Stonehill Skyhawks
November 27th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum
Head Coach: Chris Kraus (148-143 overall, 18-44 in Division I)
Two-Year NET Average: 334.5
Two-Year kenpom Average: 345.0
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 342
Photo from Stonehill Athletics
State of the Program
Stonehill joined Division 1 two years ago with some modest success. They notched 4 non-conference wins, 3 against fellow D1 opponents, and followed that up with a respectable 10-6 NEC campaign, tied for the second best record in the league. Year two fell off massively. They went just 4-27 and finished last in the NEC, which was the worst league in D1. They ranked #359 according to kenpom out of 362 teams. The dismal season was backed up by their top three scorers departing, two to transfer. It looks like a stiff uphill climb already for Chris Kraus.
Rotation
Transfers forced Kraus to overhaul his backcourt. Amir Nesbitt comes over from Hampton and will likely get the first shot at the point. He's a solid distributor but struggled to get consistent minutes. Josh Morgan will be looking to recapture his sophomore year success. He had his peak in scoring, rebounds, assists, and efficiency that year but has seen his minutes and starting opportunities decline in the two years since. He's a better shooter than last year's numbers indicate, hitting 35.2% from deep for his career. Chas Stinson steps up from spot starter to bigger minutes. He was better as a defensive ballhawk than as an offensive player, but did have a 5-game stretch where he averaged 15.0 ppg/7.0 rpg, showing flashes of potential. Shane O'Dell only played in 5 games all season, but started all of them and Kraus will hope he comes close to matching his D2 numbers, where he did a bit of everything for St. Rose, posting 16.3 ppg/6.9 rpg/4.4 apg. Todd Brogna will need to play bigger this year. He's a solid rim protector and rebounder. The bench is anchored by Iona transfer Alex Bates as well as a pair of returning forwards. While Stonehill isn't big across the board, they do have some size off their bench and won't get smaller when they need to go to their reserves.
Style of Play
Offensively, Stonehill is a slower paced version of modern basketball philosophy. They attack the rim and take a ton of threes, while ranking 341st in attempts from the midrange. They get a lot of their perimeter shots from drive and kick or inside out action. When they attack inside, it either comes from the drive or from cutters flashing in from the perimeter. The problem is they simply weren't very good at any of that. As a team, they shot 30.1% from three (327th nationally) and at the rim shot 51.8% (345th). Just look at their shot chart, that's a lot of blue. Kraus will need internal development as well as his transfers to add shooting pop if they want to elevate their offense.
Whether inside or outside, Stonehill struggled to make shots
Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com
On the defensive end, the Skyhawks pressure for turnovers and try to keep teams off the line. The problem is their rebounding weaknesses and proclivity for turning the ball over on offense put them into a ridiculous number of transition defense situations. Teams got out in transition on 22.3% of possessions against Stonehill, which was 358th in the country. That's not good. In addition, Stonehill is too willing to get into three-point shooting contests, ranking 359th in defensive three-point attempt rate. When you take and miss a ton of threes on offense and allow opponents to take a ton (and make a ton) on defense, it's not a good combination, which is a big part of why they had 18 double-digit margins of defeat.
2024-25 Outlook
The optimistic case for Stonehill is that last year's roster just didn't fit. They had two guards who were necessary to make the offense go but were liabilities on defense. With them gone and the potential for improved shooting on a team that prioritizes the three, maybe they turn the page back to 2023. But the problem with that is their new back court is made up of what look to be castoffs from other sub-300 teams. None of the returners were very productive and none were difference makers on what was one of the worst teams in Division 1. Frankly, this team should be little more than a speed bump when they visit Milwaukee, and a team that turns it over a lot and lets opponents get out in transition probably looks at a defense like Marquette's as their worst nightmare. Maybe they figure it out by conference play, but this team has a long way to go and shouldn't pose much of a threat to Marquette.
Marquette Connection
This game will be a reunion of sorts for Tre Norman. In 2023, he was on a loaded Worcester Academy team with Virginia forward T.J. Power, Georgetown freshman Kayvaun Mulready, and Stonehill big man Todd Brogna. Together they led the Hilltoppers to a 29-5 record, making it to the semifinals of the National Prep Championship where they lost 65-62 to Sunrise Christian. This will be the first but not the last time this season that Norman takes on one of his old prep school teammates. He'll see Mulready when Marquette faces Georgetown in conference play as well.
Photo from Worcester Basketball Twitter | @WA_VBB
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