Lessons Revealed

Drew Timme reminding everyone Gonzaga is #1
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images

The NCAA released their Top-16 seeds on Saturday to give us an "As It Stands" snapshot of where they are so far. Cracked Sidewalks had 15 of the 16 teams correct, with our #17 Texas edging our #16 LSU (more on the Tigers later). We also had Duke and Villanova flipped between the 2/3 lines and Illinois and Wisconsin flipped between our 3/4 lines. There are a number of lessons to be learned from the Reveal. Let's break it down.

The 1-Seeds: We correctly predicted Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, and Kansas on the 1-line. There are three things of note here. First, Gonzaga did not have the top-end wins of other teams, but their metric dominance pushed them to the top of the field. However Auburn over Arizona and Kansas over Baylor and Kentucky indicates resume is the tiebreaker when it's close. Further down the bracket, that likely bodes well for teams like Iowa and San Diego State with dominant (compared to the bubble) metrics and teams like Creighton and Rutgers (great top-line wins) when it comes to those final spots.

Numbers Alone Aren't Enough: Houston had the highest ever NCAA metric to be left out of the Top-16. While we expected that, it could send a message to teams like North Carolina and Wake Forest that quality metrics without wins over the field won't get you the benefit of the doubt.

Head-to-Head: In the past, head to head has not been considered a major factor. However this time we did hear mention of Illinois' win over Wisconsin and UCLA's common opponent record compared to Providence. These seem to be only used as tiebreakers when teams are evaluated closely, but on the bubble teams like Oklahoma and BYU that have a number of wins over other bubble competitors could be the difference maker.

Injuries (don't) Matter: Injuries to Illinois stars were mentioned, but I don't buy that as the reason Illinois made the 3-line as much as the head-to-head mentioned above. Why? LSU, which was the only team we had in the Reveal that wasn't in (our #17, Texas, trumped LSU) also wasn't even mentioned as one of the teams close to the protected seeds. Entering the Reveal with Xavier Pinson playing 20+ minutes, LSU was 17-1 with wins over Kentucky and Tennessee and their only loss to Auburn. When he wasn't fully healthy, they were 2-6. Their record was still close enough to warrant a 5/6 seed without him, but that they weren't even mentioned seems to bode ill for teams like VCU or Florida that might be hoping for a bad stretch without a star player to be viewed more favorably by the Selection Committee.

Using the Top-16 as a reset, here's our updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 6-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Illinois

4-Seeds: 16-Texas 15-Providence 14-Ucla 13-Wisconsin

5-Seeds: 17-HOUSTON 18-Alabama 19-Connecticut 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-St. Mary's 23-Arkansas 22-Lsu 21-Usc

7-Seeds: 25-Michigan State 26-Marquette 27-BOISE STATE 28-Iowa State

8-Seeds: 32-Xavier 31-Iowa 30-Seton Hall 29-San Francisco

9-Seeds: 33-Colorado State 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Wake Forest

10-Seeds: 40-Notre Dame 39-Creighton 38-Miami 37-Tcu

11-Seeds: 41-San Diego State 42-North Carolina 43-Smu 44-Michigan 45-Byu 46-Vcu

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-LOYOLA CHICAGO 47-DAVIDSON

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-COLGATE 63-TEXAS STATE

Last Four Byes: Creighton, Notre Dame, San Diego State, North Carolina

Last Four In: SMU, Michigan, BYU, VCU

First Four Out: Memphis, Florida, Indiana, Rutgers

Next Four Out: Kansas State, Belmont, Oregon, Oklahoma

Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

A-10: 2