Connecticut Preview, 2024-25

Connecticut Huskies

February 1st, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / March 4th, 2024 at Gampel Pavilion

Head Coach: Dan Hurley (292-163 overall, 141-58 at UConn)

Three-Year NET Average: 9.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.0

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 12

Alex Karaban and UConn defeated Marquette three times in 2024
Photo by Mary Althaffer | AP Photo

State of the Program

In the past two seasons, UConn is 68-11, are the defending Big East Regular Season and Tournament Champions, and...oh yeah, the two-time defending National Champions, winning twelve consecutive NCAA games by double-digits. They've done that while retaining the same coaching staff, including Hurley who turned down the Los Angeles Lakers to pursue a third straight title. The Huskies are led by likely preseason All-American Alex Karaban, though they also bring back three additional rotation players that started at least one game last year: Solo Ball, Samson Johnson, and Hassan Diarra. The staff also added a pair of proven transfers in Aidan Mahaney from St. Mary's and Tarris Reed from Michigan, along with Liam McNeeley, a top-10 recruit expected to make an impact from day one. Suffice to say, the state of the program could not be stronger, even after seeing four players picked in the NBA Draft.

Rotation

Hassan Diarra is expected to get the first crack at running the offense, but replacing First Team All-American Tristen Newton is a big pair of shoes to fill. Diarra likely won't match Newton's raw production, but he is a capable shooter both from three and at the rim, can create shots for others, and is a solid defender. St. Mary's transfer Aidan Mahaney will likely be expected to help carry the scoring load. He's been at his best when spotting up from three but is poor at driving and finishing at the rim. That said, he's likely expected to replace Cam Spencer, who was similarly a spot-up shooter on offense at Rutgers and worse at the rim than Mahaney, but managed to transform his game under UConn's staff while channeling Dan Hurley's brash attitude on the court. Don't be surprised if Mahaney is the next UConn player opposing fanbases hate. Liam McNeeley is an exceptional shooter, but he's a projected first round NBA Draft pick because of his ability to attack off screens, his downhill drives, his passing, and the way he uses his basketball IQ to always make the right play. Karaban is the returning star and the epitome of the elite college wing. He takes over 90% of his shots from three (37.9 3PFG%) or at the rim (70.6 ATR%). The question is if he can maintain anything close to his sensational efficiency at what will almost certainly be a much higher usage rate. Samson Johnson was excellent in 2023-24, transitioning from barely used bench piece to rotation big and spot starter. He's an elite lob threat and rim protector, but was a pale comparison to lottery pick Donovan Clingan. UConn's bench has a pair of highly regarded sophomores with experience in Solo Ball and Jaylin Stewart, either of whom could challenge for Mahaney's projected starting spot, as well as Reed, who will likely platoon with Johnson. He's is an accomplished rebounder and provides similar rim protection. Keep a particular eye on Ball, he started in UConn's exhibition game and looks like a vastly improved player that could be more than just a bench piece. If additional depth is needed, freshmen Ahmad Nowell and Isaiah Abraham are top-100 prospects that could be immediate contributors.

Style of Play

 

UConn runs a deep and complex offensive playbook with more than 150 plays that focuses on a ton of complex off-the-ball movement. They get the bulk of their looks from three (40.2% of shots) or at the rim (43.6%) but don't get a high percentage of baskets directly off the drive (4th percentile in frequency of rim attacks). Instead, their drives are designed to set up their other actions. More often than not, they will kick out for a three, find a perimeter player cutting to the run, or a big in a pick and roll. They also love to get out in transition, attacking off the rebound or made basket, which is somewhat surprising given their sub-300 average offensive possession length. UConn's players are exceptionally well drilled and while they usually have a primary ball handler (Newton the past two years) they will typically have 2-3 players on the floor that can create for themselves and others. UConn is also a good offensive rebounding team, so even if you stop the first action they are good at resetting and attacking again.

 

The Huskies get to their spots and convert mercilessly

 Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

 

On defense, UConn is aggressive at chasing teams off the arc and forcing them to go inside. If you get to the rim, Hurley's teams have been top-25 in block rate each of the past 5 years, and that shouldn't change with Johnson and Reed patrolling the middle. They challenge every shot inside and out, leading to a top-5 defensive eFG% each of the past two years. Beyond the bigs, Karaban and Diarra are both excellent defenders that will anchor the system. While the defense doesn't get the attention the offense does, the Huskies are more than capable on that end as well.

2024-25 Outlook

 

On paper, it seems inevitable that UConn will take a step back. After all, they lost four players to the NBA, and how can anyone keep up the relentless onslaught they have through the past two NCAA Tournaments? The last team to go to three straight Final Fours was UCLA from 2006-08, and the last team to win three straight titles was also UCLA from 1971-73 (actually 1967-73). Aidan Mahaney looks like a poor man's Cam Spencer, Liam McNeeley doesn't look like a Stephon Castle top-5 pick, and no one on this roster seems capable of replicating Tristen Newton or Donovan Clingan's contributions.

 

 

And yet, this is what we wrote last year: "Good team, yes, tourney team, most likely, but top-10 Big East title contender? Not so much." Not sure we could've been much more wrong with that take. What makes UConn's accomplishments more impressive is comparing them to the last back-to-back champions, 2006 & 2007 Florida. Billy Donovan's teams had the same starting five both years, and even their first two off the bench were the same. Hurley's 2023 team lost three starters and their top two bench options, yet managed to be unquestionably better in 2024. Until they are dethroned, UConn has to be the pick at the top of the Big East because they've earned that position.

 

One Man's Opinion

 

At this point, how can you not put UConn #1 in the Big East? Not only did they win consecutive National Titles, but they won the league by four games and took home the Big East Tournament title. They did all that despite losing three starters to the NBA. On paper, this team looks to be taking a step back from a year ago, but that was the case a year ago. Hurley and his staff have hit home runs in the portal, from the high school ranks, and through their own development the past two years. The staff is operating at an incredibly high level. It's hard to imagine them not falling back a little bit from their insanely dominant past two NCAA runs, but at this point they are the champions of every competition they've participated in since losing to Marquette at MSG on March 10, 2023. If someone wants to claim that title, go for it, but until they do, UConn has earned this position.