George Mason Preview, 2024-25

George Mason Patriots

November 8th, 2024 at Al McGuire Center

Head Coach: Tony Skinn (20-12)

Three-Year NET Average: 115.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 118.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 85

Darius Maddox found his fit at GMU

Photo from George Mason Athletics

State of the Program

Tony Skinn came in as George Mason's third coach in four years after Dave Paulsen was fired in 2021 and Kim English left for Providence in 2023. In his first year, he posted a better winning percentage than either of his two predecessors and the best final kenpom ranking since Jim Larranaga was at GMU in 2011. He did that by hitting the portal hard, most notably landing Keyshawn Hall from UNLV, Darius Maddox from Virginia Tech, and Woody Newton from Oklahoma State. The Patriots were a veritable all-Marco Polo team, but got off to a strong start at 11-2 in non-conference play before going streaking in A-10 play. Every time GMU won or lost a game, it was part of a 2 or 3 game winning or losing streak until the A-10 Tournament. Unfortunately for Skinn, four of his top five scorers transferred out in the offseason.

Rotation

Auburn transfer K.D. Johnson is a diminutive ballhawk nicknamed "Nightmare Fuel" because of his endless energy. He's a downhill attacking guard but will have to prove he can be a playmaker as he's generally played off the ball. His backcourt partner Jared Billups was the defensive specialist for GMU last year and while he's a bit player on offense, he does excel at crashing the offensive glass. The other returning starter is Darius Maddox. He's a legitimate three level scorer who began his career at Virginia Tech and stood out as a high-level talent in the A-10. Zach Anderson is a transfer from Florida Gulf Coast. The fifth-year player is lethal from the arc and is a switchable defender with good length and athleticism. In the middle they will count on Jalen Haynes, who last played in 2022-23 at ETSU. He's a defensive monster as the Pirates allowed 15.1 points fewer per 100 possessions with him on the floor per hoop-explorer. GMU has a deep bench, with returning rotation forward Woody Newton being joined by transfers Jeremiah Quigley (5'11" So from Iona), Giovanni Emejuru (6'11" RS Jr from Siena), and Brayden O'Connor (6'4" Jr from UMass-Lowell), all of whom were starters at their previous stops.

Style of Play

Offensively, Skinn preaches playing with freedom and tempo, but last year on the court they ranked #344 in pace of play, grinding possessions on both ends of the court. That said, plenty of coaches promise up-tempo play before slowing it down when results are on the line. The Patriots' primary focus is driving the ball inside and either finishing at the rim or kicking it out for a three. 48% of their scoring plays came from either rim attack or drive and kick. They also love to run pick and pop, ranking in the 90th percentile, and that will likely still feature prominently with Anderson and Maddox on the wing. The biggest question will be how Johnson handles being on the ball. He is a downhill attacker, but hasn't shown himself to be the natural distributor that Quigley is. Early in the year, Johnson will likely get first crack, but don't be surprised if Quigley earns significant minutes and possibly pushes him off the ball. The Iona transfer is a crafty scorer who fits Skinn's offensive goals perfectly.

Defensively, this team is going to apply pressure that starts with the point guard. Johnson is an ideal fit for that role. Billups, Maddox, and Anderson give them plenty of perimeter length. It's not a surprise as he was an assistant to Eric Konkol and Kevin Willard, both of whom had defenses that were at their best when they were turning teams over. GMU also does very well shutting teams down inside, both protecting the rim and forcing teams into midrange shots. They will hope to get better chasing teams off the line, as that's one place GMU can be exploited (opponents got 36.5% of points on threes, 22nd nationally).

2024-25 Outlook

Skinn's first year was an unquestioned success. He achieved that largely by securing talented down-transfers. Johnson fits that role, though his erratic tendencies at Auburn were well-documented. The rest of their transfer class this year is transferring up, though all of them were starters at their previous schools. Their schedule is favorable. While they travel to Marquette and Duke, T-Rank has them favored in all of their other non-conference games. The Atlantic 10 has five teams projected in the top-100 and GMU only plays the other four one time each. All of their repeat opponents are sub-120 and in the bottom half of the league projections, giving them the easiest projected A-10 conference schedule. This team won't be the favorite in the league, but if this team comes together as well as Skinn's first one did, don't be surprised to see them in the mix for the A-10 title and they also get to play the A-10 Tournament in Washington, D.C. where they'll have a strong fan contingent just 20 miles from their campus.

Marquette Connection

How much history can there be for two teams that have never played each other? While there isn't much on the court, there is a player the teams have in common. Tyler Kolek, have you ever heard of him? Before becoming a two-time All-American and Big East Player of the Year at Marquette, TKO was the A-10 Rookie of the Year for the Patriots. There were many flashes of the player he would become in that freshman season. In the video below, Kolek shows off the crafty left-handed moves that he would perfect as he developed, the vision that allowed him to make fast-break heaves, find cross court shooters, and one-handed laser beams, as well as the shooting touch that consistently improved at Marquette.