Iowa State Cyclones
December 4th, 2024 at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA
Head Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (169-98 overall, 70-35 at Iowa State)
Three-Year NET Average: 22.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.7
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 3
Photo by Amy Kontras | USA Today Sports
State of the Program
There were questions about how good Iowa State really was early in the season. Their 11-2 non-conference record looked good, but they lost to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M in the Orlando Invitational, not exactly juggernaut teams, and their gaudy record was boosted up by playing eight buy games with an average winning margin of 39.8 points. They proved their mettle as the season went on. Their 13-5 Big 12 record was good for second in the toughest conference in the country. They followed that with a Big 12 Tournament Championship, then beat South Dakota State and Washington State to reach the Sweet 16, where they lost to Illinois 72-69. T.J. Otzelberger seems to have found the perfect program fit for his coaching style, as his three seasons in Ames have yielded a 70-35 record, three NCAA appearances, two Sweet 16s, and he has outperformed his kenpom projection each year while improving his team's NCAA seed from 11 to 6 to 2. This year, the Cyclones are widely regarded as a top-10 team once again while being a legitimate Final Four and even National Championship threat.
Rotation
The backcourt is the strength of this team. Tamin Lipsey is a legitimate All-American candidate and one of the best point guards in the country. Offensively, he's an excellent creator and reliable shooter, but his biggest strength is on defense at the point of attack, where he's one of the nation's best ballhawks. No returning player in the country had more kenpom game MVPs than Lipsey with 15. His backcourt partner is another defensive difference maker. Keshon Gilbert was originally recruited by Otzelberger to UNLV but joined him in Ames last year. He is a capable scorer who excels at getting downhill and scoring at the rim. Similar to Lipsey, he is a stout defensive presence that can generate turnovers. Milan Momcilovic is fairly one-dimensional as a shooter. Despite his size he struggles to get to the paint and is far more likely to settle for midrange or take spot-up threes. Up front, Joshua Jefferson is a transfer from St. Mary's who seems to fit TJO's system perfectly. While he can contribute offensively, where he really stands out is on defense. St. Mary's was 10.8 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor, he's an elite rebounder on both ends, and like Lipsey and Gilbert excels at forcing turnovers. Dishon Jackson is another transfer from Charlotte who will provide a post-up threat inside and rim protection on the defensive end. Their bench is deep and experienced. Curtis Jones is yet another exceptional ball thief and competent offensive contributor that gives little dropoff when Lipsey or Gilbert need a rest. Demarion Watson and Seattle transfer Brandton Chatfield provide size and defensive versatility up front while both are also solid on the offensive glass.
Style of Play
While TJO has a variety of players that have shown the ability to score, there are no go-to scorers on this roster. Last year's Iowa State team was #52 in offensive efficiency, which is his best mark with the Cyclones, but still nothing overly impressive. Their best offense comes in transition, which is keyed by ranking #2 in steal rate each of the past two seasons. However they bog down in the half-court. They aren't great at driving and settle too easily for midrange shots (10th in midrange rate). They did seem to make a concerted effort to add offensive rebounding in the transfer portal, so expect this team to hit the glass harder next year as they saw first hand (Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois) how much it can help teams that are shooting-challenged.
Chart courtesy of cbbanalytics.com
Iowa State had the #1 defense in the nation last year. The Cyclone defense is predicated first on turning teams over. They start with active hands and relentless ball pressure. They aim to force opponents to difficult spots on the floor and push them into two-man defensive sets. They try to create effectively a triangle defense that allows two players to close out on shots. While Iowa State stresses putting ball pressure on early, in the half-court they want to create space on defense between the offensive player and the defender. The larger the gap between the defender and the offensive player, the harder it is to drive and the more difficult it is to pass because they have that much more time to get a hand on the ball. The theory is simply that the more space the defender creates, the harder it is for the offensive player to play their game. Otzelberger also preaches taking big steps. His players are drilled to only move toward the offensive player when they are closing out on a shot and are strategic in covering as much ground as quickly as possible. The downside to this is the defensive three-point rate. ISU has ranked sub-350 in three-point rate allowed the past two seasons. The aggressive closeouts and pursuit of turnovers also lead to many free throws. As good as the defense is, the aggressiveness can be exploited.
2024-25 Outlook
ISU is playing a tougher non-con this year, though still have 6 buy games on the schedule. In addition to Marquette, they have Iowa on the road and travel to Maui where they'll open with a top-10 matchup against Auburn, followed by UNC/Dayton, with UConn and Michigan State on the other side of the bracket. Their Big 12 schedule will be tough, with double-dips against Kansas and Arizona. The Cyclone defense gives them a very high floor, but how far they go will likely be determined by the offense. The highest percentage of shots they took were from midrange, which is the least efficient place on the floor to shoot from, while ranking sub-300 in frequency of shots taken both from three and at the rim. I don't expect significant shot selection improvement, but they have good enough shooters that modest improvement in 3PFG% and rate could lead to a significant improvement, while having stronger offensive rebounders could help clean up all the bricks their midrange shooters leave on the court. If this offense is in the 40-60 range again, their ceiling is probably a high seed but a second weekend flameout because at some point you have to score. But if they can tick up to a top-25 offense, this could be a Final Four team.
Marquette Connection
It feels like Marquette fans have referred to Ames as Marquette South for years. So many Marquette players have transferred to Iowa State that I decided to try to make a starting five of Marquette Cyclones. Let's see the roster!
PG - Scott Christopherson: He's the one that started it. Recruited by Crean, Buzz Williams ran him off and he went on to score over 1,000 points for the Cyclones.
SG - Mackenzie Hare: It isn't just the men that have transferred to Iowa State. Hare led the Big East in 3PFG%, then entered the portal this offseason right before coach Megan Duffy left for Virginia Tech.
SF - Marial Shayok: Okay, he never actually played for Marquette, but Shayok was a Marquette commit who followed Buzz to Virginia Tech, then transferred to ISU.
PF - Deonte Burton: Perhaps the one that hurts the most, Burton was an explosive freak athlete who was a cornerstone of the 2013 recruiting class, but decided to leave Milwaukee after his mother died. He averaged 15.1 ppg/6.2 rpg as a senior.
C - Jameel McKay: The JUCO transfer made it to campus but transferred before his first year at Marquette started, in part because he didn't want to play center. At Iowa State, he averaged 11.1 ppg/8.3 rpg over two years...playing center.
Bench - Nick Noskowiak: A blast from the past name, the Buzz recruit was released from his National Letter of Intent after Wojo took over. He committed to Iowa State and enrolled, but stepped away from the program before ever suiting up with multiple felony charges hanging over his head. Here's hoping he turned things around after those rough years.
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