Revisiting Luck

Providence & Wisconsin share more than a non-conference game in common

Photo by John Fisher | Getty Images

When I put out these articles, I like to do more than just put up an S-Curve without context. I prefer to add a bit of information and research that shows the thinking behind the S-Curve or what the numbers and stats I'm looking at will mean in the future. With that in mind, I dug into an old article from years past and decided to see what it might augur for 2022.

The High Risk Game of Luck (January 16, 2019)

At the time, Marquette fans weren't happy when I pointed out how the 2019-20 team's (then) projected 3-seed was likely to lead to an early NCAA exit. The TL;DR version of the article is that teams who rank highly in Kenpom's luck stat, which is usually characterized by having big margins in losses and small margins in wins, can be overseeded, which results in earlier than expected NCAA exits. Consider Providence, who is 8-2 in games against top-100 opponents but has a -4 scoring differential in those 10 games (yes, that's real). Teams overseeded by 10+ based on kenpom's rankings and rated top-50 in luck tend to lose early in the NCAAs. At the time, only one of the 10 qualifying teams in 5 years had made it out of the first weekend, only one had exceeded their seed projection, and they weren't the same team.

So what's happened to overseeded lucky teams since then and who might fit the bill this year? Let's pull the data back up and look:

Year	Team	Luck	Kenpom	Seed	Overseeded	Eliminated
2014	Iowa St	43	24	3	12	Sweet 16
2014	Umass	40	50	8	18	1st Round
2014	Colorado	3	68	8	36	1st Round
2014	NC State	39	66	12	18	2nd Round
2015	Maryland	2	32	4	16	2nd Round
2015	Oregon	5	46	8	14	2nd Round
2016	Temple	17	90	10	50	1st Round
2017	Maryland	39	43	6	19	1st Round
2017	Seton Hall	43	51	9	15	1st Round
2018	Xavier	1	14	1	10	2nd Round
2019	Washington	13	48	9	12	2nd Round
2019	St. John's	46	84	11	38	First Four
2019	Temple	35	75	11	29	First Four
2021	Kansas	44	22	3	10	2nd Round
2021	Clemson	19	42	7	14	1st Round
2021	Missouri	43	51	9	15	1st Round
2021	Wichita St	23	74	11	30	First Four
2021	Michigan St	22	56	11	12	First Four
2022	Wisconsin	9	25	3	13	???
2022	Providence	1	47	5	27	???
2022	West Virginia	48	53	9	17	???
2022	TCU	38	61	10	21	???
2022	Miami	19	63	10	23	???

Our sample size is now up to 18 teams and only 2/18 exceeded results based on their seed. Only 1/18 made it out of the first weekend. What does that tell you? Obviously check back after the official NCAA Bracket comes out, but if you see Wisconsin, Providence, or West Virginia in your bracket, don't expect to see them in the second weekend. If you see TCU or Miami in the First Four, recent history indicates you won't see them on Thursday or Friday, as those teams underachieve to the level of not even playing in the main bracket (the last four First Four at-large losing teams all fit this criteria).

Let's look at the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-AUBURN 2-GONZAGA 3-BAYLOR 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-Ucla 7-VILLANOVA 6-ARIZONA 5-PURDUE

3-Seeds: 9-Lsu 10-DUKE 11-Michigan State 12-Wisconsin

4-Seeds: 16-HOUSTON 15-Kentucky 14-Tennessee 13-Texas Tech

5-Seeds: 17-Connecticut 18-Ohio State 19-Illinois 20-Providence

6-Seeds: 24-Usc 23-Xavier 22-Iowa State 21-Marquette

7-Seeds: 25-COLORADO STATE 26-Alabama 27-Byu 28-St. Mary's

8-Seeds: 32-Seton Hall 31-LOYOLA CHICAGO 30-Wake Forest 29-Texas

9-Seeds: 33-San Francisco 34-West Virginia 35-MURRAY STATE 36-Indiana

10-Seeds: 40-Iowa 39-Tcu 38-Miami 37-Oklahoma

11-Seeds: 41-Arkansas 42-Creighton 43-Boise State 44-San Diego State 45-North Carolina

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-UAB 48-DAVIDSON 47-Belmont 46-Wyoming

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-TOLEDO 54-OAKLAND

14-Seeds: 58-TOWSON 57-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 56-WAGNER 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-SOUTH ALABAMA 61-LIBERTY 62-UC IRVINE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS STATE 67-NORFOLK STATE 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN 65-LONGWOOD 64-MONTANA STATE 63-NAVY

 

Last Four Byes: Iowa, Arkansas, Creighton, Boise State

Last Four In: San Diego State, North Carolina, Wyoming, Belmont

First Four Out: Oregon, Florida State, Mississippi State, Notre Dame

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Michigan, SMU, Florida