Cracketology: Quick Hits

 

David Joplin scored a career high 30, but Marquette took a metric hit in Chicago

Photo by Erin Hooley | AP Photo

It was a busy Tuesday night, which led to late night crunching and early morning revisions. As a result, just a few quick thoughts on the bracket today to go along with a new S-Curve and bracket.

• Marquette's 1-Seed Chances: The chances of a 1-seed really come down to one thing and that's running up scoring margins. The Golden Eagles ranked #13 in resume average before the overtime win at DePaul. They can get a 2-seed on the strength of a Big East double title like they did in 2023, but if they want a 1-seed, they need to be beating teams like Georgetown and DePaul by 20+ points, not single digits. Right now I think Marquette is unlikely to earn the first 1-seed in program history.
• The Current 1-Seeds: Auburn rolling without Johni Broome locks them at the top of the bracket, though Duke and Iowa State aren't far behind. The last 1-seed does seem to be up for grabs, as Tennessee had it, fell back to a 2-seed after the loss to Florida, then jumped ahead of Alabama again after the Tide lost last night. Florida and Kentucky are the other most likely candidates to push for that spot with Marquette as the Gators have great metrics and Kentucky has a ton of great wins.
  
• Big East Bids: Creighton moved into our bracket thanks to their 4-2 Big East start and big win over Providence. Georgetown is on the bubble, but needs some marquee wins and dropping three straight to Marquette, UConn, and St. John's won't help. Villanova and Xavier were also considered, but don't have enough heft at the top end to offset their atrocious resume averages.
• Who wants a bid? On the bubble, New Mexico, Arizona State, Ohio State, Indiana, Arkansas, and Georgetown all took damaging losses last night. It was so bad that New Mexico and Arizona State only fell from the first play-in to the second play-in game because no one did enough to pass them.

Here's the updated S-Curve and bracket:

 

Multibid Leagues

SEC: 12

Big 10: 9

Big 12: 9

ACC: 5

Big East: 4

Mountain West: 3

WCC: 2