Monday, November 29, 2021
Post Thanksgiving relaxation and #BadgerHateWeek
Monday, November 22, 2021
As starts to regimes go, this was a pretty, pretty good one
Sunday, November 21, 2021
What MTE Titles Mean in March
Photo by Mic Smith | AP News
Tonight Marquette will take on St. Bonaventure in the championship game of their multi-team event (MTE), the Charleston Classic. While this young Golden Eagles squad has already given fans more excitement in the first two weeks of the season than most expected for the entire year, a victory over the Bonnies could go a long way toward punching Marquette's ticket to the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday.
While it might seem silly to think about NCAA bids in November, non-conference is the only time leagues can establish themselves against other leagues, which directly determines how many bids leagues earn in March. There is no time of the year more important to determining the number of bids a league will earn than November and December, and with the shortening of non-conference schedules as leagues move to 20-game schedules, each game becomes that much more important.
I looked at the postseason destinations of the champions of 17 different MTEs over the past five full NCAA seasons. I excluded 2019-20 due to COVID cancelling the tournament and 2020-21 due to the irregularity of MTEs. I also looked at the number of runners-up that made it to the subsequent NCAA Tournament. Not surprisingly, winning is better. Here's the breakdown:
| Champ-NCAA | Champ-NIT | Champ No Bid | Runner-Up-NCAA | |
| 2018 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2017 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 2016 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2015 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 2014 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| Total | 60 | 15 | 10 | 38 |
This included going through 85 separate brackets. MTE champs went to the NCAA Tournament 70.6% of the time and earned a postseason bid (NCAA or NIT) 88.2% of the time. Runners-up went to the NCAA just 44.7% of the time. Based on the numbers, the winner between Marquette and St. Bonaventure will be 25.9% more likely to earn a bid on Selection Sunday.
It's certainly possible for one or both teams to miss. That happened in 2015 when Marquette beat Arizona State to win the Legends Classic but both teams were left out of the NCAA and NIT fields. But numerically, when you beat 2-3 quality opponents over the stretch of a few days, it's a significant resume boost that greatly enhances your chances of playing longer in March, and more often than not in the Big Dance. In addition, since Marquette's 2001 Great Alaska Shootout win, that Legends Classic is the only time Marquette won an MTE and failed to punch their NCAA dance card, earning bids in 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2012.
So if you need an extra reason to cheer for Marquette tonight, remember that even in mid-November, an NCAA Tournament bid may very well be on the line.
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The events analyzed for the piece were the Battle for Atlantis, Maui Invitational, Charleston Classic, Orlando Invitational, Paradise Jam, Las Vegas Invitational, Hall of Fame Tip-Off, MGM Main Event, Gulf Coast Classic, NIT Tip-Off, Legends Classic, Hall of Fame Classic, Cancun Challenge, Wooden Legacy, Emerald Coast Shootout, Diamond Head Invitational, and 2K Classic. Here's the full dataset, including the events, champions, and seeding for all 85 MTEs surveyed:
Friday, November 19, 2021
Marquette’s Greatest Hits Against Bob Huggins
The Marquette Golden Eagles meet an old foe tonight as they take on Bob
Huggins’ West Virginia Mountaineers in the Charleston Classic semi-finals.
Huggy Bear and Marquette have a long history together during his days as Cincinnati’s head coach and when West Virginia was in the Big East. Here are some of the greatest defeats in timeline order that Marquette handed the always smug and controversial coach...
02/10/1994: Marquette tops Cincy 61-60 for its first win over Huggins. Marquette lost its first four games to Huggy Bear and only of one those losses were close. On that day in Cincinnati, Marquette Head Coach Kevin O'Neill and the legendary starting five of Jim Mcllvaine, Damon Key, Tony Miller, Roney Eford, and Robb Logterman, were not going to be denied.
03/02/1996: Marquette wins 74-72 over No. 7 Cincinnati at the Bradley Center. The win is not only a victory over a top-10 team but caps off Marquette’s first undefeated home record since moving into the Bradley Center.
03/07/1997: Marquette rips apart the Bearcats and Huggins 91-79 in the Conference USA Tournament semi-final round. Marquette would go on to win the next day, capturing its only conference tournament crown.
02/10/1999: Not much went right during Mike Deane’s last season. On this night, Marquette shocked Huggins’ No. 4 Bearcats 62-58 at the Bradley Center. It was the highlight victory of a 14-15 Golden Eagles 1998-99 campaign.
01/10/2001: Brian Barone hits a game-winning three from the corner during the game's final minute and Marquette hangs on to win 47-44. The victory gives Tom Crean his first win over Huggins.
02/02/2002: Dwyane Wade, Cordell Henry, and the gang combine to dominate No. 4 Cincinnati 74-60 at the Bradley Center. The fans storm the court celebrating, snapping the Bearcats' 20-game win streak.
03/08/2003: Confetti rains down from the Bradley Center rafters. Marquette becomes the first non-Bearcats team to win the Conference USA regular-season title outright. It appropriately happens with a 70-61 win over Cincinnati on the final day of the season. Wade and Robert Jackson memorably embrace at center court celebrating their achievement.
01/01/2011: Marquette opens Big East conference play with a 79-74 win over West Virginia. Bob Huggins coaches, looking as if he was out all night on Water Street celebrating New Year's Eve.
03/09/2011: Marquette beats No. 20 West Virginia at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament. The win helps solidify a birth into the NCAA Tournament and the Golden Eagles go on that first magical run to the Sweet 16 in the Buzz Williams era.
02/24/2012: Williams suspended Darius Johnson-Odom, Junior Cadougan, and Vander Blue for the first half for a violation of team rules. Marquette went into halftime down 32-21. DJO was back on the court for the second half and Marquette proceeded to go on a 24-8 run. Jae Crowder scored 26 points and the Golden Eagle squeaked a 61-60 win. Buzz celebrated the win by dancing on the court.
Monday, November 15, 2021
Shaka's Past and the Marquette Roster's Future
Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
When Buzz Williams was at Marquette, much was made of how his program wasn't for everyone. He wanted the tough guys, the ones who had to work a little harder to get here, the kids that knew they wanted the Number 2 from the McDonald's value meal menu. If you asked Al, he might've said they knew about the Cracked Sidewalks. Because of that, much was made of how frequently Buzz had players transfer out under his watch. When Steve Wojciechowski replaced him at Marquette, the conversation shifted to how he retained the entire roster Buzz left behind as fans hoped the transfer "problem" would be fixed. In retrospect, that hope was in vain.
So what does any of that have to do with today? Under Shaka Smart, Marquette is in a vastly different place than they were when Williams inherited Tom Crean's loaded 2008-09 team or when Wojciechowski retained Williams' entire current roster despite losing most of the freshmen recruits. Only three of Wojo's scholarship players stayed with Smart as he focused more on building his own culture than trying to hold on to the roster his predecessor left behind. Today, we're going to look at the early departures under all three coaches, Williams and Wojchiechowski in their time at Marquette and Smart in his time at Texas, to try to tell if Marquette will be in a better place as immediately eligible transfers become more common in the modern game.
Photo by USATSI
Buzz Williams' Tough Love
"I think recruiting, as things have evolved, tends to spoil kids. And within the culture I coach in on a daily basis, spoiled kids really struggle in dealing with me." That was Buzz Williams' view on the culture he created. That led to more transfers out than Marquette fans were accustomed to and also more Junior College transfers in as Buzz tapped his own JUCO roots. Here's the list of players that left Marquette early under Williams, though we are only counting players that spent time on campus as students.
| Year | Player | % Minutes | Destination | Original Coach |
| 2009 | Brett Roseboro | 0.0 | St. Bonaventure | Williams |
| 2009 | Patrick Hazel | 17.9 | Boston University | Crean |
| 2010 | Jeronne Maymon | 10.7 | Tennessee | Williams |
| 2010 | Liam McMorrow | 0.0 | Tennessee Tech | Williams |
| 2010 | Youssoupha Mbao | 4.3 | Marshall | Williams |
| 2011 | Erik Williams | 11.3 | Sam Houston State | Williams |
| 2011 | Reggie Smith | 5.3 | UNLV | Williams |
| 2012 | Jamail Jones | 16.9 | FGCU | Williams |
| 2012 | T.J. Taylor | 0.0 | North Texas | Williams |
| 2013 | Jamal Ferguson | 4.6 | NC Central | Williams |
| 2013 | Vander Blue | 79.1 | G League/NBA | Williams |
| 2013 | Jameel McKay | 0.0 |
Iowa State |
Williams |
Buzz had 12 early departures in 6 years, about 2.0 per year. However, of those 12, only Jeronne Maymon, Reggie Smith, Vander Blue, and Jameel McKay seemed to have significant future roles penned in for them. McMorrow and Blue are accented with a different color because their departures weren't traditional transfers. McMorrow was ruled medically ineligible and later transferred while Blue declared for the NBA Draft, went undrafted, and played in both the G League and NBA in the first season after his time at Marquette. Only three players under Williams, Maymon, Blue, and McKay, left for locations that had levels of play that were comparable or at a higher level than Marquette. Generally, when people left Marquette, it was because they weren't good enough and went somewhere they thought they could play. If there is blame to lay at Williams' feet, it is misevaluations in recruiting. Some of the guys he brought in simply weren't good enough to play at this level.
The Buzz Williams tenure at Marquette was just a bit ahead of the NCAA norm. He averaged 2.0 departures per year. That is similar to 2020, the last year before immediate eligibility, when the average number of transfers per school in Division I was 1.83 (648 confirmed transfers for 353 schools). In addition, most of the players that left under Williams were players most of the Marquette fanbase wouldn't remember or miss based on their accomplishments or expectations here.
Photo by Mitchell Layton | Getty Images
Steve Wojciechowski's Lost Team
After Williams left, there was a lot of speculation about how the recruiting class would be lost and the roster would leave. Instead, "...Wojciechowski did something that went unnoticed by many. The first time he walked into the Marquette locker room, with nine young men confused about their futures standing inside it, he gave each player a hug." At the time, it seemed exciting that Wojo retained the roster and later rallied around the #8Strong concept. Most of the recruits left, but Wojo also was able to successfully re-recruit top-100 local kid Sandy Cohen. The end results, however, told a different tale.
| Year | Player | % Minutes | Destination | Original Coach |
| 2014 | Gabe Levin | 0.0 | Long Beach State | Wojciechowski |
| 2015 | Deonte Burton | 10.0 | Iowa State | Williams |
| 2015 | John Dawson | 0.0 | Liberty | Williams |
| 2015 | Steve Taylor | 54.8 | Toledo | Williams |
| 2016 | Henry Ellenson | 82.6 | NBA | Wojciechowski |
| 2016 | Wally Ellenson | 19.0 | G League | Wojciechowski |
| 2017 | Sandy Cohen | 1.5 | Green Bay | Wojciechowski |
| 2017 | Traci Carter | 10.1 | La Salle/Hartford | Wojciechowski |
| 2017 | Duane Wilson | 38.3 | Texas A&M | Williams |
| 2018 | Haanif Cheatham | 9.3 | FGCU/Nebraska | Wojciechowski |
| 2018 | Harry Froling | 17.5 | QBL | Wojciechowski |
| 2019 | Sam Hauser | 82.7 | Virginia | Wojciechowski |
| 2019 | Joey Hauser | 72.7 | Michigan State | Wojciechowski |
| 2020 | Ed Morrow | 15.7 | Unknown | Wojciechowski |
| 2020 | Brendan Bailey | 62.1 | Macedonian League | Wojciechowski |
| 2021 | Symir Torrence | 28.8 | Syracuse | Wojciechowski |
While many expected Wojo's softer touch to result in better player retention, he saw 2.29 players per year leave the program, more than Buzz during his tenure here. It started with Levin, who left before ever suiting up for Marquette, continued with two of the retained players from that first team (Burton and Dawson) leaving before Christmas, and carried on with his own players leaving for both collegiate and professional options. Looking back at Wojo's first #8Strong season, that hashtag only came about because of three departures before Christmas (Levin, Burton, Dawson), and of the #8Strong players that didn't graduate (Carlino, Anderson, Derrick Wilson), most of those still transferred away before their careers were over (Cohen, Carter, Duane Wilson). One of the big differences is that while Williams' departures were largely kids that couldn't make the grade at this level, Wojo lost a lot of players to other high major programs.
An in-their-prime roster of Duane Wilson, Haanif Cheatham, Sam Hauser, Deonte Burton, and Steve Taylor with Joey Hauser, Traci Carter, Gabe Levin, and Sandy Cohen off the bench would be a pretty good college team (though maybe not defensively). In addition, while one can't fault Henry Ellenson for going from top-10 recruit as a freshman to First Round NBA pick after his one season, the other players that left Marquette early for professional options didn't come close to reaching the heights of the sport. It's also worth noting that aside from Dawson and maybe Froling, all of these players had clear futures and roles had they stayed at Marquette.
The problem for Wojo wasn't talent evaluation, it was getting guys to buy in to his program at Marquette, and it showed whether they were major contributors (Bailey, the Hausers), rotation players that other coaches agreed were good enough for the high-major level (Wilson, Torrence), or they were just starting their Marquette careers (Carter, Cohen, Levin). That seems to indicate a culture problem.
Photo by Rodolfo Gonzalez | American Statesman
Smart's Culture Approach
In taking over Marquette, Smart did not inherit the level of talent Tom Crean left for Williams nor did he retain the entire roster as Wojciechowski did. Smart has kept a journal from his time at VCU, and one of the lines his younger self wrote about things he would do differently if he had to start over in the future was "All culture for the first two years." Well, here he is, and we've heard a lot about how the focus will be on the culture. Just as telling is looking back on the departures during his time at Texas.
| Year | Transfers Out | % Minutes | Destination | Original Coach |
| 2016 | Jordan Barnett | 1.8 | Missouri | Barnes |
| 2016 | Isaiah Taylor | 76.5 | G League/NBA | Barnes |
| 2017 | Tevin Mack | 35.6 | Clemson | Smart |
| 2017 | Jarrett Allen | 80.2 | NBA | Smart |
| 2018 | Jacob Young | 35.7 | Rutgers | Smart |
| 2018 | James Banks | 6.7 | Georgia Tech | Smart |
| 2018 | Mohamed Bamba | 64.3 | NBA | Smart |
| 2018 | Eric Davis | 48.2 | Unknown | Smart |
| 2019 | Elijah Mitrou-Long | 43.1 | UNLV | Smart |
| 2019 | Jaxson Hayes | 50.0 | NBA | Smart |
| 2020 | Will Baker | 15.5 | Nevada | Smart |
| 2021 | Kai Jones | 54.3 | NBA | Smart |
While Smart saw 2.0 players leave per year, only 1.2 left for anywhere other than to play in the NBA. Of the 6 that pursued pro options, 5 played in the NBA the next season. Mack was dismissed from the team before transferring. 5 players transferred. It doesn't seem to be an evaluation issue, as three went to high major levels and two of those were guys that barely got minutes. Generally speaking, while departures happened, the only times it happened with key players was when they went to the NBA and from a recruiting perspective, it wasn't because they weren't good enough for the high major level.
The question is if this cultural focus will work in an era of immediate eligibility. Smart's history at Texas indicates the talent evaluation is spot on and when players depart to be professionals, that is usually because they are good enough for the NBA. But now that no one has to wait to play, will retaining young talent like Emarion Ellis and David Joplin who have long-term upside but might not see major minutes this year be harder than it was for Smart at Texas? In addition, 40% of the players Smart sent to the NBA were McDonald's All-Americans (Allen and Bamba) which will likely be less common at Marquette.
I will leave you with this. Of the three departure tables above, I think everyone would take Smart's over either of the other two. It shows better recruiting evaluations than Buzz, better buy-in than Wojo, and a better ability to send players to the NBA than both former Marquette coaches combined. Even if you take the five-stars out of the mix, Smart put more players that were not high school All-Americans in the NBA (Taylor, Hayes, Jones) than Buzz and Wojo did combined. And when it comes strictly to transfers out, Smart's average of 0.83 transfers per year is better than Wojo's 1.57 or Williams' 1.67.
However, Smart is the only one that will be coaching Marquette with immediate eligibility for all transfers, which stands to make it more difficult to retain players. Sure, Smart was better at keeping players when sitting out was the alternative, but will that retention ability hold up when young players with bright futures have the chance to go play at another similarly prestigious program tomorrow?
All culture for two years. That's the goal. And considering 9 scholarship players on the roster have up to 4 years of eligibility left, the success of that culture is a huge part of creating a sustainable foundation for the program. If the players buy in as well as they did at Texas, perhaps Marquette can better weather the future in an open transfer market. If nothing else, comparing his predecessor's to Smart's past shows what should be a brighter and more stable future at Marquette.
And we're off, #mubb season is underway
Friday, November 12, 2021
Experience and the Upset
On opening night of the college basketball season, there were six high-major teams that suffered losses in guarantee games, which is when the more prominent team pays the smaller team money to come play in their arena. So not only did #25 Virginia lose to Navy, but they PAID for that loss, literally. And while opening night featured the highest quantity, it was last night that gave the biggest moment when UC Riverside hit a three-quarter court shot at the buzzer to stun Arizona State.
Considering the high number of returning players this year to the college game, I decided to break down the experience levels and minutes continuity of those teams. It would seem that the more experienced teams would be better suited to go into a hostile environment and pull off the upset. That seemed especially salient considering the New Hampshire team Marquette will play tonight has a number of experienced players. Here are the results, with New Hampshire added in based on their opening game:
| Upset Team | Experience | Continuity | Victim |
| Miami (OH) | 23 | 10 | Georgia Tech |
| New Hampshire | 64 | 29 | Marquette |
| The Citadel | 182 | 78 | Pittsburgh |
| Navy | 46 | 86 | Virginia |
| UC Riverside | 184 | 90 | Arizona State |
| Northern Illinois | 50 | 93 | Washington |
| UC San Diego | 194 | 100 | California |
| Western Illinois | 78 | 113 | Nebraska |
Considering there are 358 Division I teams, all but one are top-100 in Minutes Continuity (and all are 68th percentile or better) and the only one that isn't top-100 is Western Illinois, who is top-100 in Experience. Further, four of the seven are top-100 in Experience and all are at least in the 46th percentile. While this is a small sample size early on, clearly having experience and continuity didn't hurt these teams when it came to upsetting high majors.
I would again point to New Hampshire. I had to manually calculate their numbers, but using kenpom's tools, it was pretty easy. They would rank #64 in Experience and #29 in Continuity, making them a dangerous buy game opponent. I would also point out that Northern Illinois (who upset Washington) is the next guarantee game Marquette plays, and future opponent Jackson State is #85 in Experience and #110 in Continuity. If the first week is any indication, Marquette shouldn't take any of their guarantee games lightly, because sometimes that guaranteed paycheck has a loss written into the memo line.
Monday, November 08, 2021
The Shaka era begins, as does a new Scrambled Eggs bit
Wednesday, November 03, 2021
UCLA Preview, 2021-22
UCLA Bruins
December 11, Fiserv Forum, 1:30 pm
Head Coach: Mick Cronin (406-193 overall, 41-22 at UCLA)
Three-Year NET Average: 70.3
Three-Year Kenpom Average: 64.3
Projected 2021-22 T-Rank: 2
Projected Starters: PG Tyger Campbell (5'11" Jr), SG Johnny Juzang (6'6" Jr), SF Jules Bernard (6'6" Sr), PF Jaime Jacquez (6'6" Jr), C Cody Riley (6'9" Sr)
Hollywood couldn't have scripted a much better finish for UCLA than they had in 2021. Johnny Juzang had his star turn, averaging 22.8 ppg in the NCAA Tournament on a sparkling 58.0 eFG% and 37.5% from beyond the arc. They dispatched Michigan State (in overtime), BYU, Abilene Christian, Alabama (in overtime again), and Michigan before falling to Gonzaga in a third overtime contest on Jalen Suggs half-court buzzer beater. While the Bruins certainly deserve credit for that run, it's worth remembering how they got there. UCLA sputtered down the stretch, losing their last four and barely making it into the Tournament field. Before they rallied from 14 down against Michigan State, they were ranked #44 on kenpom, with losses to #83 Stanford, #85 Oregon State, #107 Washington State, and needing overtime to beat #112 Pepperdine and #113 Arizona State. Maybe it was the analytics underrating the Pac-12 or maybe UCLA just wasn't all that good, but they did find lightning in the NCAA bottle. They escaped Michigan State and they did win all those games in March. All of that counts, but it took a remarkable run to get from where they were before the NCAA Tournament started to where they are ranked today.
They do bring just about everyone back from that run, starting with Tyger Campbell. He's a reliable floor general that distributes and protects the ball. Juzang, Jules Bernard, and Jaime Jacquez give Cronin a trio of versatile, athletic wings that can all shoot the ball and defend almost any position. Up front, Riley is a space-eater that can score down low and keep the boards clean on both ends. In addition, the Bruins bring in a five-star recruit in Peyton Watson that could push Bernard for minutes with his length and athleticism while Rutgers transfer Myles Johnson is a true rim protector that will offer a change of pace from Riley and could emerge as the team's leading center by the season's end. With those two additions, there is a viable argument that UCLA will be a better team because they have legitimate pieces that improve what was already there on last year's Final Four team.
Perhaps the most surprising thing under Mick Cronin is how UCLA has remained an offense-first program. While there's no automatic shooter, everyone they put on the floor 1-4 is a threat to make threes. They run a highly deliberate offense, avoiding the fast break in favor of half court sets. Campbell pulls the strings and having a player like Juzang who can break any individual defender down is an incredibly lethal combination. That said, they do like the midrange (5th in the number of 2PFGs away from the rim) which is among the most inefficient means of scoring. Defensively, this team still hasn't fully come around to Cronin's style. They try to keep teams away from the rim and are good at limiting second chance opportunities. Having a shot-blocker like Johnson could really help the rest of the team extend the defense further out. So much of what UCLA does comes down to shooting. It seems basic, but if they have an off night and their opponents are hitting from outside, their scheme isn't going to disrupt that and they are vulnerable.
So what is UCLA? Are they the team currently receiving first place votes in the AP Poll? Are they the team that was ranked 44th on kenpom going into the tournament last year, albeit slightly older? It's worth noting that in the NCAA Tournament, UCLA had a free throw defense of 62.4% (63/101) and three point defense of 26.3% (30/114). Over the course of the season, those relatively random statistics in terms of what can be controlled for would have ranked #2 and #1 nationally. Four of their opponents shot below their season free throw average and five shot below their season three point average. Over a full season, those numbers are not sustainable. They certainly have a lot of talent and have the potential to compete at the highest level, as last year showed, but their players will have to carry that step forward into the new season and the new pieces will have to fit in seamlessly if they are going to be as good as the pundits are saying. They will likely be a contender for the Pac-12 title and have the ability to be fighting for a protected seed in March, but anyone penciling them into a 1-seed or Final Four again is probably being a bit premature based on the reality of what they are as currently constructed.
Marquette Connection: Last year's UCLA tied the record for the lowest seed (11) to ever advance to the Final Four while also becoming just the second team in history to advance from the First Four to the Final Four, matching marks both accomplished by Marquette head coach, Shaka Smart. Smart took his 2011 VCU team on a similar run to the Final Four. While this will mark the first time two coaches that went First Four to Final Four square off head-to-head, it won't be the first time Smart and Cronin have faced off. They first met in December, 2014, when Smart's VCU team traveled to Cincinnati and laid a 68-47 beat-down on Cronin's Bearcats. The two almost met for a second time last year. Had Smart's Texas Longhorns not been upset by Abilene Christian on two free throws by a 59% free throw shooter with 2 seconds to play, Texas would've faced UCLA in the second round.
Tuesday, November 02, 2021
Kansas State Preview, 2021-22
Kansas State Wildcats
December 8, Manhattan, KS, 8:00 pm
Head Coach: Bruce Weber (483-285 overall, 170-130 at Kansas State)
Three-Year NET Average: 99.7
Three-Year Kenpom Average: 85.7
Projected 2021-22 T-Rank: 96
Mike McGuirl is 0-2 against Marquette in his career
Photo from Kansas State Sports
Projected Starters: PG Nijel Pack (6'0" So), SG Mike McGuirl (6'2" Sr), SF Mark Smith (6'5" Sr), PF Ismael Massoud (6'8" Jr), C Davion Bradford (7'0" So)
Kansas State fans looking for ammunition to part ways with Bruce Weber got more of it last season. The warning signs were there early as they lost to UNLV and Division II Fort Hays State and barely beat UMKC, UW-Milwaukee, and Nebraska-Omaha, but it was punctuated by a 13-game losing streak to start 2021. That was largely down to four true freshmen in the rotation and while the results were disappointing, the grown the of the class remains a reason for optimism, though Weber has gone just 7-29 in Big 12 play since their 2019 Big 12 title season and will be feeling the heat if they finish near the bottom of the league again as they are projected this season.
Mike McGuirl is the only player returning from the K-State teams that Marquette swept in their 2018/2019 home-and-home series. He's a heady veteran who finally found his footing with Nijel Pack late in the season as they did finish the season 4-1 in games played together down the stretch with the only loss a tight contest against eventual National Champions Baylor. Pack is a quick lead guard that is lethal from deep and has a tight handle. On the wings, Mark Smith (Missouri) and Ismael Massoud (Wake Forest) are experienced wings that can stretch the floor and allow Weber to put four shooters around big man Davion Bradford. Off the bench, Weber will bring transfer point guard Markquis Nowell (Little Rock) and a pair of sophomore wings, Selton Miguel and Luke Kasubke, to provide depth.
Weber made a definite shift last year that will likely continue into 2021-22. He went away from the two bigs he typically plays and went to playing four-out surrounding big man Bradford. What really stood out about that change was how it impacted the defense. The smaller Wildcats played faster, were able to limit opponent three-point opportunities, thus driving down their eFG% defense and increasing their ability to turn opponents over. They also shot better from two, better from three, and drew fouls at a higher rate. With a deeper team that has the added experience of Smith and Massoud on the wings, expect the four-out look to continue.
It has to be noted that three-point percentage defense is considered to be largely down to luck rather than skill, and during that stretch K-State's opponents shot 26.2% from three as opposed to 38.8% before, but the defensive improvement and overall team improvement would've been reflected regardless. With an extra year of experience for last year's freshmen, a deeper team through the transfer window, and the momentum of last season, this Wildcat team should be better than they were last year. In many ways, banking on defense and surrounding a big man with shooters and wings will lead to K-State looking like a slower-paced version of this year's Marquette team. This should be a tight contest that will likely be decided based on whose shots are falling that night.
Marquette Connection: The 2018-19 Marquette team had come up short in early opportunities against Indiana and Kansas, so when #12 Kansas State came to town, it was a massive opportunity to get on the right side of a big game. Early on, the Wildcats took a 19-15 lead, but then it was Markus Howard's time to shine. He scored all the points in a 12-1 run. In the second half, Howard took note of the Wildcats getting in foul trouble and went at Dean Wade and Makol Mawien, fouling both of them out. When the dust settled, Howard had scored 45 points, the most ever by a Marquette player in a home game, and Marquette came out with the 83-71 win. It would be the first of three home victories over the #12 team in the country in the month of December (Wisconsin and Buffalo both came in ranked #12) and when Marquette won at the Octagon the following year, it was the first sweep of a high-major home-and-home series since sweeping Big 12's Iowa State more than 20 years earlier in 1996 and 1997.
Monday, November 01, 2021
UW-Madison Preview, 2021-22
UW-Madison Badgers
December 4, Madison, WI, 11:30 am
Head Coach: Greg Gard (119-70)
Three-Year NET Average: 21.0
Three-Year Kenpom Average: 17.3
Projected 2021-22 T-Rank: 54
Brad Davison protesting a technical after punching someone in the groin...again
Photo by Noah K Murray | USA Today Sports
Projected Starters: PG Chucky Hepburn (6'1" Fr), SG Brad Davison (6'4" Sr), SF Johnny Davis (6'5" So), PF Tyler Wahl (6'9" Jr), C Chris Vogt (7'1" Sr)
In mid-January, everything was looking up for UW-Madison. They were 12-3, ranked in the top-10 of both polls, climbed to #8 in Kenpom, and looked to be heading for another protected seed in the NCAA Tournament. Then they lost 8 of their final 12 regular season games, split a pair of contests with Penn State and Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, and earned a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They managed to knock North Carolina and Roy Williams out in the first round for the first and last time of the coach's illustrious career before being thoroughly drubbed by Baylor in the second round. In the offseason, scandal broke out as now-former UW-Madison assistant Alando Tucker allegedly leaked a tape of a meeting between coaches and players where the Badger squad decried the actions of Greg Gard. That was followed by all but one of the seniors that were eligible to return departing, leaving only serial flopper and groin-puncher Brad Davison as a returning regular starter.
Davison will be the clear leader of this team. He averaged 12.1 ppg last year and will likely shoulder even more of the offensive load. Davison is terrible (27.5%) shooting inside the arc, likely down to referees getting wise to him just throwing himself into players to try to draw fouls (he had the lowest free throw rate of his career last season) but he's reliable from distance, making 39.1% of his three-point attempts. Chucky Hepburn joins him in the backcourt. The freshman is a crafty player who is quick but, as is appropriate for Gard's Swing offense, doesn't play fast. Johnny Davis flashed potential last year, showing the ability to score inside and out while using his quickness to defend effectively. Up front, veteran reserve Tyler Wahl and Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt provide size and strength but neither are particularly efficient offensively and will have to be more productive than they've been in the past. To Gard's credit, he does have a number of young players to lean on, as Ben Carlson, Steven Crowl, Matthew Mors, and Lorne Bowman all are expected to contribute while Wake Forest transfer Jahcobi Neath gives another back court option.
Stylistically, you know what you're going to get with UW-Madison. Last year was the fastest pace played under Gard, which was still #320 nationally in offensive possession length and #328 in overall tempo. The goal is to create mismatches with cuts and screens, either isolating their bigs in the post or getting open looks from deep. But the true calling card of this team is defense. Critics of analytics will point to how UW-Madison is "overrated" but the reason for that is because they are consistently great defensively. Gard has had a top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency in 6 of his 7 seasons in Madison. They play tight man-to-man defense and excel at staying in front of their man, which allows them to contest everything. In addition to size inside, their guards and wings like Davison and Davis are competent rebounders so they limit second chance opportunities.
On paper, this looks like a team about to take a major step back. It's easy to look at the 2018 team where it was Ethan Happ and a ton of young guys as an example of Gard's system not favoring a roster this young. The difference this time is Davison, Davis, and Wahl all played major minutes last year. Transfers Vogt and Neath have played significant minutes against quality competition. And off the bench, instead of the freshmen from 2018 Gard has sophomores to fill in for starts and provide depth. Expect another tough defensive unit that manages to get some late-in-the-shot-clock bailouts from Davison. If this was Bo Ryan, they'd be penciled in to the top-20 and a top-4 Big 10 finish. Gard hasn't earned that yet. While this won't be Gard's best team, their style will earn them a big win or two (Gard has at least one Kenpom top-10 victory every season he's been at UW-Madison) and should have them at least fighting to be on the bubble when the end of the season rolls around.
Marquette Connection: While Brad Davison is climbing up the stat charts at UW-Madison--he's 4th in career starts, 5th in made threes, 12th in steals, and 19th in points--he could accomplish another feat this year that no Badger has performed in more than 40 years. That would be losing to Marquette four times in his career. While Marquette did have a 4-game winning streak from 1981-84, no Badger was on all four of those teams and the two squads didn't play in the 1984-85 season. The last Badger to accomplish the feat was Bill Pearson in 1978. Pearson really stands out because he lost to Marquette SIX times as the teams played twice in the 1975-76 and 1976-77 seasons, with Marquette winning every contest between the two in his career. Here's hoping Davison can add this piece of history to his already-ignominious career.