Who Will Score? Part I: Marquette

Justin Lewis has his eyes on the NBA Draft

Photo from @jusbuckets on Instagram

With Marquette losing four of their top seven points per game scorers from the 2021-22 season, Cracked Sidewalks is going to comb the history of Marquette offenses to see what happened when teams lost significant scoring as we try to answer the question of "Who Will Score" in 2022-23.

To answer this, Cracked Sidewalks went back and looked at the past 24 seasons of Marquette Basketball. We started by looking at the total number of points scored. We then looked at the number of significant points lost, which were points scored by players that averaged 5.0 ppg or more. Using those two numbers, we could establish the percentage of significant points lost and match that up with the team's Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rank as well as the Rank Change for the following year once they lost that percentage of points.

The reason for that number was because we wanted to include Kuath as a floor, but if we included everyone, we would be looking at walk-ons and garbage time players who don't usually factor heavily into results. Apologies to the Duane Wilsons (4.8 ppg in 2016-17) of the Marquette world, but you didn't have enough offensive output to be a major factor in most games in your final Marquette season, even if that Villanova hesi will live forever in Marquette lore. Using those numbers, we were able to determine the percentage of significant points lost, compare that to the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rank on Kenpom, and evaluate if losing volume scoring equated to a loss in team offensive quality.

Duane Wilson vs Villanova, a little Marquette basketball porn
 GIF courtesy of Anonymous Eagle

Why 24 seasons? It allowed us to capture the complete Marquette careers of Tom Crean, Buzz Williams, and Steve Wojciechowski, as well as the last year of Mike Deane and the first year of Shaka Smart. We didn't go further because, well, kenpom doesn't go back much further that. But it does seem like a pretty solid sample size. We'll start with the raw data, but since it's a lot to digest, we will break that down into smaller bits to look for trends.

Year	Total Pts	Sig Pts Lost	% Pts	AdjO Rk	Rk Change
2021-22	2369	1329	56.1	64	??
2020-21	1883	1450	77.0	94	30
2019-20	2333	1413	60.6	14	-80
2018-19	2629	836	31.8	32	18
2017-18	2846	757	26.6	12	-20
2016-17	2631	1034	39.3	8	-4
2015-16	2517	561	22.3	116	108
2014-15	2083	1094	52.5	154	38
2013-14	2310	1631	70.6	97	-57
2012-13	2382	1045	43.9	24	-73
2011-12	2638	1237	52.2	40	16
2010-11	2782	900	32.3	22	-18
2009-10	2485	1142	46.0	21	-1
2008-09	2739	1652	60.3	9	-12
2007-08	2658	193	7.3	20	11
2006-07	2443	0	0.0	62	42
2005-06	2325	872	37.5	27	-35
2004-05	2080	1006	48.4	62	35
2003-04	2207	546	24.7	44	-18
2002-03	2589	1219	47.1	2	-42
2001-02	2413	999	41.4	30	28
2000-01	1902	544	28.6	68	38
1999-00	1820	422	23.2	104	36
1998-99	1823	427	23.4	193	89

The first takeaway is that while Marquette is losing 56.1% of last year's points from significant scorers, that isn't the high-water mark. 2021, 2014, 2020, and 2009 all saw teams lose more than 60% of their scoring. And while 56.1% is in the upper range, that is just one of 12 totals where teams lost 40+% of their scoring from significant scorers, so there's plenty of comparable company. To make this easier to digest, let's group these out a bit.

Major Point Losses: 60+%

Year	Total Pts	Sig Pts Lost	% Pts	AdjO Rk	Rk Change
2020-21	1883	1450	77.0	94	30
2013-14	2310	1631	70.6	97	-57
2019-20	2333	1413	60.6	14	-80
2008-09	2739	1652	60.3	9	-12

The first thing that jumps out here is that three of the four teams in this group saw declines in the subsequent years. Despite that, the team that lost the most in 2020-21, when Wojo was fired and the top-5 scorers left, was the one that saw significant improvement. Shaka's new system, player improvement, and smart roster additions made up for those departures. The biggest falloff came when Markus Howard left, joined by Sacar Anim and Brendan Bailey. The problem there, however, was not so much a lack of quantity (Dawson Garcia, DJ Carton, and Koby McEwen all averaged 10+ ppg) and more one of quality as no one could replicate Howard's efficiency at that usage rate.

One thing that stands out the most might be 2008-09, which was when the Amigos left Marquette. Despite their departure, the 9th ranked offense only fell to 21st thanks to players like Lazar Hayward, Jimmy Butler, and Maurice Acker providing efficient offense and scoring volume. In this case, I would point to smart coaching as the reason the decline was relatively minimal. In 2009-10 Buzz Williams focused on shooting (5th nationally in 3PFG%) and turnover rate (7th lowest) while also slowing the pace (from 67.5 to 62.3 possessions per game) in order to maximize the impact of his shooters. What this (and 2020-21) tells you is that you can lose a ton of scoring and still maintain an efficient offense if the coach is good enough to overcome the loss of even efficient scorers.

It's also worth noting that the 2021 and 2014 teams represent two of just three times that Marquette lost five players who averaged 5+ ppg, though with radically different next season results.

Moderate Point Losses: 40-59%

Year	Total Pts	Sig Pts Lost	% Pts	AdjO Rk	Rk Change
2021-22	2369	1329	56.1	64	??
2014-15	2083	1094	52.5	154	38
2011-12	2638	1237	52.2	40	16
2004-05	2080	1006	48.4	62	35
2002-03	2589	1219	47.1	2	-42
2009-10	2485	1142	46.0	21	-1
2012-13	2382	1045	43.9	24	-73
2001-02	2413	999	41.4	30	28

If ever there was a chart that shows how meaningless retaining scoring volume is, this is probably it. We don't know the fate of the 2022 departures, but four of the other seven teams actually improved their offensive rank. If you add up the previous seven, the +/- rank comes out to 1, which means the average rank change of teams losing between 40-59% of their scoring over this period was 0.14. There were certainly some big swings in there, but by and large the average change is effectively zero.

It also seems worth noting that while there are some great departing classes on this list, such as Crowder and DJO in 2012 (16 spot improvement), Diener and Mason in 2005 (35 spot improvement), and Wade and Jackson in 2003 (42 spot decline), the biggest decline in the group came from the second smallest percentage of significant points lost when Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan, and Trent Lockett left in 2013.

Minor Point Losses: 20-39%

Year	Total Pts	Sig Pts Lost	% Pts	AdjO Rk	Rk Change
2016-17	2631	1034	39.3	8	-4
2005-06	2325	872	37.5	27	-35
2010-11	2782	900	32.3	22	-18
2018-19	2629	836	31.8	32	18
2000-01	1902	544	28.6	68	38
2017-18	2846	757	26.6	12	-20
2003-04	2207	546	24.7	44	-18
1998-99	1823	427	23.4	193	89
1999-00	1820	422	23.2	104	36
2015-16	2517	561	22.3	116	108

The overall +/- rank for these 10 seasons comes out to +194, which initially might seem like it supports there being a big benefit to returning players, but I would point to the circumstances around those seasons as well. How much of that massive 1998-99 to 1999-2000 jump was personnel change and how much was it having a flat out better offensive coach as that was the year Tom Crean replaced Mike Deane. How much was 2015-16 a product of not losing much (really just Henry Ellenson) and how much was adding Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey, Sam Hauser, and Katin Reinhardt? And why would half of the seasons in this category see the offense get worse?

Minimal Point Losses: 0-19%

Year	Total Pts	Sig Pts Lost	% Pts	AdjO Rk	Rk Change
2007-08	2658	193	7.3	20	11
2006-07	2443	0	0.0	62	42

Again, this might indicate some support about returning scorers, but the numbers here are in line with the improvement seasons in the 40-59% category, so maybe the takeaway is that the Amigos got better the longer they were here. Further, two seasons is a pretty small sample size, so it's hard to take much away from this. What this really shows is that losing volume scoring doesn't tell you much about what will happen the next season.

Players step up into scoring roles because the game demands it. When Dwyane Wade left, it was Travis Diener and Steve Novak. When the Amigos left, it was Hayward and Butler. When Crowder and DJO left, it was Blue, Jamil Wilson, and Gardner. When Ellenson left, it was Howard and Rowsey. And when Garcia, Carton, and McEwen left, it was Justin Lewis, who improved his 7.8 ppg with a 93.8 Adjusted Offensive Rating as a freshman to 16.8 ppg with a 101.9 Adjusted Offensive Rating in an NBA-caliber season.

Summary

Ultimately, at Marquette there has been virtually no correlation between losing volume scoring and a comparable decline in offensive efficiency. Some teams that lost a lot, like 2004-05 with Travis Diener and Dameon Mason departing or 2011-12 with Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom graduating, actually improved the next year in terms of offensive efficiency. Last year's team had to replace more significant scoring than any other season in 24 years and not only didn't get worse, they got significantly better on the offensive end.

Crowder & DJO left in 2012, but Vander Blue & Jamil Wilson led a better 2013 offense

Photo by Christian Peterson | Getty Images

At the other end, some teams that lost relatively little, such as the 2003-04 team with Scott Merritt and Terry Sanders or the 2017-18 team that really only lost Andrew Rowsey still took steps back despite retaining most of their scoring. And sometimes these do go to expectation, such as the 2019-20 team losing Markus Howard and Sacar Anim as the team took a big step back or the 2006-07 team retaining all of their significant scoring and improving significantly with that continuity. The bottom line is that the simple loss of volume scoring is not a guarantee that a team will step back offensively, so Marquette fans concerned about the loss of Lewis and Morsell may want to pump the brakes before worrying about next season's offense.