St. John's Red Storm
February 4th, 2025 at Madison Square Garden / March 8th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum
Head Coach: Rick Pitino (731-303 overall, 20-13 at St. John's)
Three-Year NET Average: 64.7
Three-Year kenpom Average: 52.7
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 15
Photo by Chris Hagan | Rumble in the Garden
State of the Program
Rick Pitino overhauled the St. John's roster in his first season in Queens, bringing back only big man Joel Soriano and surrounding him with stud mid-major players. Through mid-January, it seemed to be working as the Red Storm surged to a 12-4 (4-1) record. That came to a crashing halt as St. John's lost eight of their next ten games, leading Pitino to tear into his team, criticizing their effort and defense. It was the offense that responded. From that speech on, St. John's went on an offensive tear, posting the #1 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking in the country according to T-Rank. Despite a 6-game winning streak, they fell short against UConn in the Big East Tournament semifinals and missed the NCAA Tournament. Soriano graduated, as did the bulk of their transfer class, including Chris Ledlum, Daniss Jenkins, and Jordan Dingle. Pitino again hit the portal, bringing in the #4 transfer class according to 247 Sports, headlined by the back court duo of Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith. Pitino has optimism back in Queens, but is it more tangible than last year's brand of promise?
Rotation
The Johnnies will have a dual-point guard attack. Deivon Smith is an elite shot creator, ranking #3 in the nation in assist rate while excelling at getting to the rim. He doesn't take a ton of outside shots, but he has great long range accuracy (40.8%) and is in the 86th percentile on catch-and-shoot opportunities according to Synergy. Kadary Richmond comes across the river from Seton Hall where he was First Team All-Big East. Richmond is a power guard, using his physicality to challenge shots and create turnovers on the defensive end while bullying his way into the lane and using his height and vision to find shooters on offense. According to hoop-explorer, Seton Hall's adjusted points/100 possessions was 8.4 p/100 better on offense and 12.1 p/100 better on defense, a staggering 20.5 p/100 better when he was on the court despite relatively anemic shooting numbers. Simeon Wilcher was a five-star recruit who struggled to get on the court as a freshman, but has earned rave reviews from Pitino since late last year when he called him "the future of the program." R.J. Luis will hope to step up to a bigger role after finishing the season strong. He posted 12.5 ppg/4.9 rpg in the last ten games of the season and is learning to use his length and athleticism to impact both ends of the floor. Zuby Ejiofor is the other returning player that is expected to start. He does the bulk of his work inside and excels on the offensive glass, though if he's not ready USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu provides additional length and experience. Aaron Scott will likely anchor the bench or interchange with Smith or Luis as a spot starter, providing experience and shooting, though also some bad midrange tendencies (35.2 MR% on 41.0% of his attempts). Brady Dunlap and freshman Jaiden Glover provide additional options off the bench.
Style of Play
Rick Pitino is known for a dribble-drive motion offense. Last year we expected a lot of driving and a lot of kicking to open shooters, with the bigs crashing the boards and cleaning up misses. The only part of that we got was Joel Soriano crashing the glass. 13.1% of their offensive attempts came on shots directly off an offensive rebound, which was tops in the country. There was very little dribble, very little drive, and a whole lot of inefficient shots in the midrange. The departure of Daniss Jenkins, Naheim Alleyne and Jordan Dingle, all of whom were more likely to pull up in the midrange than try to get to the rim, should help. This is underscored by the additions of Smith and Richmond, as well as the expanded role for Luis, all of whom love to attack the rim and clearly understand the value of getting shots in close. The chart below shows the frequency of midrange vs at the rim rates and field goal percentages to show how much better suited this roster is to the game plan. Expect this offense to look a lot more like what Pitino likes to run. The biggest question will be long-range shooting. Scott is a proven shooter, but he's really the only one in the rotation. Smith was great last year at 40.8% but before that was a career 27.3% shooter and had never reached 28.0% in a season. Richmond and Luis will shoot from deep, but neither are tremendously accurate. Pitino's Iona teams relied a lot more on threes and rim attempts and this year's St. John's roster will likely give him the ability to go back to that focus.
Stats from hoop-explorer.com
Pitino's hallmark has been his defense. Relative to his competition, Pitino had 10 straight seasons finishing no worse than 3rd in conference defense (and the only year he was third in league he was 8th in the nation). Suffice to say, last year's 6th in the Big East rank was less than ideal. Pitino ripped his defense after losses to Dayton, to Boston College, to Marquette, and most famously to Seton Hall when he said "this has been the most unenjoyable experience I've had since I've been coaching." Ultimately, this was likely a roster construction problem. St. John's had a plodding big man with the footspeed of a traffic cone in the middle and a mid-major roster that excelled scoring but gave it back easily on the other end because they simply didn't have the athleticism or defensive IQ. This team should be different. Pitino's teams like to play high-pressure defense. They don't press as much as he once did, but they will aggressively chase teams off the line and use their physicality all over the court. Richmond is a matchup problem on this end of the court as well and all of their rotation players will be aggressive in hunting steals. Pitino's teams also are excellent protecting the rim and this team will be no exception. To beat them, teams have to take advantage of when St. John's overplays the ball and be tenacious inside because they will give up offensive rebounds.
2024-25 Outlook
The biggest concern about St. John's is that the inmates ran the asylum. Pitino put together a team that took bad shots on offense and couldn't guard on defense. Despite that, they nearly made it to the NCAA Tournament and finished #21 at kenpom, their highest rank since Mike Jarvis took them to the Elite 8 in 1999. That should answer any questions about whether Pitino can still coach. And while he had mid-major all-stars last year, his reinforcements this year were true high-major performers. Richmond is a Big East Player of the Year candidate, Smith excels at creating late when the play breaks down (94th percentile in last 4 seconds of shot clock per Synergy), Luis and Scott are the kind of two-way wings Pitino needs, and his front court duo of Ejiofor and Iwuchukwu are more mobile and team oriented. Historically, Pitino is a wizard in his second season on the job. Just look at the chart below.
St. John's has the roster to run Pitino's offense, has capable and willing defenders, and a coach who excels at the quick turnaround. This team should be significantly improved, spend the bulk of the season ranked in the top-25 with dark horse Big East champs potential, and could find themselves in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament or beyond if things really break right.
One Man's Opinion
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Last year we picked St. John's third in the Big East, and while they didn't live up to that, they were fourth in the league in adjusted efficiency. Well, here we go picking the Johnnies #3 in the Big East again. Pitino has a roster that suits what he wants to do and the more I look at what they did last year despite a limited roster, the more I believe in what this team can be. Pitino now has a high-major back court and much better quality depth across the board. Smith and Richmond could be elite together and the defensive length and athleticism has me convinced there will be significant improvement on that end. This is a team that should have the NCAA Tournament as a minimum expectation and are viable contenders to UConn's Big East throne and have the potential to reach the second or third weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
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