Maryland Preview, 2024-25

Maryland Terrapins

November 15th, 2024 at Xfinity Center, College Park, MD

Head Coach: Kevin Willard (308-240 overall, 38-30 at Maryland)

Three-Year NET Average: 67.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 56.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 42

Maryland's Julian Reese is a linchpin on both ends of the court
Photo from umterps.com

State of the Program

Expectations were high for the Terrapins as they returned three starters from an NCAA team while adding a top-20 recruiting class and experience through the transfer portal. It only took four games for the season to go wrong as they stumbled to a 1-3 start, dropping close contests to Davidson and UAB before getting blown out at Villanova. While returning stars Jahmir Young, Donta Scott, and Julian Reese all proved to be reliable, high-efficiency contributors, none of the freshman could say the same and none of the transfers proved to be difference makers. Perhaps the biggest problem was a focus on three-point shooting. The Terps took 37.5% of their shots from three but only got 26.5% of their points came beyond the arc. As a team they shot 28.9% from deep which was largely a product of the newcomers to the rotation shooting a combined 58/264 (22.0%) beyond the arc. They ranked #347 in three-point efficiency which when coupled with a relatively high usage attempt at the arc and not much better two-point efficiency (48.8% was 247th nationally) led to an anemic offense. The defense was a different story. Maryland's shot-blocking tandem of Reese and Jordan Geronimo protected the paint while length and athleticism all over the court led to the 14th ranked defense per kenpom. That D kept them in games, but it didn't win them games as Maryland was 2-10 in games decided by 5 points or fewer or in overtime. Ultimately, the slow start coupled with never being able to string together successes in Big 10 play led to Kevin Willard's first losing season in over a decade as Maryland went 16-17 (7-13). Young and Scott are gone, but Reese returns to lead what should be another suffocating defense with more question marks on offense.

Rotation

The first priority for Willard was adding shooting, and that starts with Belmont transfer Ja'Kobi Gillespie. At 6'1", Gillespie was the only player his height or shorter to rank in the top-100 nationally in 2PFG% (39th) and he was also effective from deep, shooting 39.0% beyond the arc. He was remarkably consistent, with only three games below 100 ORtg and none below 95, while maintaining his efficiency levels against Tier A&B competition. He's joined by South Florida transfer Selton Miguel in the back court, who wasn't as consistent but was equally effective from deep and showed microwave capability, such as his 25 point outburst in USF's win over Florida Atlantic that basically clinched the AAC title. DeShawn Harris-Smith was last year's prominent recruit, and while he didn't do anything particularly well in the box score, Maryland was 7.3 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor. Reese is the star of this team, having posted 15 double-doubles. He's at his best when he can patrol the paint and serve as a lob threat and glass cleaner. Those tasks should be made easier by the addition of top-15 recruit Derik Queen, nicknamed "Black Baby Jokic." The big man was MVP of the McDonald's All American game and is highly regarded for his crafty footwork and high-level passing. In addition, his presence on the defensive end gives Willard another rim protector. Off the bench, Willard has an experienced group that should be able to give minutes without too much dropoff, headlined by a pair of fifth year guys in Jahari Long and Jordan Geronimo that can be effective role-players and another shot-blocker in Georgia Tech transfer Tafara Gapare. If they can get any contributions from transfers Rodney Rice (Va Tech) or Chance Stephens (LMU), both of whom are better offensive options than the shooters that transferred out, the offense could take a step forward.

Style of Play

Marquette fans should be familiar with how Willard wants to play. On offense, he likes to spread the floor with multiple shooters while putting a monster in the middle at the dunker spot to serve as a lob and putback threat, though last year's dearth of shooting made that difficult. Typically, he prefers going with multiple ball-handlers (Carrington/Whitehead, McKnight/Powell, Richmond/Aiken) to spread teams out. Gillespie and Miguel in theory could be dual ball-handlers, but haven't had to do it at the Big 10 level. The inability to shoot last year allowed teams to clog the paint and take away the interior as well, as the shot chart below demonstrates. The new guards can shoot, but they are the only two projected starters that can as Harris-Smith is miserable from deep (20.2 3PG%) and neither Reese nor Queen are expected to be able to step out. When Willard tries go to twin towers, will that lead to savvy big-to-big passing or a clogged lane and turnovers as they try to establish a freshman big man?

Maryland was woeful on offense, particularly from three

Shot chart from CBBAnalytics.com

 

Defense should be where this team stands out. This team excels at chasing opponents off the three point line, pressuring at the perimeter, and blocking shots. Gillespie understands his defensive role well and they have length and athleticism at every position. Expect an energetic, active defense and the big rotation of Reese, Queen, and Gapare provide stout rim protection while Jordan Geronimo has the ability to be a help side shot blocker. Their top defensive lineup should be among the best defensive groups in the country.

2024-25 Outlook

Maryland certainly has some serious talent on their roster. They likely have at least one future NBA player in Queen. The real question is going to be how Willard juggles his lineups. If they want to spread the floor with shooters like Long, Rice, and Stephens, they lose length and get significantly worse defensively. If they stay big with their best athletes, they could struggle to score with few reliable shooters and a clogged lane. If all breaks right, this is a team with NCAA Tournament upside, but it will be a difficult road to get there because the schedule is thin on opportunity. Marquette is one of just three high-major opponents on their non-conference schedule, with neutral site games against Villanova and Syracuse being the others. In Big 10 play, they play the league's projected top-4 teams (Purdue, Illinois, Oregon, and Indiana) just once each, and all of those games are on the road. This feels like a team that could have a gaudy record come Selection Sunday but still be on the bubble simply because the wins they get might not be the wins they need to get into the field.

As far as this matchup, Marquette's win over Illinois was their first true road win in November since 2003. Defensively, Marquette needs to turn up the pressure to test Maryland's ball handling and keep the ball out of the paint. While their shooting will likely be improved, the Terps settle for midrange and execute poorly there when they can't get it inside. Offensively, Maryland is going to smother the paint, so Marquette needs to move the ball for open shots and make the most of the perimeter opportunities they get. This will likely be a grinding game as Maryland doesn't want to get into a high-tempo shootout with Marquette so don't be surprised if this isn't the most aesthetically pleasing affair.

Marquette Connection

In four years at Maryland, Darryl Morsell amassed 1,090 points, 510 rebounds, and 271 assists while being named the 2021 Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year. The moment most Marquette fans remember from his time at Maryland was when he shut down Markus Howard in the 2019 Orlando Invitational Championship Game. That was all forgiven when Morsell transferred to Marquette for Shaka Smart's first season in Milwaukee. The Maryland transfer got off to a white hot start, scoring 20+ points in each of his first four games, a feat he hadn't accomplished in his entire career at Maryland. Perhaps no game stood out more than his career high 26-point performance in a 73-72 win against Seton Hall at home. Morsell was brilliant, going 8/12 from the field (including 4/5 on threes), 6/6 from the line, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and a crucial late game block. And who was the coach that Morsell got the best of in that dominant performance for Marquette? None other than current Maryland coach Kevin Willard.