Dayton Preview, 2024-25

Dayton Flyers

December 14th, 2024 at UD Arena

Head Coach: Anthony Grant (342-182 overall, 149-72 at Dayton)

Three-Year NET Average: 51.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 52.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 70

Dayton's Enoch Cheeks scrambles for a loose ball
 Photo from daytonflyers.com

State of the Program

You've probably heard it before, but COVID shutting down the 2020 NCAA Tournament had a negative impact on Dayton more than anyone else. They were 29-2 with both losses in overtime to projected single-digit seeds, were a lock for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and one of the favorites to cut nets behind National Player of the Year Obi Toppin. Sure, teams like Kansas, Gonzaga, and Baylor also lost opportunities that year, but those programs are all perennial Final Four contenders who have been there in the years since. That's not the case for Dayton, who last went to the Final Four in 1967 and only has one second weekend trip in the last 40 years.

While Anthony Grant hasn't brought them back to that level of success, the Flyers have won 20+ games in five of the last six seasons, with the only exception being COVID-shortened 2021. They also finished in the top-3 of the Atlantic 10 in each of those five seasons. Grant has built a program that is perennially at the top of their league and competing for an NCAA bid, even if they've landed in the NIT more often than not. Last year was their best since 2020, led by DaRon Holmes, who was a second team All-American, earning both the A-10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. In addition to Holmes as a dominant two-way force, Dayton had a plethora of shooters that ranked #3 in the nation from beyond the arc. The Flyers notched high-major wins over LSU, St. John's, and Cincinnati, building an at-large resume in the process. They also earned their first NCAA win since 2015 in shocking style, rallying from a 17-point deficit with 7:14 to play to steal a 63-60 result from Nevada. The downside to that success was the departure of Holmes to the NBA while sharpshooters Kobe Elvis and Koby Brea transferred to high-major programs in the offseason.

Rotation

The strength of the Flyers starts in the backcourt. Malachi Smith was injured in the season-opener but they're hoping he's finally healthy. He's a capable scorer but is better as a distributor. Smith is joined by Posh Alexander, who comes over from Butler. Alexander is inconsistent offensively, but is one of the premier ballhawks in the nation. He applies tremendous on-ball defensive pressure and is routinely elite at forcing turnovers. Enoch Cheeks rounds out Dayton's three-man backcourt. He started all 33 games for Dayton last year and does a little bit of everything, but isn't really elite at anything. Nate Santos is the leading returning scorer and also started every game last year. His contributions were a bit of a surprise as he wasn't a leading figure or elite shooter at Pitt, but elevated his game in every way at Dayton. Zed Key will be charged with replacing Holmes. He was a four-year rotation player at Ohio State where he was an effective rebounder and rim protector. They'll need him to move up his contributions to featured player if he's going to adequately replace Holmes. The bench looks solid, starting with Javon Bennett. He started 28 games last year as he shared point guard duties with Kobe Elvis, but it's hard to envision him holding on to a starting spot with Smith back and Alexander joining the fold. Having three players 6-feet and shorter would be a nightmare defensively, even in the A-10. I still expect him to get heavy minutes as they likely cycle through their three point guards. Marvel Allen is a talented redshirt freshman who rescinded his commitment to Georgetown and Patrick Ewing before joining Dayton. Jacob Conner is the most likely big off the bench, but Dayton also boasts Hamid Mousa and Amael L'Etang, a pair of big bodies from overseas with little experience but lots of upside.

Style of Play 

Grant likes to run a continuity ball screen offense. They play deep into the shot clock, with the players and ball constantly moving. They ran heavy drive and kick actions last year and were in the 100th percentile in efficiency on those plays, but losing three of their top four shooters from deep may change the style a bit. What this team has in spades is high-quality passers. Expect a patient offense with lots of movement off the ball to create open looks and defensive confusion. Zed Key and Nate Santos are both excellent finishers at the rim, so when they aren't looking for open threes expect both of them to be fighting to either screen and roll or cut backdoor to get easy opportunities inside. How well they shoot will likely determine how good their offense is. Grant has three top-30 offenses in his coaching career, and all of those were accompanied by top-30 three-point shooting teams.

The Flyer defense excelled at forcing teams into midrange looks

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defensively, Dayton will make you work for every look. They run a man defense that excels at taking away attempts at the rim and forcing teams into midrange and three-point jumpers (see chart above). Dayton is one of the best at defending without fouling, but still attacks closeouts aggressively. While it's true that teams are more efficient in the midrange against Dayton, that's relative to the rest of the country. Dayton forces you to midrange where they allow teams to convert on 38.6% of their shots, which is poor nationally (#257) but far better than allowing attempts inside where teams hit 58.4% against them. The Flyers know which looks are low percentage and let teams take those looks early and often. If they get into foul trouble, which is rare, Grant will break out a zone, but it's a break glass in case of emergency situation.

2024-25 Outlook

Dayton fans have to be salivating at their non-conference schedule opportunities. They open the Maui Invitational, where they were runners-up in 2019, with North Carolina, and follow that with a likely top-10 matchup against Auburn or Iowa State. They have Cincinnati on a neutral court as well. At home, they host Northwestern, UNLV, and their on-paper biggest home non-con game since 2007 (Pittsburgh) in Marquette. Dayton fans have long desired a Big East invitation (except for this guy) and will view a home-and-home opportunity as their chance to audition for that ticket. A packed UD Arena will be one of the most hostile venues Marquette travels to this year, and with Hilton Coliseum and the AMP on the schedule, that's saying something. If Dayton can manage to get 3-4 wins from Maui, Cincy, Northwestern, UNLV, and Marquette, that should be enough to have them in the at-large conversation. They get A-10 round robins with VCU, St. Louis, and Loyola, all of which should be good resume builders. Come March, this will likely be a team on the bubble with their tourney resume hinging on how well they do in non-con play.

This team feels like they have a low floor and very high ceiling based on a series of ifs. If guys like Alexander and Key can come in and be A-10 stars, if Malachi Smith can stay healthy, if Marvel Allen can turn his high-upside talent into on-court production, then this Dayton team can be an A-10 and at-large bid contender. But if Posh tries to take over games, if Key is better suited as a role-player, if Smith gets injured again, and if there aren't answers on the bench to address those questions, things could go very bad for Dayton. This should be a Q1 road opportunity, but without an All-American like Toppin or Holmes, there's the possibility things go very wrong.

Marquette Connection

Shaka Smart began his head coaching career at VCU, where he replaced now-Dayton head coach Anthony Grant. Those two men are responsible for the resurgence of VCU basketball. Grant's 2007 team earned VCU's first tourney win in over 20 years, while Smart's 2011 Final Four team followed by NCAA wins in 2012 and 2013 helped spur the most succesful run in program history, earning 12 NCAA bids in a 17-year span. While they never coached on the same staff, both Grant and Smart were assistants to Billy Donovan at Florida when they took the VCU job. The two also have faced off twice in the past, as Grant's Alabama program agreed to a home-and-home with VCU in 2011 and 2012. The teams split the results, with Grant beating Smart 72-64 in Tuscaloosa in 2011 while Smart got revenge in Richmond the next year with a 73-54 victory.