Purdue Preview, 2024-25

Purdue Boilermakers

November 19th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Matt Painter (472-208 overall, 447-203 at Purdue)

Three-Year NET Average: 6.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 16

Braden Smith has averaged 19.0 ppg in two wins over Marquette
Photo from Sports Illustrated

State of the Program

There was a time when Matt Painter had back-to-back losing seasons and seemed headed for a third in late 2015 after an 8-5 non-con slate including two buy game losses. Instead, his team rallied to a 12-6 Big 10 record and made the NCAA Tournament, the first of nine straight appearances. The Boilermakers have also finished in the top-25 of kenpom for nine straight years and last year made the Final Four for the first time since 1980, falling in the Championship Game to UConn. The obvious change is that two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey is gone. It's hard to convey the gravity Edey drew on the court, but we'll try. He was top-10 in the nation in usage, led the country in fouls drawn, and in the event he did miss a shot (62.4 2PFG%) he led the country in offensive rebounds per game. Purdue was 24.5 points/100 possessions better on offense 7.5/100 better on defense with him on the floor. The simple math means that Edey meant Purdue was 32.0 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor than off. His impact stretched beyond himself, because while teams doubled him virtually every time he touched the ball, Purdue's 40.4 3PFG% was second in the country, meaning as soon as you double Edey, there's a lights out shooter open at the arc. This team will be different without him, but they do return three starters and have a number of bench options eager to step up to starring roles. Painter has established himself as one of the elite coaches in the sport and Purdue has the look of a perennial top-20 program going forward.

Rotation

Purdue still has an All-American candidate, and it's point guard Braden Smith. There were questions as to how tough he was after fading at the end of his freshman year, but he quieted those questions with a stellar statline, earning first-team All-Big 10. The departure of Edey may impact him the most as his assist rate was heavily predicated on feeding the monster in the post. Fletcher Loyer is a mercurial guard alongside Smith. Despite his size, he doesn't play with physicality and isn't a defensive stalwart. At times he will disappear in big games (0 points on 0/5 shooting in the title game) but he's also capable of bursting out (27 points against both Tennessee and Arizona last year). Myles Colvin is one of the most athletic Boilermakers. He saw his minutes tick up late in the season and seemed to earn some trust from Painter. Camden Heide looks the part of a breakout player. He has the athleticism, shooting, and length to be a plus contributor, but needs to be more consistent. On a team where monsters roam the middle, Trey Kaufman-Renn will look small in the middle. He did start every game last year as a forward, but will need to show he can protect the paint and the rim. He is good on the offensive glass, and with four guys who shot over 40% from deep around him, there should be space down low for him to operate.

While the starting lineup looks solid, there are questions of how deep this team will go. Gicarri Harris is the son of Purdue legend Glenn Robinson and is the most likely first guard off the bench. If he isn't ready on the defensive end, they may use Colvin to help with ball handling and go big up front. Caleb Furst was a part of the rotation, but his minutes declined as the season went on. Will Berg is 7'2" and freshman big Daniel Jacobson is 7'4", giving Painter guys with frames that meet the Edey, Haarms, Haas molds. Whether they'll be ready this year remains to be seen, though that may apply to the entire bench. Purdue had one of the best starting lineups in the country last year, but they logged heavy minutes. Everyone who averaged 10+ mpg is either starting on this year's team or departed. Furst is the only returning bench player who averaged more than 5 mpg, and #75 Harris is the only freshman out of five ranked in the top-100 per 247.

Style of Play

Painter has shown himself to be somewhat of a chameleon when it comes to his offense. He does very well at adjusting to personnel. For years his teams focused on back to the basket play because he had monsters down low like Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas. When Carsen Edwards emerged, his teams became very three-heavy. The past three years Purdue has prized ball movement, working to get the ball in to Edey so he could either score inside (usually drawing a foul in the process) or swing it back to the perimeter when the defense collapsed on him. Either way, misses were vacuumed up by Edey, TKR, and Furst, all of whom are excellent offensive rebounders. It's safe to assume Purdue will have to adjust without the titanic force of Edey down low. Expect a bit of a return to the three-heavy style of play. This team has the ability to put four shooters at the arc and hit from anywhere. TKR and Furst both have some ability to hit from deep as well, so this team will be able to play five out at times. Expect this team to slow the pace as well. They won't be as athletic as some of their opponents, so deliberate play that works deep into the shot clock and ends with a rip your heart out three suits Purdue very well.

Defensively, the expectation is that Purdue is going to stick to a rigid man defense. While Matt Painter won't call it zone, they did add some wrinkles to last year's defense. There's a heavy focus on keeping the ball out of the paint. They'll work to cut off drivers and passing lanes inside. Against a dynamic guard like Boo Buie of Northwestern, they spent portions of possessions in what looked like a man-zone hybrid, most similar to a 1-2-2. They kept Edey down low to protect the rim and dominate the glass, but had two layers of two defenders playing with arms spread as big as possible to force the ball out of Buie's hands and limit the Wildcats ability to get the ball inside. Don't be surprised to see a similar wrinkle for Kam Jones, who in two games against Purdue has scored 36 points on 59.3 eFG% with 10 assists as well, and will be even more of a focal point this year.

2024-25 Preview

The general consensus seems to be that Purdue will again be a favorite in the Big 10. That said, it's a league with zero teams in the T-Rank projected top-15. It's hard not to project a big step back for a team losing a player as colossally important as Edey was to Purdue, but there are still reasons to expect a solid season. Three starters return from a team that was runner-up for the national title. While they didn't bring in any significant transfers, the bulk of their rotation will be players that are established in the system and they have a top-20 recruiting class to add depth. The optimistic case for Purdue is an experienced team led by an All-American point guard with shooting all over the court that can again compete for a Final Four. The pessimistic case is that Smith's efficiency was buoyed by Edey and they simply won't be able to recreate his impact, finding themselves closer to a double-digit seed than a protected one. Purdue will be a tough early test for Marquette. Their slow pace and shooting will allow the Boilermakers to hang with anyone provided the shots are falling. While there's no Edey, they have no shortage of candidates to make an impact in the middle and every starting center at Purdue the last 10 years has been at worst an All-Big Ten honorable mention (7/10 have been first or second team all-league). To beat Purdue, Marquette will need to dictate pace with deflections and turnovers, limit second chance kick-outs, and unlike last year, make their shots beyond the arc.

Marquette Connection

In recent years, Marquette and Purdue have built a little bit of a rivalry, even though Marquette has only one win in the all-time series. This year will be the third game between the programs in three years (with another in 2025-26), and last year's contest came with the highest stakes since Purdue beat Marquette in overtime in the 1969 NCAA Tournament. The teams met in the Maui Invitational Championship Game with not just the Maui title but the #1 ranking on the line. The first half was closely contested until a 10-0 Purdue run. They kept Marquette at arm's length, then Lance Jones hit a 75-foot three pointer at the buzzer to push the halftime lead to 45-33. Marquette rallied and got as close as a 1-point deficit in the final minute, but ultimately Purdue held on to win Maui. Maybe it was the Jones three. Maybe it was Oso picking up two fouls in the first six minutes that limited him to 26 minutes, the only time he played fewer than 30 minutes in a game that wasn't a blowout win. Maybe it was Purdue's three-point fortune as that game was the only time a team shot over 40% from deep on the stiff Honolulu rims. Regardless, it was an instant classic that will be revisited this year and next with this home-and-home series.

Zach Edey took home all the hardware in paradise

Photo from Purdue Rivals