Marquette Golden Eagles
April 7th, 2025 at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Head Coach: Shaka Smart (346-172 overall, 75-30 at Marquette)
Three-Year NET Average: 25.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 24
Photo from JSOnline.com
State of the Program
In 105 years of Marquette Basketball, the program reached 27 wins in a season just four times before Shaka Smart took the reins. Al McGuire did it twice (1971, 1976), Tom Crean did it in his Final Four year (2003), and Buzz Williams did it as well (2012). In the past two years, Shaka Smart has matched McGuire, setting a program record for wins while having the best two-year win total in program history. This includes a Big East regular season title, tournament title, tournament runner-up, and NCAA Sweet 16 appearance. The downside is that the two players considered most responsible for that success are now in the NBA, but Marquette does return three starters while promoting a pair of juniors to the starting lineup and adding a pair of freshmen expected to contribute. In terms of roster development, Shaka Smart's team makeup harkens back to days of yore (you know, like five years ago before we saw 1,500+ transfers per year) as they focus on internal development. Can he keep it up without Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro? That remains to be seen, but it's been a long time since there's been this much sustained optimism in Milwaukee.
Rotation
Kam Jones: The man at the top of the scouting report will be Kam Jones. At Marquette's first public practice under Shaka Smart in 2021, the coach said Jones could leave Marquette as the all-time leading scorer. While he won't get close to Markus Howard, if he repeats his scoring from last year (620 points) he would become the second Marquette player to 2,000 points. Offensively, Jones is a lethal three point shooter (40.6%) who is one of the best finishers his size at the rim (65.0%). There will be concerns about his ability to handle the point, but in a pick and roll heavy offense, Jones' pick and roll efficiency (1.025 points per possession, 90th percentile) was actually better than All-American Kolek (0.886 ppp, 74th percentile) according to Synergy. Jones' overall statline was impressive, but when Kolek was out for six games in March, Jones averaged 20.8 ppg/4.7 rpg/4.5 apg, increasing all of his primary counting stats while also increasing his usage. If Kam can be the same player for a season he was during those six games, there's a real chance he'll be an All-American and a favorite for Big East Player of the Year.
Stevie Mitchell: Mitchell is the definition of a glue guy. On offense, he does most of his damage driving to the rim where he finished at a higher rate than Jones (71.9%) albeit on lower usage. He was poor on the season from three, but that was largely because he started the season on a 3/23 clip before hitting 40.8% from beyond the arc in Big East play. He's at his best when he's turning defense into offense. Mitchell led the Big East in steal rate and is excellent in transition, averaging 1.328 ppp on transition attempts. Where he has really made his name is on the defensive end. Mitchell is a tenacious defender who will be tasked with defending the opponent's best perimeter player, but what makes him more impressive is his ability to switch onto anyone and seemingly get his hands on any even slightly errant pass. While Mitchell projects to be Marquette's shortest rotation player, he is tremendously strong and can hold his own even in the post. He won't get the press of Marquette's other players but he's integral on both sides of the ball.
During our interview last week Tyler Kolek spoke about bringing intensity to practice,
— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) February 4, 2023
"This year that guy is Stevie Mitchell... he's just a winning guy with all the things that he does"
Late in the game against Butler those winning habits showed up pic.twitter.com/tnubQARkwj
Chase Ross: According to Shaka Smart, Ross played the bulk of last season injured and is primed for a breakout. He's an electric athlete and produces highlight reel dunks. Ross got hurt at Seton Hall and saw his 2PFG% dip from 51.2% to 43.9%. He made up for that with a stellar 45.7% three point accuracy after the New Year. Defensively, Ross is an excellent defender who uses his quickness and length to disrupt passing lanes and stick with his man. There is definitely still room for Ross to develop, but he has NBA level athleticism and upside. It's also worth noting that Marquette played better with Ross and Kam Jones than they did with Ross and Tyler Kolek. Credit Phil Bush of Scrambled Eggs for this theory, but the numbers bear it out:
David Joplin: After a Big East Sixth Man of the Year campaign the season before, the Jopwagon became a polarizing figure, largely because he was so hot and cold. He kept Marquette in the game with 19 points against UCLA, then combined for 5 in the next two games against Kansas and Purdue. He seemed barely present at Providence, then exploded for 20/9 against Georgetown. UConn was his Kryptonite as he had a sub-100 offensive rating in all three games (including 1/13 from three), but his steady offense helped pace Marquette against Western Kentucky and Colorado on the way to the Sweet 16. Joplin does most of his offensive damage from deep taking nearly 60% of his shots beyond the arc. He started to show some ability at the rim and finally converted some dunks (after none his first two seasons). Defensively, Joplin improved visibly last season. Early in his career, his hands weren't very active and too often he would let his man get around him. He definitely plays with a higher activity level on that end (5.6% block rate the last six weeks of the season) and has added strength to better hold his position. Joplin will likely never be an elite defender, but he is a passable one.
Ben Gold: It's not often you see a 6'11" player that takes 78.0% of their shots from beyond the arc, but that's Ben Gold. Like Ross and Mitchell, his shooting improved as the season went on. Gold shot 29.6% (including a 5-game 0/12 stretch) in Marquette's first eighteen games, then scorched the nets at a 41.3% clip the rest of the way. He was also excellent at the rim, converting 82.1% of his shots, but that's with the caveat that he rarely took shots at the rim for a player his size (18.7% of his attempts). While Gold will likely do just fine on offense, where he has to answer questions are on defense. Part of that is because he's replacing Oso Ighodaro, who was a true rarity as a center that could switch 1-5 and could pick up a point guard on the perimeter or hold his own banging in the low blocks. Per hoop-explorer, Marquette was 7.5 points/100 possessions worse with Gold on the floor. Some of that is a function of how good Ighodaro was, but Gold has not displayed the lateral quickness, the effective use of length, or the incredible defensive IQ. That development will determine a lot about this team.
The Bench: Anyone close to the program has heard the name Damarius Owens being discussed since the freshmen arrived in June. Owens is a long, athletic wing who is in contention to be the first player off the bench. Reports from Marquette indicate he has starting level talent now, is a solid inside-out scorer, has great defensive length, and at the first scrimmage was even playing at the point for his team at times. It's hard to put much faith in an unknown freshman, but everyone we've talked to who has watched this team in the summer comes away raving about Owens. The known factors are Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery. Both earned spot minutes last year but will likely be needed more this season. The most likely big man off the bench is redshirt freshman Caedin Hamilton. He's definitely thicker than Gold and is expected to play more back-to-the-basket like a traditional post. Hamilton is still a developmental piece but is expected to be part of the rotation. The biggest question mark is Sean Jones. Initial injury reports put his return after the New Year. Older Marquette fans might be reminded of Junior Cadougan's freshman year, when he returned late in the year from injury but only managed to play 47 minutes scattered across 12 games. It was effectively a wasted year on a team that didn't utilize him for depth but prevented him from being able to play on the 2013-14 team that could have used another experienced guard. Quick twitch players like Jones need all of their quickness and lower body strength, so hopefully he isn't rushed back too soon. Al Amadou and Royce Parham round out the scholarship players, but it seems unlikely either play major minutes this year.
Style of Play
As far as Marquette is concerned, the only shots worth taking on offense are from three or at the rim. They rank 344th in mid-range rate by design, because despite ranking 20th in mid-range efficiency (42.2%) that is pedestrian compared to their 74th ranked rim efficiency rate (60.9%). The Golden Eagles play fast, seeking to get a look early in the shot clock before the defense is set, averaging a 9th fastest 15.3 seconds per offensive possession. The offense starts on the defensive end. The top-20 turnover rate keys the transition offense that is in the 87th percentile in efficiency (1.28 ppp). Rick Pitino compared Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro to John Stockton and Karl Malone. Their departure will likely mean a change in the offense. While there are still fine pick and roll options, no one on this team can match the sheer volume that Kolek and Ighodaro operated at. Expect less frequent pick and roll, though relatively speaking. Marquette was in the 97th percentile of PnR usage according to Synergy, so even if there's a decline in usage they'll still be in the 85th-90th percentile range. Because the cutters (1.342 ppp, 94th percentile) and rollers (1.208, 91st percentile) were so effective, this team will have to make up for that somehow. Expect a heavier dosage of three point attempts. To maintain offensive efficiency, Marquette will need to see their shooters play more like they did in the back half of the season; in the first 18 games Marquette was at 31.5% from three, in the next 18 they shot 40.8% from deep.
Table from synergysports.com
On defense, Marquette plays aggressive, often starting with a 3/4-court press designed to take 8-10 seconds off the shot clock. That aggression is why Marquette isn't among the top tempo teams in the country as they hold teams to the second slowest defensive possession length at 19.1 seconds on average. The shortened clock is combined with active hands. One of the team goals is to get 32 deflections per game, which can be anything from a blocked shot to a steal to simply tipping a pass out of bounds. The goal is disruption, and players like Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross excel in that regard. More often than not, Marquette will be in a switching man to man. Having strong guards like Mitchell coupled with quick bigs like Oso allowed that switching, but it may be more difficult with Ben Gold in the middle. Marquette may try to protect him more and use him in drop coverage, feinting to the arc before fading back to protect the rim and counter pick and roll actions. While it's primarily a man defense, Smart does like to mix in zone, especially on crucial out-of-bounds or late-game possessions to throw teams off. They typically only run zone 3-4 possessions per game, but are excellent when they do, holding teams to 0.825 ppp, in the 87th percentile per Synergy.
2024-25 Outlook
This year is a huge test for Shaka Smart's roster building model. Since his first year, Smart has primarily built through the high school ranks while everyone else is focusing on the transfer portal and NIL-fused bidding wars. However much of that success came on the backs of Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Tyler Kolek, and Oso Ighodaro, all of whom are in the NBA now. That shows the staff's ability to develop talent as none of the three were on NBA radars in the summer of 2021, but the question is if that was catching lightning in a bottle or building a form of renewable energy that will continue beyond their departures. I caveat this with the admission this is a Marquette blog and those of us involved in creating it definitely have a fan investment, but I think this team can be just as good or even better than the teams of the past two years. Jones is an elite scorer who showed when Kolek was injured that he can successfully play the point. Mitchell and Ross may be role-players, but both are efficient on both ends. This team also has a more proven bench as both Norman and Lowery earned meaningful minutes last year while the team dealt with injuries to Mitchell, Ross, Ighodaro, and Kolek. One of the other constant questions about the ability for teams to become elite is NBA talent, and while two players left for the NBA, Jones looks like he is next while Ross and Owens both seem to have the length and athleticism that will earn them a shot at that level, perhaps not next summer but in the coming years.
Photo from Instagram | @damar1us
I expect the offense to work because as we pointed out in the summer of 2022, it's not volume scoring but whether you have efficient shooters taking the shots that the departed players took. Gold may not take the same shots Oso took, but he is efficient wherever he shoots from. Ross may not match Kolek on his own, but there are plenty of options and the second half shooting indicates his contributions are replaceable. On defense, before arriving at Marquette, Smart had a top-40 defense for 10 straight years and since arriving he has improved Marquette's defense from #83 the year before he arrived to #55, #43, and #17 last year. With 18 years of experience in the starting lineup, it's safe to say these guys know what the staff expects and will be able to execute.
One Man's Opinion
Placing Marquette at #2 in the Big East comes from a combination of factors. First is the belief in Kam Jones and his ability to be the best player in the Big East. Second is faith in the development the coaching staff has displayed in sending three players to the NBA Draft in the past two years. Third is that a roster based on continuity will work in a transfer era. While Marquette may not have the flashy new names of programs like St. John's and Xavier, everyone in the program knows their role and has clear expectations, which will allow them to start the season at a more comfortable level. But it's not just the roster consistency, it's also the quality. Mitchell, Ross, and Joplin have all shown the ability to step up. Gold has been groomed for this role for two years and provides a unique defensive challenge to opponents. And the bench is a mixture of talent and experience with the bulk of them having time in the system. Too often, people focus on what a team lost and the transfers that will replace them, but ss Trilly Donovan likes to say, sometimes the best gets are the ones you already have, and Marquette has that in spades.
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