The NCAA Tournament Must Expand or Die

NCAA President Charlie Baker is preparing for tournament expansion
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow | NCAA Photos

This week in an interview with Seth Davis, NCAA President Charlie Baker said they are looking at expanding the NCAA Tournament. Proposals are focused on expanding to 72 or 76 teams. Diehard fans may not like it but the reality is if the NCAA Tournament is going to continue to exist beyond 2032, it MUST expand. This is a simple economic reality. In 2022, we laid out a plan for expansion to 80. Given the recent news, it's time to revisit the topic.

Here are the topics we are going to discuss:

1. Explain why expansion is necessary.
2. Establish a target expansion number that fits within the current November-early April calendar
   
3. Retain automatic bids for all 32 leagues.
4. Practical implementation of an 80-team tournament.
   
5. Rebutting counter-points people will likely make.
   

Readers need to understand expansion is coming. This is not an opinion and going back to 64 is not an option (or rather, not in a way anyone wants, but more on that later). It is a simple fact that the NCAA Tournament field must grow. If it does not, the NCAA Tournament will not exist beyond 2032. This premise is the reality we begin this article with.

I write this as someone who has watched the NCAA Tournament fervently since I was a teenager. I love the Tournament, I love the pageantry and passion of college basketball. I love the underdogs and the wall-to-wall days of games. Everything included here is my attempt to continue the discussion of how to not only save the NCAA Tournament, but preserve the best things about it. If you too want to see the NCAA Tournament survive, I only ask that you read and share this article. Maybe if the conversation gets loud enough and is heard by those influential in college basketball, there's a chance we get a model that keeps the automatic bids, keeps the Cinderella stories, while acknowledging the reality that the NCAA Tournament needs to provide more profit to the high-major leagues to remain viable. This is not about whether or not the NCAA should expand the tournament, but determining the best way to do it when it does.

Why Expansion is Necessary

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey was co-chair of the NCAA Transformation Committee that recommended NCAA postseason tournaments for sports with over 200 teams to invite 25% of their members as a guideline. Currently the NCAA Tournament invites 68 of 364 teams, just 18.7% of the teams. This is a far cry from the number the Transformation Committee called for and significantly less than in 1985 when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams of 286 member institutions (22.4%). Sankey has also called for the NCAA to stop "giving away" bids to small conference teams. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips, Big 10 Commissioner Tony Pettiti, and Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark have all called for expansion. And while in 1985 the top-6 leagues (including Big East and Pac-12) had 55 combined teams the current P4 are comprised of 68 teams.

From an economic and ratings perspective, the NCAA Tournament needs the P4 members to continue participating if the tournament will be economically viable. NCAA Tournament ratings hinge heavily on who is playing. Andrei Greska at Paint Touches broke down the ratings from 2019-2023 based on who was playing. He broke teams into two categories which yielded three game types. The first were Power-5 teams (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) and the second was Non-P5 (all other leagues including the Big East). After the grid, we will refer to these leagues as the Power-4 due to the contraction of the Pac-12 as a high-major league. Here are the ratings disparities for the three game types possible from those two groups:

This shows clearly that when two Power-4 teams play, they draw significantly more attention than when they do not. If there is only one P4 team, the ratings drop by 28.7% and if there is no P4 team the numbers are cut more than in half. Quite simply, in order to maximize the value of the NCAA Tournament going forward, they will need the P4 teams to be involved. The NCAA must keep the P4 in the fold so they do not break off to create a new playoff format that favors them even more over non-P4 teams the way they did with the BCS football playoff.

A breakaway tournament could have a 64-team field, which would appeal to traditionalists, and do so by inviting only their members. It might take a couple years for fans to get used to 16-seeds like Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Arizona State, but ultimately an underdog is an underdog if it's the best game on TV. Maybe they invite the Big East or a few mid-majors, but a new contract using P4 vs P4 ratings would make more money than the current NCAA Tournament setup and the money involved would ensure no one from outside the power structure would say no. Last year there were 56 P4 and Big East teams in the NCAA Tournament or invited to the NIT, and that's without going to the bottom of these leagues.

College basketball fans were happy to embrace N.C. State as an underdog
 Photo by Joe Sargent | Getty Images

Why would the P4 leagues want to establish their own championship where they control the money allocation and inclusion criteria like they did with the BCS? Quite simply, the NCAA Tournament is woefully compensated for its value. In 2016, the NCAA agreed to an 8-year extension of the existing NCAA Tournament contract. At the time, the contract was scheduled to end in 2024. There was no need to extend the contract at that time, but they doubled the existing length without significantly increasing revenue in that time period. From the outside, it looks like a fiscal mistake. Compare the value of the NBA television contract with that of the NCAA:

From the 1970s, the NCAA Tournament contract generally lagged slightly behind the NBA, but was relatively competitive from a financial perspective. But in 2016, when the NCAA was extending their existing deal, the NBA negotiated a new deal that nearly tripled their revenue. And while you see a slight uptick with the 8-year extension in 2024, the NBA will more than double their revenue again. In the time since the NCAA extended their contract, the NBA will have gone through two revenue spikes that increased their national revenue stream by roughly seven times. But it's not just the NBA:

Strikes and gaps in national broadcast contracts led to dropoffs in both the MLB and NHL, but in 2013, MLB and the NCAA Tournament were nearly identical, but MLB signed a new deal that more than doubled their revenue, and they again had a significant jump in 2021. The NHL had a minimal national contract that more than tripled in 2022.

The bottom line is this. The NCAA Tournament is massively undervalued. In the time period that other leagues have doubled, tripled, or septupled their media rights deal, the NCAAT has barely increased. Compare the percentage increases of the NCAA compared to other professional and collegiate leagues:

Currently the NCAA Tournament is worth about $1.1 billion per year. But in terms of audience, it often outdraws its closest peer, the NBA. From 1997 through 2021, the NCAA Championship Game outdrew the highest rated NBA Finals game in 14 of the 24 years:

So why is expansion necessary? Because the money generated by the NCAA Tournament is inadequate, the current TV contract ensures it will remain that way for 8 more years, the Power-4 Commissioners are all calling for expansion, the NCAA Tournament needs the P4 programs to drive ratings for leverage to increase the contract value when the opportunity comes up, and the P4 now have a large enough membership that they can put on a 64-team tournament of their own without additional NCAA member institutions. Outside of expansion, there is no other way for the NCAA to increase revenue as the P4 are demanding before 2032. As the title says, the NCAA Tournament must expand or die.

Expanding to 80

As mentioned above, the 1985 NCAA Tournament included 22.4% of the Division I membership. If the field went to 80 today, the inclusion number would be 22.0% of current Division I schools. To reach the Transformation Committee's 25% target, the number would be 91, which likely leads to a 96-team field. 80 is in alignment with the historic inclusion number and makes for a cleaner introduction to the Tournament.

The current format goes from 68 to 64 over two nights. Because of this, it allows for two games broadcast back to back on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Central Standard Time TV window is from 5:00 pm through 10:00 pm, with games tipping 5:30 and 8:00, barring games running over for delays or overtime. More First Four games would mean more First Four time slots. Using the current 30-minute delay between starts (typical for the First Round games) the schedule could change without really upsetting the prime time window much. Below, the first line shows the current approximate schedule, with two games getting about five and a half hours of programming. By increasing that to a total seven hour window, the NCAA could accommodate eight games per night on Tuesday and Wednesday with the vast majority in prime time:

On cable television, this would mean adding more channels. But while it might be difficult for cable, with streaming options this wouldn't be nearly as difficult. Whether it would be using Max, Paramount, Peacock, or a different streaming service, these games could be made available. And while no single app has the broadcast penetration of TruTV (about 90 million households) there are estimated to be slightly over 100 million households with high-speed internet. We are already seeing leagues put games exclusively on ESPN+, Max, and Peacock, there's no reason to think the NCAA couldn't do the same for the First Four sites, especially if there were at least one TV hub that could switch between games when they are in high leverage situations.

Charlie Baker has pointed out that stretching out the season beyond the first weekend in April is a non-starter because of the Masters. The current contract with CBS will not allow them to add an additional weekend, and even if they changed carriers after 2032, the NCAA would not want to compete with another major sporting event that takes up a full weekend when they would be trying to draw eyes to their most valuable games.

Give me more games like the 2022 First Four game between Notre Dame and Rutgers
 Photo by Jeff Dean | AP Photo

This is another reason why 80 is better than 96. In order to trim 96 to 64, you need to play 32 games, the same number of games played on the opening Thursday and Friday of the Tournament. Having Tuesday and Wednesday full-day marathons would tax all but the most diehard college basketball fans. An 80-team field allows the Tournament to stay with the prime time Tuesday/Wednesday schedule above while also giving more of a true NCAA Tournament feel to those days because it isn't just one game at a time.

Currently, the NCAA season fits nicely between the end of baseball in October and the Masters. While much of the season is competing with both NFL and college football, they are able to take center stage from mid-February through the first week of April before the Masters. It's done before the NBA or NHL playoffs start in full. The current schedule is perfect to maximize college basketball's impact while minimizing other sport competition.

Retain 32 Automatic Bids

We are including the soon-to-be-reformed Pac-12 as one of the automatic bids. That said, Greg Sankey has already floated removing the automatic bids from the field, even if that comment looked a bit silly after his SEC program Kentucky lost to Oakland out of the Horizon. Nonetheless, it's clear that while tournament expansion with more at-large bids for high-majors to potentially earn is a goal, getting even more bids by cutting out the low and mid majors is also a consideration. Take a look at the 2023 payouts by league:

Ultimately, while every round of the NCAA tournament has value to the teams and the leagues they represent, it is the deep runs that really shift money away from the big boys. It isn't the 18 conferences earning $1M each, it's the when CUSA, or the Ivy, or the NEC have one team taking multiple credits that hits the bigger leagues. With the reminder that this is about finding the best way to expand, and being cognizant that benefiting the P4 leagues is necessary for NCAA Tournament survival, continuing to split the First Four games between at-large and auto-bids is something that will need to continue. This serves three purposes.

First, it ensures the low and mid majors will be included, though the opportunity for deep advancement will be limited because by splitting the 32 teams playing at the First Four sites, 16 will be the lowest automatic bids and that means eight instead of two will be eliminated before the Round of 64. The same will be true for at-large teams, so while there will be twelve at-large teams added to compete with the current four at-large teams in the First Four, only eight of those will advance to the main bracket.

Second, because eight automatic bids will advance from the First Four, that means eight leagues earning two or more NCAA credits that otherwise would typically earn one (barring a double-digit seed upset). Financially, this is a win for the smaller leagues, even if it limits the number that can advance further.

Stories like FDU beating Purdue are only possible by maintaining the automatic bids
Photo by Michael Conroy | AP Photo

Third, it gives that additional opportunity to coaches, student athletes, and fans to enjoy earning a win in the NCAA Tournament. None of the teams that won games in Dayton ever looked sad at the end of the experience. And while thus far only Fairleigh Dickinson has gone from an automatic bid to Dayton and won a game in the Round of 64, that is the opportunity all of these teams will be playing for, and half of them will get that win. The NCAA Tournament isn't just to determine who the National Champion is, it's an experience that is shared by everyone who loves college basketball, and expanding the personal nature of that experience to more coaches, players, and fans to enjoy it when their team accomplishes something does not diminish the tournament itself.

Implementing an 80-team field

Ultimately, one of the biggest questions will always be "what will this look like?" To start simply, here is the 68-team NCAA Tournament field from 2024. Bear in mind Colorado State is out of order because they were moved to make the play-in games work.

In terms of seeding, a Field of 80 wouldn't change much. However, it would make some of the seeding guidelines more rigid. Ultimately, the bids will be based on 32 conferences as the Pac-12 is in process of reforming and will likely be given an automatic bid from its reformation. Here's a rundown:

• Seed Lines 1-10: These would be the top forty teams in the field. All of them would receive a bye to the round of 64. Eight of these would have to be automatic bids.
• Seed Lines 11-12: These would be the last sixteen at-large teams. These teams will always seed into the 11-12 lines and the winners will play the top eight non-protected seeds in the Round of 64.
• Seed Lines 13-14: These are the automatic bids who rate as 9-16 among auto bids. They receive a bye to the round of 64.
• Seed Lines 15-16: These are the last sixteen automatic bids. Winners will advance to play teams on the top two seed lines.

Here is what the 2024 NCAA Tournament would have looked like using the existing 68-team field, the NCAA's official First Four Out, and the top two seed lines of the NIT. St. John's (turned down NIT) and Providence (top NIT 3-seed) were also given bids.

The First Four games will be played at the same sites as the Rounds of 64 and 32. Dayton will no longer host all First Four games. So instead of one random site hosting First Four games with the teams then flying to various sites after their game, each site will be active for three dates of games. Sites will either be Tuesday/Thursday/Saturday or Wednesday/Friday/Sunday. This will ensure that teams winning late games on Tuesday/Wednesday will not need to travel for their Round of 64 game. It's worth noting that the only 16-seed ever to win a Round of 64, Fairleigh Dickinson, only had to travel 72 miles from Dayton, Ohio to Columbus, Ohio when they beat Purdue. Here's how a bracket with a Field of 80 would work, showing how there is one play-in added in each pod:

This scheduling will also work because each site is guaranteed two play-in games. Sites with a 1-seed will have a 16-seed play-in game. Sites with a 2-seed will have a 15-seed play-in game. Sites with a 3-seed will have an 11-seed play-in game. Sites with a 4-seed will have a 12-seed play-in game. This ensures that both at-larges and automatic bids will continue to participate in play-in games, the best non-high major automatic bids continue to qualify automatically for the Round of 64, and the entire NCAA Tournament fits within the current calendar.

The Indiana St./Seton Hall NIT Final deserved NCAA level attention
 Photo by Michael Conroy | AP Photo

This would also most likely allow the NIT to continue. While it would be diminished in quality, the NIT hasn't been a viable competitor to the NCAA Tournament for well over 40 years. The NIT is a fan service to the next level of teams and additional content for diehard fans who are hungry for college basketball on non-NCAA days. In this scenario, only nine of teams in the Field of 80 were 2024 NIT teams. There were twelve high-major teams not invited and the CBI Tournament had seven 20+ win teams that did not earn NIT invites. There are enough teams out there to fill that field even with a Field of 80.

Rebutting the Counter-Points

There will always be pushback, so here are some of the counter-arguments we expect:

I'm only in favor of expansion if there are auto-bids for regular season champions

This is a non-starter. That means you are guaranteeing as many as 54 spots in the tournament to non-HM teams. Currently, we have at most 40 bids available to the P4 schools (if they get their automatic qualifiers and all 36-at-large teams). Even if the field expanded to 96, the P4 are not going to be on board with expanding a field by 28 bids when they could receive as few as 2 of them. Maybe if the field expands to 128 or more, but that makes calendar issues more likely. Each league is guaranteed one bid and each league decides how they award that single bid. It's not feasible to consider otherwise.

I already don't watch the First Four, I'm not interested in two more days of games

Then don't watch it. No one is forcing anyone to watch any games. However this would give 12 more fanbases reasons to tune in, and I'm guessing no matter how much you dislike expansion, if your team is playing on Tuesday or Wednesday you will be watching. It would also make Tuesday and Wednesday night content quantity on par with a Thursday/Friday window. The First Four wouldn't feel like extra games tacked on to the front for money, it would feel like the tournament proper where you are flipping between channels or running the YouTube quad box.

No one is turning down two more days of the Quad Box
 Photo by @Matt_Snyder | Twitter.com

I'm fine with expansion, but make all the play-in games at-large teams and guarantee automatic qualifiers a spot in the Round of 64

This seems reasonable until you do the math. 16 teams need to be eliminated to get from 80 to 64. That means the 16 auto-bids need to be replaced with 16 at-large teams. Look at the Field of 80, start with 37-Nevada, and count up to 22-Clemson. That's how far you have to go to get 16 more at-large teams. When you shift the automatic bids up it also makes lines 11-16 all automatic bids. By doing that, the at-large play-in bids would fall on lines 7-10. This would be a logistical nightmare for cities that can host 8 fanbases but might struggle with 12. In addition, the best chance many of these lower leagues have of earning additional NCAA credits is by winning a First Four game. This would increase their odds to do so while trimming the overall number of one-bid league teams on Thursday/Friday to improve the odds the P4 can maximize credits. Money matters, and you need the P4, so this is just a casualty of that reality.

Most of the bids in the Field of 80 are going to high-majors, there should be limits on how many they can get

The whole reason for this model is to make sure the high-majors continue to participate in this tournament. That means fewer automatic bids advancing to the Round of 64, but at least they are still included. That means more high-majors earning bids and advancing, but that's the cost of keeping them in the field. We've already seen the college football postseason radically altered by money and power conferences trying to consolidate the spoils. They have the numbers to create their own tournament entirely or run their own tournament while only inviting a handful of non-P4 schools. Right now, we're trying to figure out a model that will make them happy while preserving what we love about the current tournament field. If everyone agreed on a limit to the number of teams from a single league in play-in games, I could see that, but the floor would probably be set at four (this Field of 80 has four Big East and Big 12 teams) and that doesn't seem like much of a limit.

Adding teams will dilute the field quality

If we use this model, this is mathematically untrue. By any metric, when we get to 64, the six advancing teams added from the at-large play-in games will be better than the six eliminated from the automatic bid play-in games. Further, the teams on the 16 line will be 15/16 seed quality, the teams on the 15 line will be 13/14 seed quality, and that will push better teams down the field to give better chances at more competitive first round games. From 1985 through 2010, 15 and 16-seeds were 4-204 (1.96% chance of victory) in the NCAA Tournament's first round with zero making the Sweet 16. Since the 2010 expansion, 15 and 16-seeds are 9-103 (8.04% chance of victory) with four making the Sweet 16. Expansion has already exponentially improved the quality of play at the bottom of the bracket, and further expansion would only escalate that faster. The field quality would improve and while there would be fewer automatic bids in the Round of 64, the ones that make it there will be better teams.

15-seeds Lehigh & Norfolk State winning the same day was brought to you by expansion
 Photos by Chuck Burton | Lehigh Valley Live and Doug Pensinger | Getty Images

The Tournament is perfect at 68, don't change it

Anyone who's been watching the tournament since before 2001 knows this isn't true. You can argue it was perfect at 64, but the only way the field goes back to 64 is if the P4 breaks away and kills the single-bid leagues in the process. Further, the First Four have never fully felt like the Tournament. That's why NCAA pools don't count those games in your scoring and why ratings spike by more than 50% when we get to day games on Thursday and Friday. The First Four has always been an add-on, but going to a full two-night slate with games in rotation, just like we have once the Round of 64 kicks off, will make those nights feel a lot more like the experience of the NCAA Tournament. 68 was never as good as 64, and going to 80 will feel a lot closer to the pre-2001 perfection than anything since ever has.

Ultimately, the reality is that without the P4, the NCAA Tournament cannot survive. Realignment has also put schools in a position where the P4 could viably break off using either only their own members or with minimal bids given to the Big East and other non-P4 football programs. If the NCAA Tournament and the emotions that come with it are to be saved, expansion has to happen and the changes made need to primarily benefit the programs that drive ratings. If they break off, whether grudgingly or willingly, fans will follow to a "perfect" 64-team P4 field because when you get to the second and third weekends, ratings are driven by the presence of the powerhouse programs. This model and plan is not an attack on what we currently have, it's an attempt to save some semblance of the Tournament we have all come to love over our lifetimes..

Well that was a bummer

We're back and unfortunately it's after an #mubb loss on the road. We, of course, have to talk about the loss to Dayton, especially after a bit of a collapse from the team. We try to project whether the team is figured out or if it was a fluke. We then sum up the non-conference season before looking at the conference as a whole. Then we close the podcast with a Butler/Xavier breakdown. Enjoy! 

 

Link to Podcast

 

 

We've Got a Basketball Jones

Kam Jones tied a career high with 32 points against Wisconsin

Photo by Stacy Revere | Getty Images

When Marquette had their first open practice of the Shaka Smart era on October 14, 2021, it stood out to me when Coach Smart introduced Kam Jones and said that he would leave as Marquette's all-time leading scorer. A year after Markus Howard had left, I knew the improbability of his reaching that scoring level, but wondered at the time if the skinny freshman guard would truly be able to carve his name as one of Marquette's all-time scorers. With names like McNeal, Hayward, Thompson, James, Lee, and Diener as the five that came after Howard, what were the odds this kid could match them? I'll admit, in that practice Jones, along with Olivier-Maxence Prosper, were the most impressive newcomers that weren't established college players. Most of the night, Jones was matched up with grad transfer Darryl Morsell, who dogged Jones on defense, fighting over screens and challenging Jones to do the same when engaging him in both offensive and defensive exercises.

My favorite interaction of the night came after Jones was a bit lazy trying to get to an inbound with Morsell hounding him.

Shaka: "Do that inbound again. You want the ball you gotta do a better job of getting open than that. Now get open."

Also Shaka: "Darryl, don't let him get open."#mubb

— Alan Bykowski (@brewcity1977) October 15, 2021

Two moments in that practice still stand out in my mind for Kam. The first was on a perimeter drill where the defender would have to go through screen after screen to stay with the man. Morsell's strength and slippery ability to go over screens allowed him to hound Jones relentlessly while the then-freshman was clearly gassed trying to keep up. The second was a one-on-one gauntlet drill against that pitted Jones against fellow freshman Emarion Ellis. At the time, Ellis had more recently committed and with a football background, felt like the one who would come out on top, but Jones bested him. Those plays and those interactions set the tone for the level of work Kam Jones would have to put in to become an elite college player. If Darryl Morsell wasn't going to make it easy on him in practice, there is no doubt that opposing guards wouldn't make it easy on him in games. 

Freshman Kam displayed a knack for scoring at the rim

Photo from jsonline.com

Jones' development has been impressive, as any Marquette fan can attest. He went from a Big East all-Freshman team to leading Marquette in scoring (15.1 ppg) as a sophomore on a team that won both the big East regular season and tournament championships, setting a program record for wins in a season, and earning the best NCAA Tournament seed in program history.

Jones quickly developed a truly elite ability to score at the rim. His sophomore year reminded me in ways of Markus Howard, when Kam's conversion rate at the rim improved vastly. They did it differently, but both achieved more at the rim success after proving themselves as long-range shooters. As a freshman, Howard made 45.4% of his shots inside the arc, but 52.5% at the rim. Because of his prodigious shooting ability, teams really tried to chase him off the line as a sophomore. While Howard's efficiency there didn't change (still shot 52.5% ATR) his frequency did. Howard took 17% of his shots at the rim as a freshman compared to 32% as a sophomore. This brought his overall 2PFG% to 53.3%, making him an interior threat as well. For Howard, this was a high-water mark. He would never again reach this level of ATR usage nor efficiency. Jones' trajectory was a bit different.

Kam Jones ATR Usage and Efficiency Progression

As a freshman, Jones had similar efficiency to Howard, but didn't go to the rim as often. While Howard nearly doubled his sophomore year rim usage, Jones nearly tripled his. But for Jones, that was just the beginning. I remember discussing with a Marquette fan how Jones would almost certainly not be as efficient inside the arc as a junior after his prolific sophomore season. Instead, he nearly maintained that efficiency while increasing his ATR usage. As a senior he has further increased both efficiency and usage to career highs. Consider that Jones is also doing this as a 6'5" point guard. Here's where he rates nationally according to Synergy:

The most efficient ATR scorers in the country, per Synergy Sports

Jones is the only back court player on this list and the shortest at 6'5". His at the rim efficiency is comparable to 6'10" and taller lottery picks like Queen and Newell, both of whom Jones and Marquette beat this year. Because of Jones' style, he will never be prolific getting to the free throw line. The way he contorts his body, maintaining control while avoiding contact to make finishes with the English of a billiards master, simply doesn't lean toward a high free throw rate. That said, his 19.9% free throw rate would be a career high and he's on pace for a personal single-season high-water mark in trips to the free throw line. He even drew a foul on a three Saturday, fading away to avoid contact but drawing it nonetheless as he completed a four-point play:

KAM JONES!!!!!!! 🤯
pic.twitter.com/WvneoMHg60

— ESPN Milwaukee (@ESPNMilwaukee) December 7, 2024

Not only that, but Jones is doing this while making 41.3% of his shots from deep as well. Jones is seeking to become the first Marquette player in the T-Rank database to make 60% of his shots inside the arc and 40% of his shots beyond the arc. He truly embodies the Marquette offensive philosophy of scoring at the rim and beyond the arc. To emphasize how good Jones is from deep, look at his Synergy ratings on the various three-point attempt types:

Note to defenders: do NOT let Kam Jones catch and shoot at the arc

Jones rates as excellent overall and in every aspect of catch and shoot jumpers. If he gets the ball on the catch, he is among the most deadly shooters in the country whether you guard him or not. Off the dribble he is merely good, but still above average as a shooter. The threat he poses from three means teams cannot leave him alone at the arc (1.75 ppp unguarded speaks for itself) which opens up the driving lanes that let him get to the rim and finish with the prowess he does.

Jones' passing vision rivals that of Tyler Kolek

Video from Wisconsin at Marquette | Fox Sports

What started the thought process for this article, however, was Jones' incredible Assist/Turnover rates. I was stunned to see after the Wisconsin win that Jones' 42.6% assist rate according to kenpom, currently 5th in the nation, was better than any individual season posted by Tyler Kolek. Not only that, but Jones is doing that with a turnover rate (9.3%) that is less than HALF of what Kolek's was (18.9%) as an All-American last year and accomplishing all that at a higher usage rate. According to T-Rank, here is the list of every player in the database to ever have a 40+% assist rate and below 10% turnover rate:

Hold on...the list of 40+% Assist Rate/sub-10% Turnover Rate is longer than this, right?

Wait, that can't be right. Kam Jones can't be the only player to ever have an assist rate that high coupled with a turnover rate that low. Let's check the filters and expand the range a bit. How about a 15% turnover rate?

What really stands out is Jones' other stats on this line compared to his closest "peers"

Huh...I guess it was right. Not only is Jones the only player with a 40+% assist rate and sub-10% turnover rate, but the closest player to matching him has a turnover rate that is more than 140% Jones' rate (Sidney Sanders). So not only is Jones the most efficient interior scorer at his size and a lethal three point shooter, he's creating for others without turning the ball over at a rate no one in the last 15 years has matched. In 2020, we wrote about PORPAGATU!, a metric from T-Rank that tallies overall player value. Filtered for 10 games played (to allow Jones to be compared to recent historic players) his current PORPAGATU! is third highest in the T-Rank database. Here are all of the players with season-long rankings of 7.0 or better. Those that are highlighted were Wooden Award winners at the end of the season. In the seventeen-year history of the metric going back to 2008, the #1 player in PORPAGATU! has won the Wooden Award eight times, the winner has been in the top-5 fifteen times, and only once been outside the top-7 (Obi Toppin in 2020). Here's how Jones stacks up:

T-Rank isn't the only system that loves Jones. The website evanmiya.com evaluates all players based on both offensive and defensive acumen, using the Bayesian Performance Rating, which quantifies overall player effect on the team using various box score metrics, play-by-play data, and historical information. Jones has the top Offensive BPR in the country at 6.07, and his overall BPR ranks third behind Johni Broome of Auburn and Zakai Zeigler of Tennessee. Miya's website also rates Jones as the #1 most indispensable player in the country and #1 in his MVP rankings.

Jones' defense has also been notable. His four steals against Wisconsin tied a career high and his 3.2% steal rate is the best mark of his career. Defensive acumen is notoriously difficult to assess even through advanced metrics, but Synergy likes what it's seen from Jones so far.

Jones rates well in the defensive actions he is most frequently called on to guard. Further, if you compare the number of possessions as the primary defender to the number of shots allowed, Kam allowed a shot on 48 of 69 possessions so far, just 69.6% of possessions. That's the lowest rate of any of Marquette's five starters, meaning Kam is either forcing the ball out of the offensive players' hands or forcing them into turnovers. This part of the defense is often a team effort, but it's another indicator Jones is doing his part on both ends.

Kam Jones is locked in on both ends of the floor

Photo by Foster Goodrich | Marquette Wire

 

Look back up at the BPR chart above. Jones' Defensive BPR of 2.14 might seem fairly average among the players there, but it ranks #143 in the country out of 3,291 players, putting him in the 95th percentile of defenders. Of course, it's tough to stand out as a defender when the other two back court starters (Mitchell and Ross) are in the 97th percentile. I would stress that defense is difficult to quantify, because good defensive teams will have low points allowed per possession, which will make everyone look good, but Jones has clearly developed into an above average defender.

Whether Jones can keep up his historic play is yet to be seen, and ultimately Marquette fans will likely judge his legacy with a heavy weight towards the performances in March (and April) than anything that happens before the New Year. But with 1,594 career points after the Wisconsin game, Jones is now alone in 15th place on the all-time Marquette scoring list. With 100 more points (5 more games at his current pace) he would pass Dean Meminger, Damon Key, Darius Johnson-Odom, Bo Ellis, Wesley Matthews, Tony Smith, Brian Wardle, and Travis Diener all the way to 7th place. By the end of the year, he is on track to become Marquette's second ever 2,000-point scorer, making Coach Smart's prediction look pretty good. And he's doing that while playing at a historically efficient rate in terms of passing, turnovers, and overall production. Further, Jones isn't just a positive defender, he's metrically one of the better perimeter defenders in the country. Just like Darryl Morsell, who put him through the paces in that first public practice more than three years ago..

Up and down week, but mostly Up

 Well #mubb fans the week could have gone better but it also could have gone way, way worse. Off the jump, pun intended, we talk about the emphatic win over Wisconsin this past Saturday. We also talk about the Iowa State game, Chase injury, etc. We then talk about the upcoming Dayton game (between Phil's rants) as a close out to the non-conference season. Enjoy! 

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Big challenges lay ahead, including #BadgerHateWeek

 Thanksgiving week went about as expected for #mubb, unlike the rest of the Big East. We talk briefly about the two buy games completed by the team mostly so we can talk about a good thing (Damarius Owens) and a bad thing(Zaide injury). We then chat about the rest of the Big East which is super bad right now. While it's fun to cheer against our conference mates, they are performing so badly it might end up hurting Marquette a touch. We then turn to the week ahead, which is a doozy. First we talk about the road class against a top 5 opponent in Iowa State. This will absolutely be the toughest test for Marquette to date. Then, of course, is #BadgerHateWeek and we discuss bizzaro Wisconsin who is great offensively but so so defensively. Will this be the year that Shaka breaks through against Greg Gard? We certainly hope so but time will tell. Enjoy!

 

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As Good a Court Performance as You Could Ask For

Welcome to Thanksgiving and another week of victories for #mubb. Also welcome to our new sponsor, mubbtees.com! We start the pod off talking about the outstanding performance against Purdue and that potentially catapulting MU into a top 10 ranking. We then spend a little time ranting about the TV situation for the Georgia game and some of you may not have seen the game so we walk through it. We then close out by talking about getting a couple of wins and some run time for the youngin's going into Thanksgiving. Enjoy! 

www.mubbtees.com using the promo code "Eggs" for 15% off 

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Marquette beats Georgia in Atlantis

David Joplin had a great morning in The Bahamas
 Photo from @MarquetteMBB

If you're a normal Marquette fan, you probably didn't watch Marquette take on Georgia in their neutral site game in The Bahamas today. That's because it was only available on Flo Sports, which either meant you needed to fly to The Bahamas, subscribe to Flo for the hefty tag of $20 for the one game you're interested in, go to a watch party, or find an illegal stream. Personally, I bit the bullet and subscribed for a day, but I'm sure fans used all of those methods and possibly others as well.

For those that want to watch a replay, the game in full has been edited and posted to YouTube. You can find that at this link: https://youtu.be/c2c9ARsvU1s?si=ZiLSUWeXgBH5pkPP

As mentioned on the Scrambled Eggs podcast, this is a stretch where Marquette played Georgia on Flo Sports, Stonehill and Western Carolina on FS2, and Iowa State on ESPN+. That means there is a decent number of fans that will probably go from watching Marquette overwhelm #6 Purdue on November 18th, then not get to watch their team again until they take on Wisconsin on December 7th. While it might not be the game itself, we here at Cracked Sidewalks want to give you something to take away, so here's a breakdown of the Georgia game.

The game started sloppy, with Marquette turning it over on their first two possessions, but in the process they got out of the gates with a Kill (three straight stops) before Kam Jones found David Joplin at the arc to open the scoring. The good news is that David Joplin made threes would become a theme of the game, the bad news is that sloppy play was another hallmark of this outing.

📞📞📞 pic.twitter.com/Rq6SSj2YkD

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

Early on it was a game of runs. Marquette got out to a 6-0 start (Ben Gold making the other three, another game theme), Georgia answered with a 12-4 run to take the lead. Marquette came back with a 10-0 stretch, Georgia hit back with a 7-3 run. Every time Marquette opened up a little separation, Georgia was right there to reel them back in. They did it largely by hitting the offensive glass hard and getting to the line, two things that were expected going into this one as the Bulldogs ranked #4 and #6 nationally in those two of the four factors.

Defense ➡️ Instant Offense #MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/F0TigsyCBO

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

One of the biggest problems of the first half was foul trouble for Marquette's back court, which led to those aforementioned free throws. Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell, and Chase Ross all picked up two fouls in the opening half. Kam also had a play where Tyrin Lawrence stepped on his foot and Marquette fans quieted as he left the court. Kam went off under his own power and went to the locker room. It was painfully evident that the offense just didn't flow as well with them on the floor, especially when Kam came off. Thankfully, Kam was able to return shortly thereafter and was able to play most of the rest of the game. The positive for Marquette was shooting from the front court. Coming into the game, Ben Gold and David Joplin had combined to go just 16/69 (23.2%) from beyond the arc. For two guys who take more than twice as many shots from deep as they do on the interior, that's a problem. But they were scorching nets in the first half, combining to go 5/11 in the half.

📞📞📞 pic.twitter.com/FantkUCUse

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

BG with his second 3⃣ of the game! #MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/5mxIvcaAjv

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

Despite the hot shooting, it was Georgia who had the last big run of the half. After Marquette took a 31-23 lead, the largest of the game, the Bulldogs answered with a 14-2 run to reclaim the lead as the game drew close to halftime. On the final possession, Chase Ross found a trailing Joplin who pulled up from the logo and buried another three to give Marquette the 36-35 halftime advantage.

Jop beats the buzzer!!! #MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/UfZ2q0uHy5

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

Fans who cut their Marquette teeth in the Wojo era might be forgiven for getting nervous any time a game is close at the half. As we acclimate to Shaka, it's time to recognize just how good this staff is at halftime adjustments. Marquette trailed George Mason at halftime, then outscored the Patriots by 20 in the second half. Marquette trailed Maryland at halftime, then outscored the Terrapins by 8 in the second half. Marquette led Purdue at halftime, but outscored the Boilermakers by 11 in the second frame to put it away. This staff does very well adjusting to the opponent and coming back out in the second half better than they went in. To start the second, Marquette made some clear adjustments. The first was to attack inside. Marquette went more aggressively into the paint, which not only resulted in scoring plays but also opened up looks at the perimeter.

Multiple Efforts 😤 pic.twitter.com/uz3X2I8Mrv

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

Marquette also started to use more zone. This took Georgia out of their offense and helped key a 19-5 run that looked like it would put the Bulldogs away as Marquette stretched the lead from just one at halftime to a commanding 55-40 less than 8 minutes into the second half. In that stretch, Georgia went 2/8 from the field while turning the ball over 6 times. It looked like the dominant Marquette defense we are getting used to combined with an offense that thrives in transition.

I want to take a moment to single out Ben Gold for his performance in this game. A cursory look at the box score will tell you he had a good game. 14 points fueled by 4/9 shooting from deep with 6 rebounds to go along with it is certainly a fine outing, but it doesn't put into perspective just how good Gold was on the defensive end. He held Asa Newell, who looks like a future NBA first round pick (ESPN, Sam Vecenie, and NBA Draft Room all have him in the top-20), to just 3/9 from the floor and 9 points. Newell, Somto Cyril, and R.J. Godfrey have feasted on the offensive boards, averaging 8.2 offensive rebounds per game coming in, but combined for just 1 against Marquette. Gold's sharp elbows and ability to secure and clear defensive boards certainly helped. Gold has developed excellent positioning, is much better at staying vertical, has far better recovery speed when he's beaten off the dribble, and all in all has become a positive factor on defense. One of my biggest worries coming into this season was interior defense, and Gold has done a great job answering that problem.

Back to the game...remember what I said about Georgia always being able to reel Marquette back in? The second half was no exception. In this case, it was largely Marquette staying in zone a little too long. Georgia finally figured out they could get open threes and as long as they got them to the right shooters, could make them. That led to a 17-5 Georgia run in which Blue Cain and Dakota Leffew combined to go 4/5 from three to cut the lead down to 60-57. Kam answered with a basket of his own, then Marquette's defense turned the Bulldogs over again and Stevie found Chase for the hammer dunk in transition. It was one of 13 second half turnovers for Georgia, an incredible 36% turnover rate for the half.

Rims hate to see Chase Ross coming 😡#MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/NZRD5PB2CJ

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

The teams exchanged baskets for a few possessions, with another Blue Cain three cutting the lead to 69-66 with just under 5 minutes to play. At that point, Marquette finally closed the door. Joplin stretched the lead, then a combination of Marquette's defense and poor free throw shooting turned the water off. Stevie had a steal that led to a Tre Norman layup. Marquette got another defensive stop, then Chase Ross hit a top-of-the-key three to push the lead to 10. After another empty Georgia possession, Chase whipped a pass in to Stevie for another score.

Chase with the find to Stevie! #MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/6vxSAlRTEf

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

After the Blue Cain three cut the lead to 3, here were the offensive possessions for Georgia:

• 4:58 - Cain made three
  
• 4:23 - Turnover
• 3:42 - Missed front end of one-and-one
• 3:00 - Missed layup
• 2:18 - Turnover
• 1:51 - Missed front end of one-and-one
• 1:25 - Turnover
• 1:04 - Missed three
• 0:49 - Lawrence made layup
  

Marquette's 9-0 run pushed the lead to 78-66 and killed any chances of a late Georgia comeback. The icing on the cake was a foul that sent David Joplin to the line where he sank two free throws to push his total to a game and career high 29 points for the game. Marquette came away with the 80-69 victory and moved to 6-0, their best start since the 2011-12 season powered by Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom as Marquette went to the Sweet 16. We'll wrap up with the Marquette highlight package and the kenpom box score for the game. If you weren't able to watch, we hope this helped a little bit.

The @WBsilverlining highlights from today’s win over Georgia in the Bahamas.#MUBB | #WeAreMarquette pic.twitter.com/Vn9Q52NRvk

— Marquette Basketball (@MarquetteMBB) November 23, 2024

Strong win, tough week ahead

Much like Slim Shady we are, in fact, back again (and you should definitely tell a friend). We have to catch up on the results of #mubb vs Maryland and Kam Jones going full Kam Jones as well as Stevie Mitchell stepping up to 2nd scorer and clutch player. We also talk about the development of some folks like Royce Parham. We close out the pod talking about the two games this week (Purdue, Georgia), what we think will happen in those games as well as the inexplicable TV schedule for the next two weeks. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/tk8izceufb5v4py5/Eggs_2024_Nov_149j6lt.mp3

And we're off #mubb!

The season is underway and it wouldn't be an #mubb season if we didn't have a mix of enthusiasm and trepidation. We have 3 games to review so we start the pod with a "Family Guy Compliment Sandwich". The bread is the guards and Royce Parnham and the inside is anyone taller than 6'6" who is currently shooting and not getting to the rim. We ramble around a bit, then we get to the Maryland preview. We then ramble around a bit more and close out the show. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/m9dbxep64xz775dr/Eggs_2024_Nov_147o7d4.mp3

Welcome wine hosts and #mubb fans to a new season!

Lots of nonsense abounds in this welcome to the season podcast from Scrambled Eggs. We have some time to do a quick welcome to new fans and set the stage for the season. We channel gen Z and talk about program vibes to start the program discussion. We then talk individual player predictions before we get into overall team projection. We close out the pod with a crowd favorite, game by game predictions. Welcome to the season and enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/ra5ncv32snr63tmu/Eggs_2024_Nov_16ine4.mp3

Connecticut Preview, 2024-25

Connecticut Huskies

February 1st, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / March 4th, 2024 at Gampel Pavilion

Head Coach: Dan Hurley (292-163 overall, 141-58 at UConn)

Three-Year NET Average: 9.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 12

Alex Karaban and UConn defeated Marquette three times in 2024
Photo by Mary Althaffer | AP Photo

State of the Program

In the past two seasons, UConn is 68-11, are the defending Big East Regular Season and Tournament Champions, and...oh yeah, the two-time defending National Champions, winning twelve consecutive NCAA games by double-digits. They've done that while retaining the same coaching staff, including Hurley who turned down the Los Angeles Lakers to pursue a third straight title. The Huskies are led by likely preseason All-American Alex Karaban, though they also bring back three additional rotation players that started at least one game last year: Solo Ball, Samson Johnson, and Hassan Diarra. The staff also added a pair of proven transfers in Aidan Mahaney from St. Mary's and Tarris Reed from Michigan, along with Liam McNeeley, a top-10 recruit expected to make an impact from day one. Suffice to say, the state of the program could not be stronger, even after seeing four players picked in the NBA Draft.

Rotation

Hassan Diarra is expected to get the first crack at running the offense, but replacing First Team All-American Tristen Newton is a big pair of shoes to fill. Diarra likely won't match Newton's raw production, but he is a capable shooter both from three and at the rim, can create shots for others, and is a solid defender. St. Mary's transfer Aidan Mahaney will likely be expected to help carry the scoring load. He's been at his best when spotting up from three but is poor at driving and finishing at the rim. That said, he's likely expected to replace Cam Spencer, who was similarly a spot-up shooter on offense at Rutgers and worse at the rim than Mahaney, but managed to transform his game under UConn's staff while channeling Dan Hurley's brash attitude on the court. Don't be surprised if Mahaney is the next UConn player opposing fanbases hate. Liam McNeeley is an exceptional shooter, but he's a projected first round NBA Draft pick because of his ability to attack off screens, his downhill drives, his passing, and the way he uses his basketball IQ to always make the right play. Karaban is the returning star and the epitome of the elite college wing. He takes over 90% of his shots from three (37.9 3PFG%) or at the rim (70.6 ATR%). The question is if he can maintain anything close to his sensational efficiency at what will almost certainly be a much higher usage rate. Samson Johnson was excellent in 2023-24, transitioning from barely used bench piece to rotation big and spot starter. He's an elite lob threat and rim protector, but was a pale comparison to lottery pick Donovan Clingan. UConn's bench has a pair of highly regarded sophomores with experience in Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart, either of whom could challenge for Mahaney's projected starting spot, as well as Reed, who will likely platoon with Johnson. He's is an accomplished rebounder and provides similar rim protection. Keep a particular eye on Ball, he started in UConn's exhibition game and looks like a vastly improved player that could be more than just a bench piece. If additional depth is needed, freshmen Ahmad Nowell and Isaiah Abraham are top-100 prospects that could be immediate contributors.

Style of Play

 

UConn runs a deep and complex offensive playbook with more than 150 plays that focuses on a ton of complex off-the-ball movement. They get the bulk of their looks from three (40.2% of shots) or at the rim (43.6%) but don't get a high percentage of baskets directly off the drive (4th percentile in frequency of rim attacks). Instead, their drives are designed to set up their other actions. More often than not, they will kick out for a three, find a perimeter player cutting to the run, or a big in a pick and roll. They also love to get out in transition, attacking off the rebound or made basket, which is somewhat surprising given their sub-300 average offensive possession length. UConn's players are exceptionally well drilled and while they usually have a primary ball handler (Newton the past two years) they will typically have 2-3 players on the floor that can create for themselves and others. UConn is also a good offensive rebounding team, so even if you stop the first action they are good at resetting and attacking again.

 

The Huskies get to their spots and convert mercilessly

 Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

 

On defense, UConn is aggressive at chasing teams off the arc and forcing them to go inside. If you get to the rim, Hurley's teams have been top-25 in block rate each of the past 5 years, and that shouldn't change with Johnson and Reed patrolling the middle. They challenge every shot inside and out, leading to a top-5 defensive eFG% each of the past two years. Beyond the bigs, Karaban and Diarra are both excellent defenders that will anchor the system. While the defense doesn't get the attention the offense does, the Huskies are more than capable on that end as well.

2024-25 Outlook

 

On paper, it seems inevitable that UConn will take a step back. After all, they lost four players to the NBA, and how can anyone keep up the relentless onslaught they have through the past two NCAA Tournaments? The last team to go to three straight Final Fours was UCLA from 2006-08, and the last team to win three straight titles was also UCLA from 1971-73 (actually 1967-73). Aidan Mahaney looks like a poor man's Cam Spencer, Liam McNeeley doesn't look like a Stephon Castle top-5 pick, and no one on this roster seems capable of replicating Tristen Newton or Donovan Clingan's contributions.

 

 

And yet, this is what we wrote last year: "Good team, yes, tourney team, most likely, but top-10 Big East title contender? Not so much." Not sure we could've been much more wrong with that take. What makes UConn's accomplishments more impressive is comparing them to the last back-to-back champions, 2006 & 2007 Florida. Billy Donovan's teams had the same starting five both years, and even their first two off the bench were the same. Hurley's 2023 team lost three starters and their top two bench options, yet managed to be unquestionably better in 2024. Until they are dethroned, UConn has to be the pick at the top of the Big East because they've earned that position.

 

One Man's Opinion

 

At this point, how can you not put UConn #1 in the Big East? Not only did they win consecutive National Titles, but they won the league by four games and took home the Big East Tournament title. They did all that despite losing three starters to the NBA. On paper, this team looks to be taking a step back from a year ago, but that was the case a year ago. Hurley and his staff have hit home runs in the portal, from the high school ranks, and through their own development the past two years. The staff is operating at an incredibly high level. It's hard to imagine them not falling back a little bit from their insanely dominant past two NCAA runs, but at this point they are the champions of every competition they've participated in since losing to Marquette at MSG on March 10, 2023. If someone wants to claim that title, go for it, but until they do, UConn has earned this position.

Marquette Preview, 2024-25

Marquette Golden Eagles

April 7th, 2025 at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX

Head Coach: Shaka Smart (346-172 overall, 75-30 at Marquette)

Three-Year NET Average: 25.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 24

Kam Jones passed on the NBA Draft in hopes of leading Marquette to new heights
 Photo from JSOnline.com

State of the Program

In 105 years of Marquette Basketball, the program reached 27 wins in a season just four times before Shaka Smart took the reins. Al McGuire did it twice (1971, 1976), Tom Crean did it in his Final Four year (2003), and Buzz Williams did it as well (2012). In the past two years, Shaka Smart has matched McGuire, setting a program record for wins while having the best two-year win total in program history. This includes a Big East regular season title, tournament title, tournament runner-up, and NCAA Sweet 16 appearance. The downside is that the two players considered most responsible for that success are now in the NBA, but Marquette does return three starters while promoting a pair of juniors to the starting lineup and adding a pair of freshmen expected to contribute. In terms of roster development, Shaka Smart's team makeup harkens back to days of yore (you know, like five years ago before we saw 1,500+ transfers per year) as they focus on internal development. Can he keep it up without Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro? That remains to be seen, but it's been a long time since there's been this much sustained optimism in Milwaukee.

Rotation

Kam Jones: The man at the top of the scouting report will be Kam Jones. At Marquette's first public practice under Shaka Smart in 2021, the coach said Jones could leave Marquette as the all-time leading scorer. While he won't get close to Markus Howard, if he repeats his scoring from last year (620 points) he would become the second Marquette player to 2,000 points. Offensively, Jones is a lethal three point shooter (40.6%) who is one of the best finishers his size at the rim (65.0%). There will be concerns about his ability to handle the point, but in a pick and roll heavy offense, Jones' pick and roll efficiency (1.025 points per possession, 90th percentile) was actually better than All-American Kolek (0.886 ppp, 74th percentile) according to Synergy. Jones' overall statline was impressive, but when Kolek was out for six games in March, Jones averaged 20.8 ppg/4.7 rpg/4.5 apg, increasing all of his primary counting stats while also increasing his usage. If Kam can be the same player for a season he was during those six games, there's a real chance he'll be an All-American and a favorite for Big East Player of the Year.

Stevie Mitchell: Mitchell is the definition of a glue guy. On offense, he does most of his damage driving to the rim where he finished at a higher rate than Jones (71.9%) albeit on lower usage. He was poor on the season from three, but that was largely because he started the season on a 3/23 clip before hitting 40.8% from beyond the arc in Big East play. He's at his best when he's turning defense into offense. Mitchell led the Big East in steal rate and is excellent in transition, averaging 1.328 ppp on transition attempts. Where he has really made his name is on the defensive end. Mitchell is a tenacious defender who will be tasked with defending the opponent's best perimeter player, but what makes him more impressive is his ability to switch onto anyone and seemingly get his hands on any even slightly errant pass. While Mitchell projects to be Marquette's shortest rotation player, he is tremendously strong and can hold his own even in the post. He won't get the press of Marquette's other players but he's integral on both sides of the ball.

 

During our interview last week Tyler Kolek spoke about bringing intensity to practice,

"This year that guy is Stevie Mitchell... he's just a winning guy with all the things that he does"

Late in the game against Butler those winning habits showed up pic.twitter.com/tnubQARkwj

— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) February 4, 2023

Chase Ross: According to Shaka Smart, Ross played the bulk of last season injured and is primed for a breakout. He's an electric athlete and produces highlight reel dunks. Ross got hurt at Seton Hall and saw his 2PFG% dip from 51.2% to 43.9%. He made up for that with a stellar 45.7% three point accuracy after the New Year. Defensively, Ross is an excellent defender who uses his quickness and length to disrupt passing lanes and stick with his man. There is definitely still room for Ross to develop, but he has NBA level athleticism and upside. It's also worth noting that Marquette played better with Ross and Kam Jones than they did with Ross and Tyler Kolek. Credit Phil Bush of Scrambled Eggs for this theory, but the numbers bear it out:

David Joplin: After a Big East Sixth Man of the Year campaign the season before, the Jopwagon became a polarizing figure, largely because he was so hot and cold. He kept Marquette in the game with 19 points against UCLA, then combined for 5 in the next two games against Kansas and Purdue. He seemed barely present at Providence, then exploded for 20/9 against Georgetown. UConn was his Kryptonite as he had a sub-100 offensive rating in all three games (including 1/13 from three), but his steady offense helped pace Marquette against Western Kentucky and Colorado on the way to the Sweet 16. Joplin does most of his offensive damage from deep taking nearly 60% of his shots beyond the arc. He started to show some ability at the rim and finally converted some dunks (after none his first two seasons). Defensively, Joplin improved visibly last season. Early in his career, his hands weren't very active and too often he would let his man get around him. He definitely plays with a higher activity level on that end (5.6% block rate the last six weeks of the season) and has added strength to better hold his position. Joplin will likely never be an elite defender, but he is a passable one.

Ben Gold: It's not often you see a 6'11" player that takes 78.0% of their shots from beyond the arc, but that's Ben Gold. Like Ross and Mitchell, his shooting improved as the season went on. Gold shot 29.6% (including a 5-game 0/12 stretch) in Marquette's first eighteen games, then scorched the nets at a 41.3% clip the rest of the way. He was also excellent at the rim, converting 82.1% of his shots, but that's with the caveat that he rarely took shots at the rim for a player his size (18.7% of his attempts). While Gold will likely do just fine on offense, where he has to answer questions are on defense. Part of that is because he's replacing Oso Ighodaro, who was a true rarity as a center that could switch 1-5 and could pick up a point guard on the perimeter or hold his own banging in the low blocks. Per hoop-explorer, Marquette was 7.5 points/100 possessions worse with Gold on the floor. Some of that is a function of how good Ighodaro was, but Gold has not displayed the lateral quickness, the effective use of length, or the incredible defensive IQ. That development will determine a lot about this team.

The Bench: Anyone close to the program has heard the name Damarius Owens being discussed since the freshmen arrived in June. Owens is a long, athletic wing who is in contention to be the first player off the bench. Reports from Marquette indicate he has starting level talent now, is a solid inside-out scorer, has great defensive length, and at the first scrimmage was even playing at the point for his team at times. It's hard to put much faith in an unknown freshman, but everyone we've talked to who has watched this team in the summer comes away raving about Owens. The known factors are Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery. Both earned spot minutes last year but will likely be needed more this season. The most likely big man off the bench is redshirt freshman Caedin Hamilton. He's definitely thicker than Gold and is expected to play more back-to-the-basket like a traditional post. Hamilton is still a developmental piece but is expected to be part of the rotation. The biggest question mark is Sean Jones. Initial injury reports put his return after the New Year. Older Marquette fans might be reminded of Junior Cadougan's freshman year, when he returned late in the year from injury but only managed to play 47 minutes scattered across 12 games. It was effectively a wasted year on a team that didn't utilize him for depth but prevented him from being able to play on the 2013-14 team that could have used another experienced guard. Quick twitch players like Jones need all of their quickness and lower body strength, so hopefully he isn't rushed back too soon. Al Amadou and Royce Parham round out the scholarship players, but it seems unlikely either play major minutes this year.

Style of Play

As far as Marquette is concerned, the only shots worth taking on offense are from three or at the rim. They rank 344th in mid-range rate by design, because despite ranking 20th in mid-range efficiency (42.2%) that is pedestrian compared to their 74th ranked rim efficiency rate (60.9%). The Golden Eagles play fast, seeking to get a look early in the shot clock before the defense is set, averaging a 9th fastest 15.3 seconds per offensive possession. The offense starts on the defensive end. The top-20 turnover rate keys the transition offense that is in the 87th percentile in efficiency (1.28 ppp). Rick Pitino compared Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro to John Stockton and Karl Malone. Their departure will likely mean a change in the offense. While there are still fine pick and roll options, no one on this team can match the sheer volume that Kolek and Ighodaro operated at. Expect less frequent pick and roll, though relatively speaking. Marquette was in the 97th percentile of PnR usage according to Synergy, so even if there's a decline in usage they'll still be in the 85th-90th percentile range. Because the cutters (1.342 ppp, 94th percentile) and rollers (1.208, 91st percentile) were so effective, this team will have to make up for that somehow. Expect a heavier dosage of three point attempts. To maintain offensive efficiency, Marquette will need to see their shooters play more like they did in the back half of the season; in the first 18 games Marquette was at 31.5% from three, in the next 18 they shot 40.8% from deep.

Marquette has a lot of high efficiency play to replace
 Table from synergysports.com

On defense, Marquette plays aggressive, often starting with a 3/4-court press designed to take 8-10 seconds off the shot clock. That aggression is why Marquette isn't among the top tempo teams in the country as they hold teams to the second slowest defensive possession length at 19.1 seconds on average. The shortened clock is combined with active hands. One of the team goals is to get 32 deflections per game, which can be anything from a blocked shot to a steal to simply tipping a pass out of bounds. The goal is disruption, and players like Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross excel in that regard. More often than not, Marquette will be in a switching man to man. Having strong guards like Mitchell coupled with quick bigs like Oso allowed that switching, but it may be more difficult with Ben Gold in the middle. Marquette may try to protect him more and use him in drop coverage, feinting to the arc before fading back to protect the rim and counter pick and roll actions. While it's primarily a man defense, Smart does like to mix in zone, especially on crucial out-of-bounds or late-game possessions to throw teams off. They typically only run zone 3-4 possessions per game, but are excellent when they do, holding teams to 0.825 ppp, in the 87th percentile per Synergy.

2024-25 Outlook

This year is a huge test for Shaka Smart's roster building model. Since his first year, Smart has primarily built through the high school ranks while everyone else is focusing on the transfer portal and NIL-fused bidding wars. However much of that success came on the backs of Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Tyler Kolek, and Oso Ighodaro, all of whom are in the NBA now. That shows the staff's ability to develop talent as none of the three were on NBA radars in the summer of 2021, but the question is if that was catching lightning in a bottle or building a form of renewable energy that will continue beyond their departures. I caveat this with the admission this is a Marquette blog and those of us involved in creating it definitely have a fan investment, but I think this team can be just as good or even better than the teams of the past two years. Jones is an elite scorer who showed when Kolek was injured that he can successfully play the point. Mitchell and Ross may be role-players, but both are efficient on both ends. This team also has a more proven bench as both Norman and Lowery earned meaningful minutes last year while the team dealt with injuries to Mitchell, Ross, Ighodaro, and Kolek. One of the other constant questions about the ability for teams to become elite is NBA talent, and while two players left for the NBA, Jones looks like he is next while Ross and Owens both seem to have the length and athleticism that will earn them a shot at that level, perhaps not next summer but in the coming years.

Keep Owens' name in mind as a potential significant piece
 Photo from Instagram | @damar1us

I expect the offense to work because as we pointed out in the summer of 2022, it's not volume scoring but whether you have efficient shooters taking the shots that the departed players took. Gold may not take the same shots Oso took, but he is efficient wherever he shoots from. Ross may not match Kolek on his own, but there are plenty of options and the second half shooting indicates his contributions are replaceable. On defense, before arriving at Marquette, Smart had a top-40 defense for 10 straight years and since arriving he has improved Marquette's defense from #83 the year before he arrived to #55, #43, and #17 last year. With 18 years of experience in the starting lineup, it's safe to say these guys know what the staff expects and will be able to execute.

One Man's Opinion

Placing Marquette at #2 in the Big East comes from a combination of factors. First is the belief in Kam Jones and his ability to be the best player in the Big East. Second is faith in the development the coaching staff has displayed in sending three players to the NBA Draft in the past two years. Third is that a roster based on continuity will work in a transfer era. While Marquette may not have the flashy new names of programs like St. John's and Xavier, everyone in the program knows their role and has clear expectations, which will allow them to start the season at a more comfortable level. But it's not just the roster consistency, it's also the quality. Mitchell, Ross, and Joplin have all shown the ability to step up. Gold has been groomed for this role for two years and provides a unique defensive challenge to opponents. And the bench is a mixture of talent and experience with the bulk of them having time in the system. Too often, people focus on what a team lost and the transfers that will replace them, but ss Trilly Donovan likes to say, sometimes the best gets are the ones you already have, and Marquette has that in spades.