional wisdom says the losses of Heron and Figueroa will hurt this team offensively, but that might not be true. Both of them shot under 40% inside the arc and while Anderson will hope for better outside shooting, his teams rarely rely on the three-point line, instead favoring inside scoring. With the ball more in the hands of Champagnie, Earlington, and Roberts, all of whom were reliable inside scorers, this team could surprise on the offensive end.

The coaches picked St. John's 9th in the league. Not as bad as Georgetown and DePaul, but simply not blessed with enough talent to compete at the top of the league. I think they're better than that. While Figueroa and Heron are big losses, I think there's reason to trust Anderson's system. The returning players fit his system well and Marquette fans will remember how effective that system can be when it's hitting on all cylinders. Having a wealth of players accustomed to lower usage rates that excel at scoring inside, which is exactly how Anderson coaches, seems to actually work more in this team's favor than the Mullin players that never quite seemed to fit right together. 40 Minutes of Hell will almost certainly allow St. John's to steal a few games they aren't expected to win and I think instead of fighting to avoid the cellar they will more likely be battling for the bubble come March.

Marquette Memory: The 2013 regular season finale at Madison Square Garden was one for the ages. The Johnnies built up an 8-point first half lead, but Marquette ended the first half outscoring the Johnnies 13-2, then matched that feat to open the second and stretch the run to 26-4 and the lead to 14. Marquette had relatively comfortable control through the second half and when Jamil Wilson pushed the lead to 61-51 with 3:25 to play, it looked like it was time to celebrate a Big East Championship. Instead, the Johnnies rallied late, going on a 12-2 run to force overtime. St. John's retook the lead twice in overtime, but Marquette matched them both times. With the score tied at 67, Vander Blue took the inbound, used a Davante Gardner screen to shed his man, drove to his right and slashed to the rim. "They're on their feet at the Garden, Vander Blue...HE GOT IT! AT THE BUZZER!!!" With that win, Marquette secured their first and only Big East regular season title and Blue gave us a precursor to the drive that would beat Davidson a couple weeks later in the NCAA Tournament.

Providence Preview, 2020-21

Providence Friars

Head Coach: Ed Cooley (273-191 overall, 181-122 at Providence

Three-year NCAA Ranking Average: 46.3

Three-year kenpom Average: 60.7

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 20

David Duke is expected to step up as Ed Cooley's next great Providence guard

Photo by Paul Rutherford | USA Today Sports

Projected Starters: PG Jared Bynum (5'10" RS So), SG David Duke (6'5" Jr), SF A.J. Reeves (6'6" Jr), PF Noah Horchler (6'8" RS Sr), C Nate Watson (6'10" Sr)

2019-20 was a yo-yo season for Ed Cooley's Friars. They started the season 6-6 with four sub-100 losses and a pair of drubbings by the only teams of relative quality (Rhode Island & Florida) they faced. According to T-Rank, they were the 124th best team in the country during that period. Then an upset over Texas keyed a 5-1 stretch that had them near the top of the Big East and playing like the 16th best team in the country. They couldn't keep that up and dropped five of seven, looking like a bubble team as the 41st best team over that difficult stretch. Then, over the final six, they went a perfect 6-0 and during that period were the #1 team in the nation according to T-Rank. Through it all, Alpha Diallo was the consistent leader, but it was transfer guard Luwane Pipkins playing like a borderline All-American (14th nationally in PORPAGATU!), posting at least a 107 adjusted offensive efficiency and 28+ minutes in every game down the stretch. Now both Diallo and Pipkins are gone, as are a trio of key role-players in Kalif Young, Maliek White, and Emmitt Holt.

Cooley's offense is best when he has a dynamic point guard. Players like Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton, and Kris Dunn laid the groundwork for what Pipkins became at the end of last year. This season the keys will likely be in the hands of Jared Bynum, a transfer from St. Joe's who averaged 11.3 ppg/4.5 apg as a freshman. Bynum struggled against top-50 opponents but is expected to get the first chance at running the show. The wings are the strength of this team. Duke and Reeves were both top-50 recruits who have shown the ability to come up big before. Up front, Horchler was a double-double machine for North Florida who remained productive when he faced top competition while Watson is a proven productive and efficient contributor on both ends of the floor. Off the bench, Syracuse transfer Brycen Goodine is a former top-100 recruit who is immediately eligible if Bynum isn't able and the Friars have a wealth of long, athletic wings and forwards led by Greg Gantt that give Cooley depth and options.

Offensively, Cooley's teams used to always run through one point guard. Vincent Council, Bryce Cotton, Kris Dunn, and Kyron Cartwright all had top-5 national assist rates in their careers. The past two years, it's been more of a committee approach. They have one regular post player, currently Watson, and everyone else is focused on moving the ball for the best shot. Cooley has generally played at a medium pace, but last year they were racing out of the gate and were #67 (72.8 possessions per game) in tempo through the first 12 games, with a poor 6-6 record to show for it. Previously, Cooley's fastest tempo (and only top-150) was the 2015 team that ranked #129 nationally. The rest of the way they slowed it down, playing at the #243 tempo (67.2 possessions per game). Dropping possessions by 5.6 per game is a massive shift and unquestionably deliberate, and the Friars improved dramatically because of it. While their offense did improve as the season went on, it was the defense that was their calling card. Providence is primarily a man defense that uses its length at virtually every position to suffocate smaller opposing guards and force mistakes. That length also allows them to succeed in zone (they use more zone than any other Big East team, albeit only 20% of the time) which means they have the ability to mix defenses and with their length and athleticism throw a variety of looks at opponents.

Like most Big East teams, this is a hard one to project. While they lost a ton from last year, the team was actually better from an efficiency perspective without Diallo. Pipkins, at least how he played late, might be the bigger loss. Still, this team has the athleticism and length to keep up Cooley's consistently efficient defense and there's a lot of offensive talent. It will likely take time for the offense to come together, but Cooley has already had a year to work with Bynum while Duke has breakout star written all over him. This has the feeling of a comfortable NCAA Tournament team. In this year's Big East, that could mean a finish anywhere from second to fifth, but I tend to think this is a team better situated to capitalize on their upside because they have the defensive consistency to stay in most games and enough offensive playmakers to keep up.

Marquette Memory: Providence games are known to feature odd events and one of the most notable was on January 17, 2009. In a game at the Dunkin' Donuts Center, Providence guard Jeff Xavier drove to the rim and drew contact from Joe Fulce. Xavier went down with a scratch near his right eye and the game seemed ready to carry on until a fan came down from the stands, climbed over the Providence bench, and took to the court to confront one of the officials. Security quickly took the fan into custody and escorted him from the court. Marquette coach Buzz Williams said after the game "I told the officials, 'We'll leave, because that's extremely dangerous. I saw the guy coming out of the stands. Forget the game; I'm going to protect the guys. I'm going to protect those guys no matter what." It's a good thing Williams and his team stuck around as Marquette rallied from a 13-point second half deficit for a 91-82 win over the Friars. The fan turned out to be Jonathan Xavier, the brother of the Providence guard. He was charged with disorderly conduct for the incident.

Georgetown Preview, 2020-21

Georgetown Hoyas

Head Coach: Patrick Ewing (49-46)

Three-Year NCAA Rank Average: 104.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 87.0

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 121

Patrick Ewing is still seeking his first NCAA bid at Georgetown

Photo from ESPN

Projected Starters: PG Jalen Harris (6'2" RS Sr), SG Jahvon Blair (6'4" Sr), SF Jamorko Pickett (6'8" Sr), PF Jamari Sibley (6'8" Fr), C Qudus Wahab (6'10" So)

This time last year, Georgetown was the trendy breakout pick in the Big East. James Akinjo, Mac McClung, and Josh LeBlanc were the building blocks Ewing needed to elevate the program while Omer Yurtseven was the perfect replacement for Jessie Govan as a proven high-major big man with the ideal mentor in Ewing. The Hoyas likely felt they were capitalizing on that potential when they started 4-1 and had a halftime tie with Duke at the Garden. Then the bottom fell out. They lost that game and a subsequent buy game to UNC-Greensboro. Akinjo & LeBlanc left the program with reserves Galen Alexander and Myron Gardner following a week later. McClung and Yurtseven rallied for three more solid non-con wins against Oklahoma State, SMU, and rival Syracuse, but once Big East play the Hoyas fell apart. They lost 7 of their first 10, then lost McClung and Yurtseven to injuries. Once the season ended, McClung transferred and Yurtseven declared for the draft, leaving the promising roster in shambles.

So what's left? Harris enters as a grad transfer who was a low-usage, low-efficiency game manager for three years at Arkansas. Blair and Pickett are the experienced statesmen of the team. Both stepped up adequately last year when the roster was decimated, but neither has demonstrated any level of star quality. Freshman Sibley is a Milwaukee native that has long-term upside but will likely struggle initially at this level. The one player that does seem to have real potential is Wahab, who excelled as a rebounder and shotblocker when Yurtseven went down while also providing efficient contributions on the offensive end. The bench is a mash-up of transfers (JUCO and mid-major) and youth. Simply, there's not a lot to offer much faith or hope.

Offensively, look for the Hoyas to try to push the pace, share the ball, and crash the glass in hopes of making up for their lack of definitive scoring options with extra opportunities. Defensively, the Hoyas focus on an inside-out approach. They aim to contest everything at the rim, control the defensive glass, and do so without fouling. That said, they had the worst defense in the league last year and in addition to the losses at the high-end quality part of the roster, they also saw Terrell Allen and Jagan Mosely graduate, taking experience with them. Expect a lot of growing pains for this group, especially as it's thoroughly unproven once you get past the starting five.

The shock of last year's team is that from an efficiency perspective, it was Ewing's best to date. The problem was a stacked Big East and an anemic roster. While the Big East won't be as good this year, the Hoyas clearly have the worst roster in the league and there are still 8-9 teams in the league that can at least make a case for being NCAA contenders. While there won't be that many (4-6 feels likely) Georgetown is going to be battling uphill every single night in terms of roster quality. Ewing has enough bodies that he will squeeze some wins out of this team, but I expect the Hoyas and not DePaul to be at the bottom of the league when all is said and done. It's sad to see what has happened to this once-proud program, but at this point, Georgetown is the doormat of the league.

Marquette Memory: Georgetown was the first opponent Marquette ever faced in the Big East Tournament back in 2006. Marquette defeated Georgetown 57-51 in the regular season and things started off swimmingly at MSG, with Marquette building an 11-point lead midway through the first half. Georgetown answered with a 13-2 run that tied the game at halftime. Throughout the game, shooting woes plagued Marquette, most notably Big East Freshman of the Year Dominic James, who went just 2/13 from the field. The second half was a back and forth affair with neither team being able to pull away until the final minute, when a pair of Brandon Bowman free throws with 0:39 to play put the Hoyas up 58-50. Marquette then ran off a furious 9-2 run that brought them within a point on Steve Novak's three with 6 seconds to play. Bowman hit another pair of free throws to stretch the lead back to three, and a Jerel McNeal desperation heave went wide, allowing Georgetown to escape with the 62-59 victory.

DePaul Preview, 2020-21

DePaul Blue Demons

 

Head Coach: Dave Leitao (208-227 overall, 123-132 at DePaul)

Three-Year NCAA Rank Average: 124.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 103.7

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 81

Charlie Moore is a First-Team All-Big East selection

Photo from depaulbluedemons.com

Projected Starters: PG Charlie Moore (5'11" Sr), SG Javon Freeman-Liberty (6'3" RS Sr), SF Courvoisier McCauley (6'5" Jr), PF Romeo Weems (6'7" So), C Jaylen Butz (6'9" Sr)

At 12-1 with wins over Iowa, Minnesota, and Texas Tech, the #RankDePaul movement was in full swing. It appeared that the Blue Demons were back, led by a legitimate NBA prospect in Paul Reed and a dynamic guard in Charlie Moore. Then Big East play started, and the Blue Demons reminded us all why so many of their critics refer to them as "DuhPaul." They started conference play 1-12 on their way to another last place finish in the league, the tenth time they've occupied that spot since 2009. Then second-leading scorer Reed left early for the NBA and third-leading scorer Jalen Coleman-Lands transferred to Iowa State.

The new edition of the Blue Demons will be led by Moore, who finally found a home after previous stops at Cal and Kansas. A pair of transfers join the starting lineup. Freeman-Liberty has received some NBA hype after scoring 19.0 ppg for Valparaiso last year while Courvoisier McCauley was a Division II All-American capable of scoring inside and out. Weems was a top-75 recruit who flashed big play ability and will be expected to take a lot of the load Reed left behind. In the middle, Butz has developed into a reliable if unspectacular big man in the middle, though he is expected to miss time to start the season. Off the bench, there is a trio of transfers that will fight for minutes. Guard Ray Salnave was a solid scoring option for Monmouth, wing Brian Patrick was a reliable shooter and scorer for Fort Wayne after failing to crack the rotation at Kansas State, and DePaul's Pauly Paulicap is a physical forward coming in from Manhattan. Another one to watch is Nick Ongenda, a 6'11" center who was impressive late last year and may start in Butz's place at least early on.

The offensive strategy for Leitao is built around attacking early and often. His teams play at a fast pace and get the vast majority of their points inside the arc, which is good as they generally suck at shooting (Leitao last had a top-100 3PFG% team in 2007). Long, aggressive forwards allow them to also crash the offensive glass, though that may suffer without Reed. They also suffer when it comes to holding onto the ball; Leitao's team has been sub-200 in turnover rate every year in this second tenure at DePaul. Defensively, they want to slow teams down and force the turnovers that allow them to push the pace at the other end. Reed was also a prodigious shot blocker, so it remains to be seen how their defense will operate without him flying around as a defensive terror.

Last year, I wrote this about DePaul: "...this is a team that finished last in the Big East and lost their top three scorers. It's hard to imagine them being better than they were a year ago." This year, they lose two of their top three scorers including their best NBA prospect, so it's again difficult to project a big jump, even if there are things to like on paper about this team. How this team fits together is a big question. Five of the nine projected rotation players are transfers in, coming from Division II and mid-majors. Moore, Weems, and Butz give them some stability and proven Big East ability, but there are a ton of questions around slapping a roster together in this fashion. Add in a new Athletic Director at DePaul and Dave Leitao will be squarely on the hot seat and under pressure to perform with this team immediately. There's enough question marks with some other squads that DePaul might avoid the basement, but competing for the middle of the league and a NCAA bid seems like just too high a hill to project.

Marquette Memory: When Marquette drubbed DePaul 85-64 on January 29, 1977, it marked the 19th straight victory for the Warriors over the Blue Demons. On Valentine's Day, it would be a different story. A pair of late turnovers by Marquette star Butch Lee allowed DePaul to tie the game at 60 and force overtime. Marquette held on through overtime, but missed a pair of shots with 1:01 to play and had to survive a missed Gary Garland shot at the horn as the teams headed to double-overtime. The second extra stanza started with a three-point play for DePaul's Joe Ponsetto (yes, that name should sound familiar) that put DePaul ahead for good. After the loss, Marquette coach Al McGuire was pessimistic on his team's outlook, saying "I personally think it's very doubtful that we'll get a tourney bed. One more defeat and we're out. Because there's never been any love affair with us and the NCAA." The bad news was that Marquette was defeated not once but three more times before the end of the season, including the next two after this DePaul defeat. The good news was that McGuire was wrong and Marquette did indeed get a bid to the 1977 NCAA Tournament despite their 19-7 record. Not only did they get a bid, they won five straight once they got there, cut down the nets at the Omni in Atlanta, and captured the first and only NCAA Championship in program history while also setting a then-record for the most losses by a title-winning team.

Butler Preview, 2020-21

Butler Bulldogs

Coach: LaVall Jordan (70-64, 59-40 at Butler)

3-Year NCAA Ranking Average: 41.3

3-Year kenpom Average: 39.0

2020-21 T-Rank Projection: 74

LaVall Jordan needs to find new production this year

Photo from IndyStar.com

Projected Starters: PG Aaron Thompson (6'2" Sr), SG Jair Bolden (6'3" RS Sr), SF Christian David (6'6" Sr), PF Bryce Nze (6'7" RS Sr), C Bryce Golden (6'9" Jr)

The Bulldogs started last season on an absolute tear, opening 9-0 before suffering their first defeat at Baylor 53-52. If anything, that closeness of that loss to a Baylor team flirting with the top-10 convinced people this Butler team was ready to compete. They ran their record to 15-1 and peaked at #5 in the country before the bottom fell out. They dropped three straight and eight out of twelve before a favorable closing schedule allowed them to finish 22-9 (10-8 Big East). The autopsy on last season would try to determine what was real, the brilliant start that had them as the #3 team over the first sixteen games according to T-Rank or the dismal finish that saw them play like the #64 team in the country over the last fifteen?

Any determination going forward will be have to be done without Kamar Baldwin, the stat-stuffing guard that always seemed to pop up with the clutch shot or defensive stop when needed. Also gone are sharpshooter Sean McDermott, wing Jordan Tucker, and a pair of bench contributors in Henry Baddley and Derrik Smits. While the starting lineup looks experienced on paper, most of these guys will have new roles. Aaron Thompson will run the offense and take the defensive task of the opposing team's best guard. Thompson is Butler's version of Derrick Wilson: solid defense, low usage, and can't shoot. Shooting from the backcourt will come from grad transfer Jair Bolden, who has been relatively productive at George Washington and South Carolina, but has never been an alpha scorer before. Christian David is looking to step up from a sixth man role. The front court pairing of the Bryces, Nze and Golden, was a solid but unspectacular pair last year. So who will lead this team? The best candidate might be Bo Hodges, a transfer from ETSU who would be a bit of a Swiss Army knife at the wing, able to contribute on both ends of the floor. If Hodges doesn't get a waiver to play this year, Jordan's bench will be stocked with unproven freshmen, the best of whom, Scooby Johnson, will miss the season with an ACL tear.

Jordan tends to run his offense through 1-2 higher usage players, grinding the pace to a snail's while repeatedly going to pick-n-roll. Bolden feels like the most likely to replicate what Baldwin tried to do. Don't be surprised to see the Bryces take significantly more offensive load. Nze is maybe the team's best all-around player. He's the guy that does all the right things but can go somewhat unnoticed. Golden is the highest usage returning player and could form an inside-out combo with Bolden. Where this team is likely to be best is on the defensive end. They suffocate teams inside and are great at team rebounding to limit second chances. Thompson is a great perimeter defender, though he'll need others to step up because Baldwin and Tucker were both athletic defenders.

Like so many in the Big East, this is a hard team to project. Offensively, they will likely struggle to score. I fully expect them to keep slowing the pace of the game, if only because getting into rock fights and keeping games close will be their best chance to win. While they have some experience, it's almost all role-players needing to step up without anyone proven, and while there are a lot of bodies on the bench, none of them are proven. The ceiling is probably landing on the right side of the bubble if Hodges gets eligible or someone can prove effective on the offensive end. If they can't find reliable scoring, however, this is a bottom half Big East team whose biggest danger to opponents will be keeping it ugly and close long enough to steal a couple games at the end.

Marquette Memory: While they wouldn't become conference mates until the next season, the 2012-13 season featured two meetings between Butler and Marquette. The first came in Maui, where the teams played a back-and-forth affair that looked to be going Marquette's way until a Junior Cadougan missed free throw with 8 seconds left allowed Rotnei Clarke to make a ridiculous off-balance, running, one-handed three pointer from 35 feet out at the buzzer to break Marquette hearts 72-71. I've always referred to it as the "puke shot" because Clarke just threw it up. Marquette did get a chance at revenge, however, in the NCAA Tournament. The teams met in the second round with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. The game was just as good, with Rotnei Clarke looking like the hero early after 18 first half points. Marquette had the answer, however, as Vander Blue took over late, scoring 19 of his 29 points in the second stanza. His three-pointer with 1:25 remaining tied the game at 69 as Marquette rallied from a 35-27 deficit at the half. Clarke was shut down in the second, scoring just 6 points after the break and with a 74-72 Marquette lead, it again came down to a shot at the buzzer. This time, a wild effort from Andrew Smith careened off the backboard as the buzzer sounded, allowing Marquette to complete their revenge en route to what would be an Elite 8 run.