Dayton Preview, 2024-25

Dayton Flyers

December 14th, 2024 at UD Arena

Head Coach: Anthony Grant (342-182 overall, 149-72 at Dayton)

Three-Year NET Average: 51.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 52.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 70

Dayton's Enoch Cheeks scrambles for a loose ball
 Photo from daytonflyers.com

State of the Program

You've probably heard it before, but COVID shutting down the 2020 NCAA Tournament had a negative impact on Dayton more than anyone else. They were 29-2 with both losses in overtime to projected single-digit seeds, were a lock for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and one of the favorites to cut nets behind National Player of the Year Obi Toppin. Sure, teams like Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor also lost opportunities that year, but those programs are all perennial Final Four contenders who have been there in the years since. That's not the case for Dayton, who last went to the Final Four in 1967 and only has one second weekend trip in the last 40 years.

While Anthony Grant hasn't brought them back to that level of success, the Flyers have won 20+ games in five of the last six seasons, with the only exception being COVID-shortened 2021. They also finished in the top-3 of the Atlantic 10 in each of those five seasons. Grant has built a program that is perennially at the top of their league and competing for an NCAA bid, even if they've landed in the NIT more often than not. Last year was their best since 2020, led by DaRon Holmes, who was a second team All-American, earning both the A-10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. In addition to Holmes as a dominant two-way force, Dayton had a plethora of shooters that ranked #3 in the nation from beyond the arc. The Flyers notched high-major wins over LSU, St. John's, and Cincinnati, building an at-large resume in the process. They also earned their first NCAA win since 2015 in shocking style, rallying from a 17-point deficit with 7:14 to play to steal a 63-60 result from Nevada. The downside to that success was the departure of Holmes to the NBA while sharpshooters Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea transferred to high-major programs in the offseason.

Rotation

The strength of the Flyers starts in the backcourt. Malachi Smith was injured in the season-opener but they're hoping he's finally healthy. He's a capable scorer but is better as a distributor. Smith is joined by Posh Alexander, who comes over from Butler. Alexander is inconsistent offensively, but is one of the premier ballhawks in the nation. He applies tremendous on-ball defensive pressure and is routinely elite at forcing turnovers. Enoch Cheeks rounds out Dayton's three-man backcourt. He started all 33 games for Dayton last year and does a little bit of everything, but isn't really elite at anything. Nate Santos is the leading returning scorer and also started every game last year. His contributions were a bit of a surprise as he wasn't a leading figure or elite shooter at Pitt, but elevated his game in every way at Dayton. Zed Key will be charged with replacing Holmes. He was a four-year rotation player at Ohio State where he was an effective rebounder and rim protector. They'll need him to move up his contributions to featured player if he's going to adequately replace Holmes. The bench looks solid, starting with Javon Bennett. He started 28 games last year as he shared point guard duties with Kobe Elvis, but it's hard to envision him holding on to a starting spot with Smith back and Alexander joining the fold. Having three players 6-feet and shorter would be a nightmare defensively, even in the A-10. I still expect him to get heavy minutes as they likely cycle through their three point guards. Marvel Allen is a talented redshirt freshman who rescinded his commitment to Georgetown and Patrick Ewing before joining Dayton. Jacob Conner is the most likely big off the bench, but Dayton also boasts Hamid Mousa and Amael L'Etang, a pair of big bodies from overseas with little experience but lots of upside.

Style of Play 

Grant likes to run a continuity ball screen offense. They play deep into the shot clock, with the players and ball constantly moving. They ran heavy drive and kick actions last year and were in the 100th percentile in efficiency on those plays, but losing three of their top four shooters from deep may change the style a bit. What this team has in spades is high-quality passers. Expect a patient offense with lots of movement off the ball to create open looks and defensive confusion. Zed Key and Nate Santos are both excellent finishers at the rim, so when they aren't looking for open threes expect both of them to be fighting to either screen and roll or cut backdoor to get easy opportunities inside. How well they shoot will likely determine how good their offense is. Grant has three top-30 offenses in his coaching career, and all of those were accompanied by top-30 three-point shooting teams.

The Flyer defense excelled at forcing teams into midrange looks

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defensively, Dayton will make you work for every look. They run a man defense that excels at taking away attempts at the rim and forcing teams into midrange and three-point jumpers (see chart above). Dayton is one of the best at defending without fouling, but still attacks closeouts aggressively. While it's true that teams are more efficient in the midrange against Dayton, that's relative to the rest of the country. Dayton forces you to midrange where they allow teams to convert on 38.6% of their shots, which is poor nationally (#257) but far better than allowing attempts inside where teams hit 58.4% against them. The Flyers know which looks are low percentage and let teams take those looks early and often. If they get into foul trouble, which is rare, Grant will break out a zone, but it's a break glass in case of emergency situation.

2024-25 Outlook

Dayton fans have to be salivating at their non-conference schedule opportunities. They open the Maui Invitational, where they were runners-up in 2019, with North Carolina, and follow that with a likely top-10 matchup against Auburn or Iowa State. They have Cincinnati on a neutral court as well. At home, they host Northwestern, UNLV, and their on-paper biggest home non-con game since 2007 (Pittsburgh) in Marquette. Dayton fans have long desired a Big East invitation (except for this guy) and will view a home-and-home opportunity as their chance to audition for that ticket. A packed UD Arena will be one of the most hostile venues Marquette travels to this year, and with Hilton Coliseum and the AMP on the schedule, that's saying something. If Dayton can manage to get 3-4 wins from Maui, Cincy, Northwestern, UNLV, and Marquette, that should be enough to have them in the at-large conversation. They get A-10 round robins with VCU, St. Louis, and Loyola, all of which should be good resume builders. Come March, this will likely be a team on the bubble with their tourney resume hinging on how well they do in non-con play.

This team feels like they have a low floor and very high ceiling based on a series of ifs. If guys like Alexander and Key can come in and be A-10 stars, if Malachi Smith can stay healthy, if Marvel Allen can turn his high-upside talent into on-court production, then this Dayton team can be an A-10 and at-large bid contender. But if Posh tries to take over games, if Key is better suited as a role-player, if Smith gets injured again, and if there aren't answers on the bench to address those questions, things could go very bad for Dayton. This should be a Q1 road opportunity, but without an All-American like Toppin or Holmes, there's the possibility things go very wrong.

Marquette Connection

Shaka Smart began his head coaching career at VCU, where he replaced now-Dayton head coach Anthony Grant. Those two men are responsible for the resurgence of VCU basketball. Grant's 2007 team earned VCU's first tourney win in over 20 years, while Smart's 2011 Final Four team followed by NCAA wins in 2012 and 2013 helped spur the most succesful run in program history, earning 12 NCAA bids in a 17-year span. While they never coached on the same staff, both Grant and Smart were assistants to Billy Donovan at Florida when they took the VCU job. The two also have faced off twice in the past, as Grant's Alabama program agreed to a home-and-home with VCU in 2011 and 2012. The teams split the results, with Grant beating Smart 72-64 in Tuscaloosa in 2011 while Smart got revenge in Richmond the next year with a 73-54 victory.

Wisconsin Preview, 2024-25

Wisconsin Badgers

December 7th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Greg Gard (186-107)

Three-Year NET Average: 41.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 38.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 41

Max Klesmit has mastered the "opponent is close, pretend I was fouled" motion.

Picture by Andy Manis | AP Photo

State of the Program

Wisconsin has long prided itself on stability. They rarely took transfers, their players didn't transfer out (unless they lost their love for the game), and they ran a system that always finished in the top-40 of kenpom (15 straight years from 2003-2017). All of this happened despite opposing fans regularly predicting the new Badger roster wouldn't be good enough. Last year's results mirrored that history, with A.J. Storr stepping up as the go-to scorer, Wisconsin starting the year 16-4, reaching the Big 10 Tournament final, and finishing #17 at kenpom. A late-season slump and upset loss to James Madison in the NCAA Tournament may have soured the season, but consistency and quality looked to be back. In terms of the roster, though, the times they are a-changing. Storr and three-year starting point guard Chucky Hepburn transferred out of the program, along with once heralded Connor Essegian. Gard reacted by bringing in a trio of transfers to bolster the roster. The question is will all the turnover have a negative impact on results.

Rotation

The first of the transfers is Camren Hunter, a prolific scoring guard from Central Arkansas. He's a solid inside-outside threat who made his team better at every level of offense. The downside is he's not a great defender and it's hard to assess how well a guy who has always been on sub-300 teams will adjust to high-major basketball. Max Klesmit has made that transition successfully. While he doesn't score as much as he did at Wofford due to lower usage, he had career highs in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and three point percentage while providing solid defense. John Blackwell will be the guy Bucky fans are hoping breaks out. He's a high-efficiency sniper who also excels at getting to the rim and the free throw line. Xavier Amos is the other likely transfer starter. The Northern Illinois transfer is a long athlete who is excellent both at the rim and at the arc. He's a lethal catch-and-shoot option (1.2 ppp/85th percentile) who like Hunter needs to show he can step up from sub-300 to high-major. Steven Crowl is somewhat unsung, but should be the star of this team. Crowl shot 44.8% from three, 61.6% at the rim, grabbed 9.9% of offensive rebounds, 21.5% of defensive rebounds, and did it all at a high efficiency. The bench is unproven but talented. Daniel Freitag looks like the next annoyingly good Badger guard. He's a productive scorer with great defensive length (6'8" wingspan) who should be a day one contributor. Don't be shocked if Freitag works his way into the starting lineup and is a breakout freshman. John Tonje was a high-level performer in the Mountain West at Colorado State, but will have to bounce back from an injury-plagued year at Missouri. Nolan Winter was supposed to be the impact freshman last year, but struggled to earn minutes.

Style of Play

At this point, Marquette fans should be almost as familiar with the Swing as Wisconsin fans are. Lots of ball movement, get the ball into the paint, then either finish there or continue moving the ball to get an open perimeter look. Lots of motion and cutting, running time off the clock, then finding the open shooter in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock. That said, Gard has tweaked his system based on roster composition more than Bo Ryan seemed to. Last year, he had a pair of driving guards in Hepburn and Storr who were not great outside shooters, which led to a heavier focus on shots at the rim. The bulk of last year's offense came from the drive or from cuts, as 57.3% of their actions were rim attack (29.5%), drive and kick (13.8%), perimeter cuts (10.3%), or big man cut and rolls (3.7%). They were in the 87th or better efficiency percentile in all of those plays, so Wisconsin maximized what they did well. When Gard had his best shooting teams, they shot heavier volume from three (2020 & 2021) and when he had Johnny Davis, his teams played faster (66.5 possessions/game in 2022 is the fastest by any Wisconsin team in kenpom's database going back to 1997). If Hunter, Amos, and Tonje can translate to the Big 10 they can legitimately put five shooters on the floor simultaneously. Expect this team to slow the pace and rain threes. With Crowl and Amos, there's the potential for more big-to-big high/low actions. Gard will likely have enough wrinkles to keep it effective.

Wisconsin knows what they do well and do that frequently
Graph from hoop-explorer.com

Defensively, the Badgers run man-to-man. They apply ball pressure, but do so without reaching to avoid fouls. The pressure isn't designed to turn teams over but to force the offensive player into help defense and bad looks. Wisconsin focuses heavily on how to defeat teams that screen, like Marquette. They are taught to both prevent the backside slip of a screen and to aggressively go over screens. They also extend their bigs to create defensive mismatches, which requires the bigs to be able to effectively play drop coverage. Crowl has been instrumental in this. Teams that play heavy drop coverage are often vulnerable on the defensive glass because the big men are extended away from the rim, but Crowl's defensive rebounding efficiency has led to the three best defensive rebounding rates of Gard's tenure, and the best rate since Frank Kaminsky was in Madison.

2024-25 Outlook

The consensus seems to be down on Wisconsin. T-Rank, ran by Wisconsin alum Bart Torvik, has the Badgers #41, which would be squarely on the bubble. Three Man Weave ranked Wisconsin as #57. Sports Illustrated pegged the Badgers as 12th in the Big Ten while 247 said 13th, all of which would likely be on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. If Hunter and Amos can't adjust to the Big 10, if John Tonje doesn't bounce back to his pre-injury form, if Daniel Freitag isn't ready, there's a very real chance the floor is low for this team. Gard missing the tournament for the second time in two years would put him on the hot seat.

However, I suspect these outlets are underrating the Badgers. The first reason is A.J. Storr. Coaches, fans, and pundits alike all tend to overvalue volume scorers. Yes, Storr was productive, but as a team, Wisconsin was 4.6 points/100 possessions worse with him on the floor, and it was a negative margin on both ends of the court. When he was at St. John's, they were 12.6/100 worse with him on the floor, so it seems like it's an A.J. Storr thing. Chucky Hepburn was better, providing a 4.4 points/100 possessions improvement on offense but being 3.6 points/100 possessions worse on defense nearly offset that. When they played together, the Badgers were slightly better on offense, but they were terrible on defense leading to a net -13.0/100 with Hepburn and Storr on the court. Bottom line, while the players they lost significantly impacted the box score, their impact on winning basketball was far less evident. Storr and Hepburn are replaceable players. If Hunter and Amos are indeed high-major players, and their transfer offer lists indicate many coaches think they are, this Wisconsin team could exceed expectations and possibly be even better than last year's. This team may not have the flashy names or an appealing play style, but expect them to be better than the sum of the parts, near the top of the Big 10 again, and in the NCAA Tournament. They have the proven defense to make every possession matter and an offensive system that thrives when it has shooters, which they do. Don't expect it to be easy if Shaka Smart manages to get his first win over Wisconsin since taking the Marquette job.

Marquette Connection

With Wisconsin's current three-game winning streak over Marquette, there isn't a single player on the Marquette roster that has ever beaten Wisconsin. Head coach Shaka Smart has only coached against Wisconsin while at Marquette, so he also has never defeated the Badgers. On the Wisconsin side, there is only one player who has ever played in a game that was a loss to Marquette. It isn't long-time Badgers Steven Crowl or Carter Gilmore. Both were members of the 2020-21 team that lost to Marquette at an empty Fiserv in the COVID season, but neither played in that game. The only current Badger who has lost to Marquette is Xavier Amos, who was a part of the Northern Illinois team that lost last year's season opener at Marquette 92-70. Amos played 28 minutes, scoring 8 points and tallying 4 assists, but came up short as Marquette ran out to a 22-point halftime lead and held it the rest of the way.

Xavier Amos tries to stop Tyler Kolek in NIU's 2023 loss at Fiserv
Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Iowa State Preview, 2024-25

Iowa State Cyclones

December 4th, 2024 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA

Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (169-98 overall, 70-35 at Iowa State)

Three-Year NET Average: 22.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 3

Tamin Lipsey led ISU to a Big 12 Tourney Title and the Sweet 16
Photo by Amy Kontras | USA Today Sports

State of the Program

There were questions about how good Iowa State really was early in the season. Their 11-2 non-conference record looked good, but they lost to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M in the Orlando Invitational, not exactly juggernaut teams, and their gaudy record was boosted up by playing eight buy games with an average winning margin of 39.8 points. They proved their mettle as the season went on. Their 13-5 Big 12 record was good for second in the toughest conference in the country. They followed that with a Big 12 Tournament Championship, then beat South Dakota State and Washington State to reach the Sweet 16, where they lost to Illinois 72-69. T.J. Otzelberger seems to have found the perfect program fit for his coaching style, as his three seasons in Ames have yielded a 70-35 record, three NCAA appearances, two Sweet 16s, and he has outperformed his kenpom projection each year while improving his team's NCAA seed from 11 to 6 to 2. This year, the Cyclones are widely regarded as a top-10 team once again while being a legitimate Final Four and even National Championship threat.

Rotation

The backcourt is the strength of this team. Tamin Lipsey is a legitimate All-American candidate and one of the best point guards in the country. Offensively, he's an excellent creator and reliable shooter, but his biggest strength is on defense at the point of attack, where he's one of the nation's best ballhawks. No returning player in the country had more kenpom game MVPs than Lipsey with 15. His backcourt partner is another defensive difference maker. Keshon Gilbert was originally recruited by Otzelberger to UNLV but joined him in Ames last year. He is a capable scorer who excels at getting downhill and scoring at the rim. Similar to Lipsey, he is a stout defensive presence that can generate turnovers. Milan Momcilovic is fairly one-dimensional as a shooter. Despite his size he struggles to get to the paint and is far more likely to settle for midrange or take spot-up threes. Up front, Joshua Jefferson is a transfer from St. Mary's who seems to fit TJO's system perfectly. While he can contribute offensively, where he really stands out is on defense. St. Mary's was 10.8 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor, he's an elite rebounder on both ends, and like Lipsey and Gilbert excels at forcing turnovers. Dishon Jackson is another transfer from Charlotte who will provide a post-up threat inside and rim protection on the defensive end. Their bench is deep and experienced. Curtis Jones is yet another exceptional ball thief and competent offensive contributor that gives little dropoff when Lipsey or Gilbert need a rest. Demarion Watson and Seattle transfer Brandton Chatfield provide size and defensive versatility up front while both are also solid on the offensive glass.

Style of Play

While TJO has a variety of players that have shown the ability to score, there are no go-to scorers on this roster. Last year's Iowa State team was #52 in offensive efficiency, which is his best mark with the Cyclones, but still nothing overly impressive. Their best offense comes in transition, which is keyed by ranking #2 in steal rate each of the past two seasons. However they bog down in the half-court. They aren't great at driving and settle too easily for midrange shots (10th in midrange rate). They did seem to make a concerted effort to add offensive rebounding in the transfer portal, so expect this team to hit the glass harder next year as they saw first hand (Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois) how much it can help teams that are shooting-challenged.

No one is better at creating turnovers & turning them into points than ISU
Chart courtesy of cbbanalytics.com

Iowa State had the #1 defense in the nation last year. The Cyclone defense is predicated first on turning teams over. They start with active hands and relentless ball pressure. They aim to force opponents to difficult spots on the floor and push them into two-man defensive sets. They try to create effectively a triangle defense that allows two players to close out on shots. While Iowa State stresses putting ball pressure on early, in the half-court they want to create space on defense between the offensive player and the defender. The larger the gap between the defender and the offensive player, the harder it is to drive and the more difficult it is to pass because they have that much more time to get a hand on the ball. The theory is simply that the more space the defender creates, the harder it is for the offensive player to play their game. Otzelberger also preaches taking big steps. His players are drilled to only move toward the offensive player when they are closing out on a shot and are strategic in covering as much ground as quickly as possible. The downside to this is the defensive three-point rate. ISU has ranked sub-350 in three-point rate allowed the past two seasons. The aggressive closeouts and pursuit of turnovers also lead to many free throws. As good as the defense is, the aggressiveness can be exploited.

2024-25 Outlook

ISU is playing a tougher non-con this year, though still have 6 buy games on the schedule. In addition to Marquette, they have Iowa on the road and travel to Maui where they'll open with a top-10 matchup against Auburn, followed by UNC/Dayton, with UConn and Michigan State on the other side of the bracket. Their Big 12 schedule will be tough, with double-dips against Kansas and Arizona. The Cyclone defense gives them a very high floor, but how far they go will likely be determined by the offense. The highest percentage of shots they took were from midrange, which is the least efficient place on the floor to shoot from, while ranking sub-300 in frequency of shots taken both from three and at the rim. I don't expect significant shot selection improvement, but they have good enough shooters that modest improvement in 3PFG% and rate could lead to a significant improvement, while having stronger offensive rebounders could help clean up all the bricks their midrange shooters leave on the court. If this offense is in the 40-60 range again, their ceiling is probably a high seed but a second weekend flameout because at some point you have to score. But if they can tick up to a top-25 offense, this could be a Final Four team.

Marquette Connection

It feels like Marquette fans have referred to Ames as Marquette South for years. So many Marquette players have transferred to Iowa State that I decided to try to make a starting five of Marquette Cyclones. Let's see the roster!

 

PG - Scott Christopherson: He's the one that started it. Recruited by Crean, Buzz Williams ran him off and he went on to score over 1,000 points for the Cyclones.

SG - Mackenzie Hare: It isn't just the men that have transferred to Iowa State. Hare led the Big East in 3PFG%, then entered the portal this offseason right before coach Megan Duffy left for Virginia Tech.

SF - Marial Shayok: Okay, he never actually played for Marquette, but Shayok was a Marquette commit who followed Buzz to Virginia Tech, then transferred to ISU.

PF - Deonte Burton: Perhaps the one that hurts the most, Burton was an explosive freak athlete who was a cornerstone of the 2013 recruiting class, but decided to leave Milwaukee after his mother died. He averaged 15.1 ppg/6.2 rpg as a senior.

C - Jameel McKay: The JUCO transfer made it to campus but transferred before his first year at Marquette started, in part because he didn't want to play center. At Iowa State, he averaged 11.1 ppg/8.3 rpg over two years...playing center.

Bench - Nick Noskowiak: A blast from the past name, the Buzz recruit was released from his National Letter of Intent after Wojo took over. He committed to Iowa State and enrolled, but stepped away from the program before ever suiting up with multiple felony charges hanging over his head. Here's hoping he turned things around after those rough years.

Western Carolina Preview, 2024-25

Western Carolina Catamounts

November 30th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Tim Craft (188-166 overall, 0-0 at Western Carolina)

Three-Year NET Average: 214.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 209.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 280

 

Bernard Pelote is the only returning player that logged minutes for WCU last year

Photo from Western Carolina Athletics

State of the Program

The past three years under Justin Gray the Catamounts was a constant elevation. They finished last in the SoCon his first year, but thanks to triple-double machine Vonterius Woolbright they climbed to fourth in the league and went from #296 in kenpom in 2022 up to #110 last year. Unfortunately for Catamount fans, Gray and Woolbright are both gone, as is every other starter. Replacing Gray at the helm is Tim Craft, who spent the last 11 years at Gardner-Webb, taking over from Chris Holtmann. He sustained Holtmann's success, never had a losing Big South season, is responsible for the four highest kenpom rankings in program history, and led the Bulldogs to their only NCAA Tournament appearance in 2019. WCU will be a complete overhaul, however. He returns just one player that logged 2023-24 minutes for the Catamounts in Bernard Pelote, and bolsters his roster with a mix of D1 transfers, JUCO transfers, and freshmen.

Rotation

It's hard to project what this team will be when nearly everyone from the head coach to the last man off the bench is new, but the strategy seems to be clear. Brandon Morgan was a stud at the JUCO level, putting up big numbers for Caldwell Tech. He can create for himself, find the open man, make threes, and protect the ball. He's joined by Neenah, WI native Chevalier "Ice" Emery, another JUCO transfer who led Dodge City CC in scoring. Emery was also a state champion at Neenah who is dangerous beyond the arc. The third guard is Cord Stansberry, who joins from Pepperdine. While he played limited minutes, he could score at all three levels, hitting 38.8% from three, 55.2% in midrange, and 68.4% at the rim. He played sparingly, so it remains to be seen if he can do that with a heavier minute load. Bernard Pelote is the lone returnee. He will step up from the sixth man role and has proven himself to be a high-efficiency inside-out scorer who is an asset on the glass and rarely turns the ball over. Brandon White is a bit of a mystery. He spent his redshirt freshman season with Buzz Williams at Texas A&M before transferring closer to home. White is a big, physical shot-blocker who had a number of high major offers including Creighton, Houston, and Purdue. The bench will likely be anchored by another JUCO sniper in Jamar Livingston and Princeton transfer big Vernon Collins.

Style of Play

Tim Craft will be adjusting to a new team, but as we note above, the strategy looks clear. His Gardner-Webb teams love to attack the paint, and when he has shooters, take a heavy volume of threes. They rarely get forced into mid-range shots. Looking at this roster, he will regularly be able to put four players who are capable shooters around a productive space-eater inside. Expect Morgan, Emery, Stansberry, and Livingston to move the ball, drive to collapse the defense, then either finish at the rim or dish back out to the open shooter. White, Collins, and Pelote are both capable at the rim finishers who can also do work on the offensive glass. Pelote has the ability to step out to the arc as well, which gives the Catamounts true four-out ability. Craft added the wrinkle of pushing transition last year, something his teams didn't typically do. They don't force a ton of turnovers, but were in the 96th percentile in creating transition opportunities. Aside from an offensive rebound, it was their highest points per possession play (1.17 ppp) so even though they were not efficient relative to the rest of the country, GW still recognized the effectiveness of catching teams napping, so don't be surprised to see Western Carolina attack quickly when the opportunity presents itself.

Craft had to adjust his defense last year. Typically, he likes to have a pair of rim protectors in the middle to shut down drivers. It's been effective, as Gardner-Webb was top-50 in three of the past four years at forcing teams into midrange shots. Last year, his shot blockers all left at the same time, so they shifted their focus to chasing teams off the three point line. Despite not having shot-blockers, they still were 26th at forcing midrange, so the philosophy was effective even with different personnel. I expect White to be the hub of the defense. The guards will try to take away open threes and either funnel to White or cut off the drive to force midrange attempts.

2024-25 Outlook

T-Rank is pessimistic on the Catamounts. Their #280 preseason ranking is 8th out of 10 teams in the SoCon. I'll go out on a limb and say this is one I think Torvik's model misses on. While they weren't at the D1 level, this team is full of accurate three-point shooters. If you take the roster as a whole, they shot 236/598 (39.5%) combined at the D1 and JUCO D1 levels. That would've been top-5 in the nation last year. They have a high-major recruit in the middle of those shooters who was a target of elite programs. And Craft is an overachiever, finishing higher than his preseason kenpom rank in 8/11 seasons at Gardner-Webb. This is a well-coached team with solid offensive weapons all over the floor. Craft's defense was in the top-half of the SoCon in 10/11 seasons, including finishing in the top-3 each of the past three years. This roster is heavy with JUCO players and has 4 scholarship players that redshirted last year. That's not easy for a computer model to accurately evaluate. Expect Western Carolina to contend for the top half of the SoCon, blow their computer projection out of the water, and possibly be a Q3 game by the time Selection Sunday rolls around.

Marquette Connection

The Golden Eagles are 4-0 all-time against the Catamounts, but it wasn't always easy. The teams opened the season against each other in 2004-05 and Western Carolina could smell the upset. It was a homecoming game for big man David Berghoefer, who played his high school ball at Middleton and paced the Catamounts with 20 points. Western Carolina surged out early, establishing a 38-33 lead at halftime and putting a scare into Marquette. It was Dameon Mason who finally clawed back the lead at 46-44 in the second half, but it wasn't until Steve Novak's hit jumpers on consecutive possessions to push the lead to 58-52 that Marquette started to get some breathing room. Travis Diener led the way with 27 points while Novak added 22. Ultimately, Marquette held on for a 75-64 victory in the Bradley Center.

Stonehill Preview, 2024-25

Stonehill Skyhawks

November 27th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Chris Kraus (148-143 overall, 18-44 in Division I)

Two-Year NET Average: 334.5

Two-Year kenpom Average: 345.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 342

Todd Brogna and Chris Kraus hope for better results in 2024-25

Photo from Stonehill Athletics

State of the Program

Stonehill joined Division 1 two years ago with some modest success. They notched 4 non-conference wins, 3 against fellow D1 opponents, and followed that up with a respectable 10-6 NEC campaign, tied for the second best record in the league. Year two fell off massively. They went just 4-27 and finished last in the NEC, which was the worst league in D1. They ranked #359 according to kenpom out of 362 teams. The dismal season was backed up by their top three scorers departing, two to transfer. It looks like a stiff uphill climb already for Chris Kraus.

Rotation

Transfers forced Kraus to overhaul his backcourt. Amir Nesbitt comes over from Hampton and will likely get the first shot at the point. He's a solid distributor but struggled to get consistent minutes. Josh Morgan will be looking to recapture his sophomore year success. He had his peak in scoring, rebounds, assists, and efficiency that year but has seen his minutes and starting opportunities decline in the two years since. He's a better shooter than last year's numbers indicate, hitting 35.2% from deep for his career. Chas Stinson steps up from spot starter to bigger minutes. He was better as a defensive ballhawk than as an offensive player, but did have a 5-game stretch where he averaged 15.0 ppg/7.0 rpg, showing flashes of potential. Shane O'Dell only played in 5 games all season, but started all of them and Kraus will hope he comes close to matching his D2 numbers, where he did a bit of everything for St. Rose, posting 16.3 ppg/6.9 rpg/4.4 apg. Todd Brogna will need to play bigger this year. He's a solid rim protector and rebounder. The bench is anchored by Iona transfer Alex Bates as well as a pair of returning forwards. While Stonehill isn't big across the board, they do have some size off their bench and won't get smaller when they need to go to their reserves.

Style of Play

Offensively, Stonehill is a slower paced version of modern basketball philosophy. They attack the rim and take a ton of threes, while ranking 341st in attempts from the midrange. They get a lot of their perimeter shots from drive and kick or inside out action. When they attack inside, it either comes from the drive or from cutters flashing in from the perimeter. The problem is they simply weren't very good at any of that. As a team, they shot 30.1% from three (327th nationally) and at the rim shot 51.8% (345th). Just look at their shot chart, that's a lot of blue. Kraus will need internal development as well as his transfers to add shooting pop if they want to elevate their offense.

Whether inside or outside, Stonehill struggled to make shots

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

On the defensive end, the Skyhawks pressure for turnovers and try to keep teams off the line. The problem is their rebounding weaknesses and proclivity for turning the ball over on offense put them into a ridiculous number of transition defense situations. Teams got out in transition on 22.3% of possessions against Stonehill, which was 358th in the country. That's not good. In addition, Stonehill is too willing to get into three-point shooting contests, ranking 359th in defensive three-point attempt rate. When you take and miss a ton of threes on offense and allow opponents to take a ton (and make a ton) on defense, it's not a good combination, which is a big part of why they had 18 double-digit margins of defeat.

2024-25 Outlook

The optimistic case for Stonehill is that last year's roster just didn't fit. They had two guards who were necessary to make the offense go but were liabilities on defense. With them gone and the potential for improved shooting on a team that prioritizes the three, maybe they turn the page back to 2023. But the problem with that is their new back court is made up of what look to be castoffs from other sub-300 teams. None of the returners were very productive and none were difference makers on what was one of the worst teams in Division 1. Frankly, this team should be little more than a speed bump when they visit Milwaukee, and a team that turns it over a lot and lets opponents get out in transition probably looks at a defense like Marquette's as their worst nightmare. Maybe they figure it out by conference play, but this team has a long way to go and shouldn't pose much of a threat to Marquette.

Marquette Connection

This game will be a reunion of sorts for Tre Norman. In 2023, he was on a loaded Worcester Academy team with Virginia forward T.J. Power, Georgetown freshman Kayvaun Mulready, and Stonehill big man Todd Brogna. Together they led the Hilltoppers to a 29-5 record, making it to the semifinals of the National Prep Championship where they lost 65-62 to Sunrise Christian. This will be the first but not the last time this season that Norman takes on one of his old prep school teammates. He'll see Mulready when Marquette faces Georgetown in conference play as well.

Power, Brogna, and Norman at their National Signing Day ceremony

Photo from Worcester Basketball Twitter | @WA_VBB

 

Georgia Preview, 2024-25

Georgia Bulldogs

November 23rd, 2024 at Atlantis Resort, Bahamas

Head Coach: Mike White (279-161 overall, 36-33 at Georgia)

Three-Year NET Average: 158.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 152.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 40

All-SEC Freshman Silas Demary Jr. led Georgia to the NIT Final Four
Photo by Jordan Prather | USA Today Sports

State of the Program

Mike White's second season in Athens was a big step up from the first. Their 10-3 non-conference slate included wins over Wake Forest and Florida State, though they stumbled to a second straight 6-12 SEC season. It was enough to reach the NIT, where they got hot. Wins over Xavier, Wake Forest (again), and Ohio State saw them reach the semifinals at Hinkle Fieldhouse before falling to eventual champions Seton Hall. The offseason was rough. Three players graduated, seven more transferred, and just three scholarship players are back, all of whom were freshmen last year.

Rotation

Silas Demary is the hub of this team. He has a big, powerful frame that he uses very well in attacking inside, finishing at the rim, and getting to the line. He can play on or off the ball, which is why he will benefit from having Dakota Leffew next to him. The Mount St. Mary's transfer is a capable scorer and shot-creator for himself and others. He gives Georgia a two-point guard look, though they'll need him to perform at the level he did when he caught White's eye, going for 26 points and 5 assists for MSM in a game against Georgia last year. A pair of high-major transfers bolster the lineup. Tyrin Lawrence comes from Vanderbilt after a down season in terms of efficiency while R.J. Godfrey is a defensive stopper from Clemson. Their additions will help with the departed experience. White also secured a top-10 recruiting class, anchored by the center rotation of five-star Asa Newell and four-star Somto Cyril. Newell is an excellent prospect who is an explosive athlete that can finish above the rim and stretch the floor to the arc while providing solid rim protection on the defensive end. Somto Cyril is another great rim protector, though his offensive game is mostly limited to playing the dunker role. The bench is rounded out with Blue Cain, who was a spot starter last year for the Bulldogs, and Justin Abson, who transfers in from Appalachian State and could challenge for a starting role.

Leffew is a heads up player who can create for himself and others

Image from Dawgs 247

Style of Play

Historically, Mike White's teams like to get out and attack in transition. He did that to great success at Louisiana Tech and while they played slower at Florida, his last four years saw him try to return to a transition attack. At Georgia, they've been in the 68th and 63rd percentile his first two seasons, and while it worked well in year one, they sucked at transition last year, finishing in the 30th percentile in efficiency. Where they were more effective was creating with the drive. They were high frequency/high efficiency in attacking the rim, kicking out, or pulling up for a dribble jumper, where they are particularly lethal. The question will be how Leffew and Lawrence fit into that. Neither are the drivers that Demary is, and both take far more midrange shots than White prefers. If Newell's shot translates, don't be surprised to see the bigs inverted on offense, with Godfrey posting up and attacking the interior while Newell gets open to bury the kick-out three. He hasn't had great rebounding teams, but when they do get on the offensive glass, watch for the quick kick-out to an open shooter.

Defensively, this feels more like a Mike White team than his first two at Georgia. His teams play aggressive on the perimeter, running teams off the line and forcing them into bad passes that lead to turnovers. When you can get past the perimeter, there's typically a long, athletic shot-blocker waiting at the rim with help side defenders equally aggressive in pursuing blocks. As a result, defensive rebounding tends to be a weakness. The last two years he simply hasn't had the personnel to do that. The guards didn't apply enough pressure on the perimeter, and he had Braelen Bridges and Russell Tchewa, who had ridiculously anemic shot blocking rates for seven-footers. Leffew and Lawrence both seem better suited to provide the perimeter defense White wants. Demary was good at forcing turnovers and should be better with experience in the system. Inside, Newell and Cyril are both excellent shot-blockers while Godfrey is a great help side defender. Last year's defense was adequate but not on par with White's history.

2024-25 Outlook

When you see a team with a pair of productive returners, a pair of fifth year transfer starting, a pair of marquee freshmen, and a top-40 preseason T-Rank, that should be a tournament team. But in the SEC, that prediction is only good for 11th in the league. Demary has star potential, Leffew and Lawrence are productive pieces, and the personnel match the way White wants to play defense. What determines how far this team goes is likely if someone can emerge as a second star alongside Demary. If Leffew can translate his production up a level, if Newell can be an immediate impact player, if Godfrey can provide similar efficiency in expanded minutes, any one of those could make this a tourney team. The X-factor may be sophomore transfer De'Shayne Montgomery, who was a blossoming star next to Leffew at Mount St. Mary's. He's a killer both at the rim (64.6%) and from beyond the arc (41.2%), and if that translates up from the MAAC to the SEC he could be a difference-maker off the bench. If they can go 3-2 in their marquee non-con games (Georgia Tech, Marquette, St. John's, Notre Dame, Grand Canyon) and get to 9-9 in the SEC, they should be a tourney team. Considering it's been a decade since they made the field, more than two decades since they won a tourney game, and nearly three since making the Sweet 16, that would both be a worthy goal and great accomplishment.

Marquette Connection

What do the greatest player in Marquette history and the greatest player in Georgia history have in common? Both Dwyane Wade and Anthony Edwards were recruited by Tom Crean. The coach that took Marquette to the Final Four in 2003 also led Georgia from 2018 through 2022. Crean's teams at Georgia didn't match his previous success, going just 47-75 in four seasons, with only one winning season in 2021. Crean and Marquette seemed to pass like ships in the night since his departure. Marquette last played Georgia in a home-and-home in 2016 and 2017. Crean took over Georgia the next year. And who did Marquette play in non-conference in Crean's first year at Georgia? The Indiana program he had left just a year before. Once again, Marquette will play a once Crean-coached team a short time removed from him leaving that post.

Purdue Preview, 2024-25

Purdue Boilermakers

November 19th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Matt Painter (472-208 overall, 447-203 at Purdue)

Three-Year NET Average: 6.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 16

Braden Smith has averaged 19.0 ppg in two wins over Marquette
Photo from Sports Illustrated

State of the Program

There was a time when Matt Painter had back-to-back losing seasons and seemed headed for a third in late 2015 after an 8-5 non-con slate including two buy game losses. Instead, his team rallied to a 12-6 Big 10 record and made the NCAA Tournament, the first of nine straight appearances. The Boilermakers have also finished in the top-25 of kenpom for nine straight years and last year made the Final Four for the first time since 1980, falling in the Championship Game to UConn. The obvious change is that two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey is gone. It's hard to convey the gravity Edey drew on the court, but we'll try. He was top-10 in the nation in usage, led the country in fouls drawn, and in the event he did miss a shot (62.4 2PFG%) he led the country in offensive rebounds per game. Purdue was 24.5 points/100 possessions better on offense 7.5/100 better on defense with him on the floor. The simple math means that Edey meant Purdue was 32.0 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor than off. His impact stretched beyond himself, because while teams doubled him virtually every time he touched the ball, Purdue's 40.4 3PFG% was second in the country, meaning as soon as you double Edey, there's a lights out shooter open at the arc. This team will be different without him, but they do return three starters and have a number of bench options eager to step up to starring roles. Painter has established himself as one of the elite coaches in the sport and Purdue has the look of a perennial top-20 program going forward.

Rotation

Purdue still has an All-American candidate, and it's point guard Braden Smith. There were questions as to how tough he was after fading at the end of his freshman year, but he quieted those questions with a stellar statline, earning first-team All-Big 10. The departure of Edey may impact him the most as his assist rate was heavily predicated on feeding the monster in the post. Fletcher Loyer is a mercurial guard alongside Smith. Despite his size, he doesn't play with physicality and isn't a defensive stalwart. At times he will disappear in big games (0 points on 0/5 shooting in the title game) but he's also capable of bursting out (27 points against both Tennessee and Arizona last year). Myles Colvin is one of the most athletic Boilermakers. He saw his minutes tick up late in the season and seemed to earn some trust from Painter. Camden Heide looks the part of a breakout player. He has the athleticism, shooting, and length to be a plus contributor, but needs to be more consistent. On a team where monsters roam the middle, Trey Kaufman-Renn will look small in the middle. He did start every game last year as a forward, but will need to show he can protect the paint and the rim. He is good on the offensive glass, and with four guys who shot over 40% from deep around him, there should be space down low for him to operate.

While the starting lineup looks solid, there are questions of how deep this team will go. Gicarri Harris is the son of Purdue legend Glenn Robinson and is the most likely first guard off the bench. If he isn't ready on the defensive end, they may use Colvin to help with ball handling and go big up front. Caleb Furst was a part of the rotation, but his minutes declined as the season went on. Will Berg is 7'2" and freshman big Daniel Jacobson is 7'4", giving Painter guys with frames that meet the Edey, Haarms, Haas molds. Whether they'll be ready this year remains to be seen, though that may apply to the entire bench. Purdue had one of the best starting lineups in the country last year, but they logged heavy minutes. Everyone who averaged 10+ mpg is either starting on this year's team or departed. Furst is the only returning bench player who averaged more than 5 mpg, and #75 Harris is the only freshman out of five ranked in the top-100 per 247.

Style of Play

Painter has shown himself to be somewhat of a chameleon when it comes to his offense. He does very well at adjusting to personnel. For years his teams focused on back to the basket play because he had monsters down low like Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas. When Carsen Edwards emerged, his teams became very three-heavy. The past three years Purdue has prized ball movement, working to get the ball in to Edey so he could either score inside (usually drawing a foul in the process) or swing it back to the perimeter when the defense collapsed on him. Either way, misses were vacuumed up by Edey, TKR, and Furst, all of whom are excellent offensive rebounders. It's safe to assume Purdue will have to adjust without the titanic force of Edey down low. Expect a bit of a return to the three-heavy style of play. This team has the ability to put four shooters at the arc and hit from anywhere. TKR and Furst both have some ability to hit from deep as well, so this team will be able to play five out at times. Expect this team to slow the pace as well. They won't be as athletic as some of their opponents, so deliberate play that works deep into the shot clock and ends with a rip your heart out three suits Purdue very well.

Defensively, the expectation is that Purdue is going to stick to a rigid man defense. While Matt Painter won't call it zone, they did add some wrinkles to last year's defense. There's a heavy focus on keeping the ball out of the paint. They'll work to cut off drivers and passing lanes inside. Against a dynamic guard like Boo Buie of Northwestern, they spent portions of possessions in what looked like a man-zone hybrid, most similar to a 1-2-2. They kept Edey down low to protect the rim and dominate the glass, but had two layers of two defenders playing with arms spread as big as possible to force the ball out of Buie's hands and limit the Wildcats ability to get the ball inside. Don't be surprised to see a similar wrinkle for Kam Jones, who in two games against Purdue has scored 36 points on 59.3 eFG% with 10 assists as well, and will be even more of a focal point this year.

2024-25 Preview

The general consensus seems to be that Purdue will again be a favorite in the Big 10. That said, it's a league with zero teams in the T-Rank projected top-15. It's hard not to project a big step back for a team losing a player as colossally important as Edey was to Purdue, but there are still reasons to expect a solid season. Three starters return from a team that was runner-up for the national title. While they didn't bring in any significant transfers, the bulk of their rotation will be players that are established in the system and they have a top-20 recruiting class to add depth. The optimistic case for Purdue is an experienced team led by an All-American point guard with shooting all over the court that can again compete for a Final Four. The pessimistic case is that Smith's efficiency was buoyed by Edey and they simply won't be able to recreate his impact, finding themselves closer to a double-digit seed than a protected one. Purdue will be a tough early test for Marquette. Their slow pace and shooting will allow the Boilermakers to hang with anyone provided the shots are falling. While there's no Edey, they have no shortage of candidates to make an impact in the middle and every starting center at Purdue the last 10 years has been at worst an All-Big Ten honorable mention (7/10 have been first or second team all-league). To beat Purdue, Marquette will need to dictate pace with deflections and turnovers, limit second chance kick-outs, and unlike last year, make their shots beyond the arc.

Marquette Connection

In recent years, Marquette and Purdue have built a little bit of a rivalry, even though Marquette has only one win in the all-time series. This year will be the third game between the programs in three years (with another in 2025-26), and last year's contest came with the highest stakes since Purdue beat Marquette in overtime in the 1969 NCAA Tournament. The teams met in the Maui Invitational Championship Game with not just the Maui title but the #1 ranking on the line. The first half was closely contested until a 10-0 Purdue run. They kept Marquette at arm's length, then Lance Jones hit a 75-foot three pointer at the buzzer to push the halftime lead to 45-33. Marquette rallied and got as close as a 1-point deficit in the final minute, but ultimately Purdue held on to win Maui. Maybe it was the Jones three. Maybe it was Oso picking up two fouls in the first six minutes that limited him to 26 minutes, the only time he played fewer than 30 minutes in a game that wasn't a blowout win. Maybe it was Purdue's three-point fortune as that game was the only time a team shot over 40% from deep on the stiff Honolulu rims. Regardless, it was an instant classic that will be revisited this year and next with this home-and-home series.

Zach Edey took home all the hardware in paradise

Photo from Purdue Rivals

Maryland Preview, 2024-25

Maryland Terrapins

November 15th, 2024 at Xfinity Center, College Park, MD

Head Coach: Kevin Willard (308-240 overall, 38-30 at Maryland)

Three-Year NET Average: 67.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 56.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 42

Maryland's Julian Reese is a linchpin on both ends of the court
Photo from umterps.com

State of the Program

Expectations were high for the Terrapins as they returned three starters from an NCAA team while adding a top-20 recruiting class and experience through the transfer portal. It only took four games for the season to go wrong as they stumbled to a 1-3 start, dropping close contests to Davidson and UAB before getting blown out at Villanova. While returning stars Jahmir Young, Donta Scott, and Julian Reese all proved to be reliable, high-efficiency contributors, none of the freshman could say the same and none of the transfers proved to be difference makers. Perhaps the biggest problem was a focus on three-point shooting. The Terps took 37.5% of their shots from three but only got 26.5% of their points came beyond the arc. As a team they shot 28.9% from deep which was largely a product of the newcomers to the rotation shooting a combined 58/264 (22.0%) beyond the arc. They ranked #347 in three-point efficiency which when coupled with a relatively high usage attempt at the arc and not much better two-point efficiency (48.8% was 247th nationally) led to an anemic offense. The defense was a different story. Maryland's shot-blocking tandem of Reese and Jordan Geronimo protected the paint while length and athleticism all over the court led to the 14th ranked defense per kenpom. That D kept them in games, but it didn't win them games as Maryland was 2-10 in games decided by 5 points or fewer or in overtime. Ultimately, the slow start coupled with never being able to string together successes in Big 10 play led to Kevin Willard's first losing season in over a decade as Maryland went 16-17 (7-13). Young and Scott are gone, but Reese returns to lead what should be another suffocating defense with more question marks on offense.

Rotation

The first priority for Willard was adding shooting, and that starts with Belmont transfer Ja'Kobi Gillespie. At 6'1", Gillespie was the only player his height or shorter to rank in the top-100 nationally in 2PFG% (39th) and he was also effective from deep, shooting 39.0% beyond the arc. He was remarkably consistent, with only three games below 100 ORtg and none below 95, while maintaining his efficiency levels against Tier A&B competition. He's joined by South Florida transfer Selton Miguel in the back court, who wasn't as consistent but was equally effective from deep and showed microwave capability, such as his 25 point outburst in USF's win over Florida Atlantic that basically clinched the AAC title. DeShawn Harris-Smith was last year's prominent recruit, and while he didn't do anything particularly well in the box score, Maryland was 7.3 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor. Reese is the star of this team, having posted 15 double-doubles. He's at his best when he can patrol the paint and serve as a lob threat and glass cleaner. Those tasks should be made easier by the addition of top-15 recruit Derik Queen, nicknamed "Black Baby Jokic." The big man was MVP of the McDonald's All American game and is highly regarded for his crafty footwork and high-level passing. In addition, his presence on the defensive end gives Willard another rim protector. Off the bench, Willard has an experienced group that should be able to give minutes without too much dropoff, headlined by a pair of fifth year guys in Jahari Long and Jordan Geronimo that can be effective role-players and another shot-blocker in Georgia Tech transfer Tafara Gapare. If they can get any contributions from transfers Rodney Rice (Va Tech) or Chance Stephens (LMU), both of whom are better offensive options than the shooters that transferred out, the offense could take a step forward.

Style of Play

Marquette fans should be familiar with how Willard wants to play. On offense, he likes to spread the floor with multiple shooters while putting a monster in the middle at the dunker spot to serve as a lob and putback threat, though last year's dearth of shooting made that difficult. Typically, he prefers going with multiple ball-handlers (Carrington/Whitehead, McKnight/Powell, Richmond/Aiken) to spread teams out. Gillespie and Miguel in theory could be dual ball-handlers, but haven't had to do it at the Big 10 level. The inability to shoot last year allowed teams to clog the paint and take away the interior as well, as the shot chart below demonstrates. The new guards can shoot, but they are the only two projected starters that can as Harris-Smith is miserable from deep (20.2 3PG%) and neither Reese nor Queen are expected to be able to step out. When Willard tries go to twin towers, will that lead to savvy big-to-big passing or a clogged lane and turnovers as they try to establish a freshman big man?

Maryland was woeful on offense, particularly from three

Shot chart from CBBAnalytics.com

 

Defense should be where this team stands out. This team excels at chasing opponents off the three point line, pressuring at the perimeter, and blocking shots. Gillespie understands his defensive role well and they have length and athleticism at every position. Expect an energetic, active defense and the big rotation of Reese, Queen, and Gapare provide stout rim protection while Jordan Geronimo has the ability to be a help side shot blocker. Their top defensive lineup should be among the best defensive groups in the country.

2024-25 Outlook

Maryland certainly has some serious talent on their roster. They likely have at least one future NBA player in Queen. The real question is going to be how Willard juggles his lineups. If they want to spread the floor with shooters like Long, Rice, and Stephens, they lose length and get significantly worse defensively. If they stay big with their best athletes, they could struggle to score with few reliable shooters and a clogged lane. If all breaks right, this is a team with NCAA Tournament upside, but it will be a difficult road to get there because the schedule is thin on opportunity. Marquette is one of just three high-major opponents on their non-conference schedule, with neutral site games against Villanova and Syracuse being the others. In Big 10 play, they play the league's projected top-4 teams (Purdue, Illinois, Oregon, and Indiana) just once each, and all of those games are on the road. This feels like a team that could have a gaudy record come Selection Sunday but still be on the bubble simply because the wins they get might not be the wins they need to get into the field.

As far as this matchup, Marquette's win over Illinois was their first true road win in November since 2003. Defensively, Marquette needs to turn up the pressure to test Maryland's ball handling and keep the ball out of the paint. While their shooting will likely be improved, the Terps settle for midrange and execute poorly there when they can't get it inside. Offensively, Maryland is going to smother the paint, so Marquette needs to move the ball for open shots and make the most of the perimeter opportunities they get. This will likely be a grinding game as Maryland doesn't want to get into a high-tempo shootout with Marquette so don't be surprised if this isn't the most aesthetically pleasing affair.

Marquette Connection

In four years at Maryland, Darryl Morsell amassed 1,090 points, 510 rebounds, and 271 assists while being named the 2021 Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. The moment most Marquette fans remember from his time at Maryland was when he shut down Markus Howard in the 2019 Orlando Invitational Championship Game. That was all forgiven when Morsell transferred to Marquette for Shaka Smart's first season in Milwaukee. The Maryland transfer got off to a white hot start, scoring 20+ points in each of his first four games, a feat he hadn't accomplished in his entire career at Maryland. Perhaps no game stood out more than his career high 26-point performance in a 73-72 win against Seton Hall at home. Morsell was brilliant, going 8/12 from the field (including 4/5 on threes), 6/6 from the line, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and a crucial late game block. And who was the coach that Morsell got the best of in that dominant performance for Marquette? None other than current Maryland coach Kevin Willard.

Central Michigan Preview, 2024-25

Central Michigan Chippewas

November 11th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Tony Barbee (166-185 overall, 35-58 at Central Michigan)

Three-Year NET Average: 304.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 309.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 265

Anthony Pritchard leads the Chippewa attack

Photo from Central Michigan Athletics

State of the Program

Tony Barbee notched his first winning season at Central Michigan, finishing at 18-14, including a stellar 12-6 in the MAC that saw the Chippewas finish fourth in the league, which was only more impressive as they started the season 5-8 before turning things around. They accomplished that by slowing the pace and playing lockdown defense. The downside is that preceded a rough summer with six of the top eight rotation players leaving via graduation or transfer. Barbee was aggressive in return, bringing in five players via transfer expected to contribute.

Rotation

The rotation starts at the point, where Anthony Pritchard is the tip of the spear on defense and the maestro of the offense. He led the Chippewas in scoring, assists, and steals before entering the transfer portal, though he later withdrew. Jakobi Heady joins him in the backcourt from Bethune-Cookman. He thrives attacking inside and was an indispensable offensive piece as BCU scored 15.4 points/100 possessions more with him on the court. Cayden Vasko returns from last year's team where he was the defensive specialist, which is fortunate because his offensive efficiency was anemic. Up front, Barbee brought in a pair of transfers. Ugnius Jarusevicius from Cal State Bakersfield provides a big body while Armani Mighty struggled to break through at Boston College but should make more of an impact in the MAC. The real issue the team has is on the bench, where the total of ten transfers out left Barbee to scramble for relatively unproven role-players.

Style of Play

At CMU, Barbee has transitioned from an up-tempo offense that relies on threes and paint shots to a slower pace offense that takes fewer threes and settles for more midrange. The positive is that midrange shots are the only action where they their efficiency is not in the bottom third percentile (39th). The negative is that they still only score 0.71 points per possession on midrange, which is the lowest efficiency rate of any action they use more than 2% of the time. But the alternatives aren't much better. They shot 30.0% and 30.1% from three the last two years and lost their only two shooters who averaged over 28.0% last season.

Their work in the transfer portal seems like a deliberate move to further change the offense. Heady is lethal at both getting into the lane and finishing at the rim. While the team still doesn't have shooters, they have excellent offensive rebounders in Jarusevicius and Mighty. They also have 7-foot sophomore Hunter Harding who will hope to develop as an interior force. Expect this team to try to get inside, settle for midrange when they can't get to the rim, and attack the offensive glass relentlessly.

Yikes, lots of room for offensive improvement here

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

The defensive end of the floor is where CMU should excel. They had the #1 defense in the MAC last year. CMU uses their length well and attack shooters. They have shot blockers all over the floor, and expect that to continue with the length they have all over the court. What's most impressive is they aren't foul-prone for a team that aggressively challenges shots. They are happy to play in the half-court and their pressure is on the shooters, not the ball-handlers. Barbee had his first winning season and league records at CMU last year, and if that is to continue it will be because of their work on defense.

2024-25 Outlook

Roster continuity is a problem, but Pritchard and Heady make for a solid backcourt that fits the way Barbee is running his offense. They would really benefit from Vasko and Harding making sophomore year jumps. Barbee did a great job of adding length at every position and the defense should give them a solid floor. If the newcomers can add scoring at the rim and second chance scoring opportunities, even a mediocre MAC offense could be good enough to have them in the top half of the league. That said, this is very likely a Quadrant 4 opponent when it comes to Marquette's final team sheet.

Marquette Connection

This game will be a reunion for two coaches whose history began with a piece of Marquette's past. Current Marquette assistant coach Neill Berry got his coaching start thanks to former Marquette assistant coach Darrin Horn, who was an assistant on the 2003 Final Four team before taking his first head coaching job at Western Kentucky. Berry joined his staff in 2005, then was promoted to a full-time assistant in 2007. That same year, Horn hired Scott Cherry off the George Mason staff. Together, Horn, Berry, and Cherry helped guide Western Kentucky to the 2008 Sweet 16, knocking off Drake and San Diego before falling to UCLA. Horn took the South Carolina job and brought Berry and Cherry with him. After a 21-10 season ended in the NIT, Cherry departed for the High Point head coaching job. Fifteen years later, this game will bring Marquette assistant Neill Berry and Central Michigan assistant Scott Cherry back together.

George Mason Preview, 2024-25

George Mason Patriots

November 8th, 2024 at Al McGuire Center

Head Coach: Tony Skinn (20-12)

Three-Year NET Average: 115.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 118.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 85

Darius Maddox found his fit at GMU

Photo from George Mason Athletics

State of the Program

Tony Skinn came in as George Mason's third coach in four years after Dave Paulsen was fired in 2021 and Kim English left for Providence in 2023. In his first year, he posted a better winning percentage than either of his two predecessors and the best final kenpom ranking since Jim Larranaga was at GMU in 2011. He did that by hitting the portal hard, most notably landing Keyshawn Hall from UNLV, Darius Maddox from Virginia Tech, and Woody Newton from Oklahoma State. The Patriots were a veritable all-Marco Polo team, but got off to a strong start at 11-2 in non-conference play before going streaking in A-10 play. Every time GMU won or lost a game, it was part of a 2 or 3 game winning or losing streak until the A-10 Tournament. Unfortunately for Skinn, four of his top five scorers transferred out in the offseason.

Rotation

Auburn transfer K.D. Johnson is a diminutive ballhawk nicknamed "Nightmare Fuel" because of his endless energy. He's a downhill attacking guard but will have to prove he can be a playmaker as he's generally played off the ball. His backcourt partner Jared Billups was the defensive specialist for GMU last year and while he's a bit player on offense, he does excel at crashing the offensive glass. The other returning starter is Darius Maddox. He's a legitimate three level scorer who began his career at Virginia Tech and stood out as a high-level talent in the A-10. Zach Anderson is a transfer from Florida Gulf Coast. The fifth-year player is lethal from the arc and is a switchable defender with good length and athleticism. In the middle they will count on Jalen Haynes, who last played in 2022-23 at ETSU. He's a defensive monster as the Pirates allowed 15.1 points fewer per 100 possessions with him on the floor per hoop-explorer. GMU has a deep bench, with returning rotation forward Woody Newton being joined by transfers Jeremiah Quigley (5'11" So from Iona), Giovanni Emejuru (6'11" RS Jr from Siena), and Brayden O'Connor (6'4" Jr from UMass-Lowell), all of whom were starters at their previous stops.

Style of Play

Offensively, Skinn preaches playing with freedom and tempo, but last year on the court they ranked #344 in pace of play, grinding possessions on both ends of the court. That said, plenty of coaches promise up-tempo play before slowing it down when results are on the line. The Patriots' primary focus is driving the ball inside and either finishing at the rim or kicking it out for a three. 48% of their scoring plays came from either rim attack or drive and kick. They also love to run pick and pop, ranking in the 90th percentile, and that will likely still feature prominently with Anderson and Maddox on the wing. The biggest question will be how Johnson handles being on the ball. He is a downhill attacker, but hasn't shown himself to be the natural distributor that Quigley is. Early in the year, Johnson will likely get first crack, but don't be surprised if Quigley earns significant minutes and possibly pushes him off the ball. The Iona transfer is a crafty scorer who fits Skinn's offensive goals perfectly.

Defensively, this team is going to apply pressure that starts with the point guard. Johnson is an ideal fit for that role. Billups, Maddox, and Anderson give them plenty of perimeter length. It's not a surprise as he was an assistant to Eric Konkol and Kevin Willard, both of whom had defenses that were at their best when they were turning teams over. GMU also does very well shutting teams down inside, both protecting the rim and forcing teams into midrange shots. They will hope to get better chasing teams off the line, as that's one place GMU can be exploited (opponents got 36.5% of points on threes, 22nd nationally).

2024-25 Outlook

Skinn's first year was an unquestioned success. He achieved that largely by securing talented down-transfers. Johnson fits that role, though his erratic tendencies at Auburn were well-documented. The rest of their transfer class this year is transferring up, though all of them were starters at their previous schools. Their schedule is favorable. While they travel to Marquette and Duke, T-Rank has them favored in all of their other non-conference games. The Atlantic 10 has five teams projected in the top-100 and GMU only plays the other four one time each. All of their repeat opponents are sub-120 and in the bottom half of the league projections, giving them the easiest projected A-10 conference schedule. This team won't be the favorite in the league, but if this team comes together as well as Skinn's first one did, don't be surprised to see them in the mix for the A-10 title and they also get to play the A-10 Tournament in Washington, D.C. where they'll have a strong fan contingent just 20 miles from their campus.

Marquette Connection

How much history can there be for two teams that have never played each other? While there isn't much on the court, there is a player the teams have in common. Tyler Kolek, have you ever heard of him? Before becoming a two-time All-American and Big East Player of the Year at Marquette, TKO was the A-10 Rookie of the Year for the Patriots. There were many flashes of the player he would become in that freshman season. In the video below, Kolek shows off the crafty left-handed moves that he would perfect as he developed, the vision that allowed him to make fast-break heaves, find cross court shooters, and one-handed laser beams, as well as the shooting touch that consistently improved at Marquette.