Stop...Bracket Time!

While it's not actually a bracket today, we have the first Cracked Sidewalks S-Curve of the 2020-21 season. I've aimed for Christmas in recent years, but felt waiting was warranted considering we didn't really have much data to work with, and because it's hard to evaluate teams that have a 5-10 game disparities in games played.

Marquette begins just outside the field. It was close, as their resume at a glance is nearly identical to the last team in the field, Maryland, but Marquette simply doesn't have the computer numbers to offset their mediocre record. That said, they are favored on kenpom in 8 of their remaining 12 games, so they appear to be in position to make the field if they win the games they are supposed to win.

Overall, the Big East is weaker than it was a year ago. While Villanova and Creighton are still well-positioned, UConn is the only other team that would be favored to win a first weekend game. Part of the problem for that is a lack of non-conference wins over teams worthy of at-large bids (the top-48 teams). The Big East is 4-11 against those teams. No Big East team has more than one such victory and the lack of quality wins means the wins earned in league play simply don't carry the weight they normally would, especially against the bottom 5 teams (Providence, St. John's, Butler, Georgetown, DePaul) who went a combined 0-6 in those games.

Could the fate of Marcus Zegarowski's 2019 Creighton team

signal the future for DJ Carton's 2021 Marquette team?

Photo Courtesy of Marquette Athletics

That likely has two repercussions. First, having a winning league record may not mean as much as it has in the past, especially if a team ends up with an unbalanced schedule and the bulk of their wins against those 5 teams listed above. Consider a few past examples of teams that missed the NCAA field worth looking at:

• 2014 Clemson (20-12/10-8): 9 of their 10 ACC wins vs non-tourney teams, 2 Q1 wins.
  
• 2014 St. John's (20-12/10-8): 8 of their 10 Big East wins vs non-tourney teams, 2 Q1 wins.
• 2014 Georgia (19-13/12-6): 12 of their 12 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 2 Q1 wins.
  
• 2015 Miami (21-12/10-8): 8 of their 10 ACC wins vs non-tourney teams, 5 Q1 wins.
• 2015 Texas A&M (20-11/11-7): 9 of their 11 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 1 Q1 win.
  
• 2016 Ohio State (20-13/11-7): 9 of their 11 Big Ten wins vs non-tourney teams, 2 Q1 wins.
• 2016 South Carolina (24-8/11-7): 9 of their 11 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 1 Q1 win.
• 2016 Georgia (19-14/10-8): 10 of their 10 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 1 Q1 win.
• 2017 Alabama (19-14/10-8): 8 of their 10 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 3 Q1 wins.
• 2018 Mississippi State (20-13/10-8): 8 of their 10 SEC wins vs non-tourney teams, 3 Q1 wins.
• 2018 Nebraska (22-10/13-5): 12 of their 13 Big Ten wins vs non-tourney teams, 1 Q1 win.
  
• 2019 Creighton (18-14/9-9): 8 of their 9 Big East wins vs non-tourney teams, 2 Q1 wins.

Will Marquette get in if they only beat the bottom tier of the Big East from here on out? Maybe. But past precedent shows it's certainly no guarantee that even if they beat every one of the bottom five from here on out while playing all their games that a 15-10 (11-8) resume with 10/11 league wins vs non-tourney teams will be enough. While beating the teams you are expected to beat is important, to be secure Marquette really needs to capitalize on their remaining games against Creighton, UConn, Seton Hall, and Xavier to truly feel secure.

Here's the first S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-MICHIGAN 4-VILLANOVA

2-Seeds: 8-Clemson 7-Iowa 6-Tennessee 5-Texas

3-Seeds: 9-HOUSTON 10-Kansas 11-Creighton 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Usc 15-Wisconsin 14-Colorado 13-Texas Tech

5-Seeds: 17-ALABAMA 18-Connecticut 19-Ohio State 20-West Virginia

6-Seeds: 24-Virginia Tech 23-ST. LOUIS 22-LOUISVILLE 21-Missouri

7-Seeds: 25-Oregon 26-UCLA 27-Minnesota 28-Virginia

8-Seeds: 32-Oklahoma 31-Lsu 30-Arkansas 29-Oklahoma State

9-Seeds: 33-Indiana 34-Rutgers 35-DRAKE 36-Seton Hall

10-Seeds: 40-Florida State 39-San Diego State 38-Xavier 37-North Carolina

11-Seeds: 41-BOISE STATE 42-Purdue 43-Stanford 44-Florida

12-Seeds: 50-FURMAN 49-TOLEDO 48-Syracuse 47-Maryland 46-Wichita State 45-Byu

13-Seeds: 51-LIBERTY 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-WINTHROP 54-UAB

14-Seeds: 58-NAVY 57-SIENA 56-ABILENE CHRISTIAN 55-BRYANT

15-Seeds: 59-BELMONT 60-NORTHEASTERN 61-GRAND CANYON 62-LITTLE ROCK

16-Seeds: 68-ARK. PINE BLUFF 67-NORTH CAROLINA A&T 66-STONY BROOK 65-SOUTHERN UTAH 64-CLEVELAND ST. 63-UC IRVINE

 

Last Four In: BYU, Wichita State, Maryland, Syracuse

Last Four Byes: Florida State, Purdue, Stanford, Florida 

NIT 1-Seeds (First Four Out): Marquette, Richmond, VCU, Pittsburgh

NIT 2-Seeds (Next Four Out): Pittsburgh, SMU, NC State, Michigan State

Multi-bid Leagues

Big 10: 10

Big 12: 7

ACC: 7

SEC: 6 

Pac-12: 5

Big East: 5

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2

AAC: 2