Villanova Preview, 2024-25

Villanova Wildcats

January 24th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 21st, 2025 at Wells Fargo Center

Head Coach: Kyle Neptune (51-49 overall, 35-33 at Villanova)

Three-Year NET Average: 40.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 32.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 43

Eric Dixon is the only returning starter from last year's NIT team

 Photo by Charles Fox | Philadelphia Inquirer

State of the Program

When Jay Wright left, Villanova had completed a decade with two National Championships, an additional Final Four, five Big East Tournament titles, seven Big East regular season titles, and eight top-20 kenpom finishes. They were an elite program operating at the top of the sport. In Kyle Neptune's second season, the Wildcats finished tied for sixth in the Big East (10-10) and missed the NCAA Tournament, all for the second straight year. More worrying might be that gone from that roster are five of the top six rotation players, primarily replaced with mid-major up-transfers. While there are mitigating circumstances we'll get into later, Kyle Neptune has the most pressure of his young career with what looks like his least talented roster on paper at Villanova.

Rotation

Neptune probably didn't expect to be replacing his point guard this soon, but Jhamir Brickus comes across town from La Salle where he was a four-year starter. Brickus will be a change from Mark Armstrong. He's a better ball-handler, creator, and shooter, but isn't the elite pick and roll player nor nearly the defender Armstrong was. Wooga Poplar comes from Miami. Like Brickus, he brings more shooting but has deficiencies on the defensive end. Miami also took a big step back as his role expanded, though that blame doesn't lie solely on him. Jordan Longino will need to take a big step up. One of the last Jay Wright holdovers, he does a little bit of everything but hasn't really excelled at anything. The polar opposite of that is Eric Dixon, who does a lot of everything, and seems to do it all well. According to hoop-explorer, Villanova's adjusted efficiency was 20.5 points/100 possessions better (+17.8 on offense/-2.7 on defense) with Dixon on the floor. Expect the bulk of the offense to run through him, as he is a solid catch-and-shoot option on the perimeter, can put it on the floor and get to the rim, and even create for others. His partner up front will be Enoch Boakye, a monster rebounder and prodigious shot blocker. On offense, Boakye provides a lob threat and does well finishing in pick and roll situations. He's also a dangerous transition weapon as he runs the floor well. If he has issues, they are on the defensive end. His shot blocking and rebounding cover up some deficiencies, but he's a poor man defender and if he isn't getting the block, he probably isn't stopping the shot. The bench is very young, with Tyler Perkins the only player with significant D1 experience. The Penn transfer is joined by a quartet of freshmen with varying expectations. Aleksandar Gavalyugov is considered a high-upside European import, though whether he's instant impact or more of a project (as most European transfers are) remains to be seen. Matthew Hodge and Josiah Moseley are true freshmen wings who will likely need to provide immediate minutes while Alabama transfer Kris Parker redshirted last year but became highly coveted in the portal as he came very close to committing to Florida State and Butler before settling on 'Nova.

Style of Play

Kyle Neptune is trying to continue what Villanova did under Jay Wright. Instead of a deep playbook, they teach concepts, getting players to move constantly off the ball to create open looks. Everyone develops multi-dimensional skills, so the bigs can not only step out and hit a three, but put it on the floor or deliver a precision pass to create an open three for a teammate. The guards can drive and run the offense, but are equally comfortable turning their back and posting up in the paint, and have the strength to finish down there. This also requires teaching patience and waiting to attack until you find the right shot, which led to one of the more aesthetically appealing slow-paced offenses. Wright succeeded in part because he had years to develop players, teaching and reteaching the same lessons year over year. Under Neptune, the concepts are the same. Lots of attacking the interior in order to finish at the rim, kick out for a three, or find a perimeter cutter. However, a mix of injuries to top players, rotations heavily based on freshmen, and an increased reliance on the transfer portal has led to diminished returns. After nine straight years in the top-21 of kenpom's offensive efficiency, they finished #39 and #87 the past two years.

Do you see all that blue? Jay Wright would NEVER!
 Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defense was where Neptune's team excelled. Their #13 kenpom finish was the best since their 2018 National Championship team. They like defenders that can switch and rebound. Villanova is focused on keeping teams out of the paint. Their bigs will play drop coverage to make sure rim attempts are limited and everyone is focused on blitzing ball screens to further hamper pick and roll. They rely on quick defenders who can get to the spot before the offensive player, which minimizes good looks inside. Villanova is great at gang rebounding as everyone will come to the glass which limits second shot opportunities. As might be expected, this interior focus leaves the perimeter open, which is why Neptune's teams have been sub-300 in defensive three-point attempt rate each of the past two years. This feels like a holdover from Jay Wright, and is a scheme that can work if you have better shooters and create better looks than your opponents. That really hasn't been the case the past two years.

2024-25 Outlook

Let me start by saying I think Kyle Neptune is a bit underrated as a coach. He's clearly no Jay Wright, but his first 'Nova team was killed by the Whitmore and Moore injuries. They're likely a tourney team if those two are healthy all year. Last year it was poor luck in close games, as they went 4-9 in games decided by two possessions or in overtime. In terms of bad bounces, they ranked #330 and #351 in kenpom's Luck stat those two years. Neptune has had some really bad fortune, but some of those close games may come down to him not having the experience to make the right coaching move at the critical moment. Putting together consecutive 10-10 Big East records and top-60 kenpom finishes indicate to me he's not as bad as people make out.

That said, I hesitate to see this team's road to success. Dixon is fantastic, but at his best he was the fifth option on a Final Four team. In the years he's been expected to carry the load, Villanova has been absent from the NCAA Tournament. Brickus, Boakye, and Perkins are fine mid-major players, but it's hard to imagine them having a more positive impact than Tyler Burton, Hakim Hart, and Lance Ware did a year ago. Wooga Poplar is probably the highlight addition, and is he really going to be better than T.J. Bamba was? This team has lost the continuity they thrived on and while this may not be the least talented team in the league, it certainly doesn't look like a tourney team. The man that needs to be the difference maker is Neptune, and while he might be a perfectly fine coach, in a league with Dan Hurley, Shaka Smart, Rick Pitino, Sean Miller, Thad Matta, and Greg McDermott, you either need an elite roster or elite coach to compete at the top of the league. I don't see either of those things on the Main Line anymore. Neptune was well suited to learn the craft at a program like Fordham, where he was probably a middle-tier A-10 coach, but in the Big East he's near the bottom simply because the coaching talent is so high.

One Man's Opinion

I'm picking Villanova #8 in the Big East. I could see a world where the transfers pan out and the Dixon/Poplar combination is enough to lift them to the right side of the bubble, but this roster just looks too unproven for a coach with Neptune's limitations. And while there's bubble upside, if things go wrong, this team could fall all the way to the cellar of the Big East. I strongly suspect this will be Neptune's last year heading the Wildcats.