Cracketology: Championship Week Watchlist

 

Marquette & Kansas will battle for conference titles & seeding this week

Photo by Marco Garcia | AP Photo

We have made it to Championship Week, and while it might not be the week to watch that Marquette fans were expecting in January, there's still a lot to pay attention to. Today will just be a quick hit to update the seed list and explain the six groupings of teams we are looking at. We'll go a bit deeper on the third grouping, which is where Marquette is located.

First Grouping - The 1-Seed Contenders: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State

The first four currently sit in 1-seed position. Auburn and Duke are pretty well cemented here. Houston and Florida are solid, but Alabama or Tennessee can make a case with an SEC Tournament title, while it would be hard to imagine a Big 10 regular season and tournament champ not being on the 1-line. None of these teams will be below a 2-seed.

Second Grouping - Protected Seed Contenders: St. John's, Texas Tech, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Iowa State, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Clemson, Oregon, Arizona, Saint Mary's

I feel confident about the St. John's through Wisconsin group likely being protected seeds. One of those Big 10 teams might fall out, but they are in good shape. Clemson and Oregon are very close for the last 4-seed, with Clemson having the edge metrically over Oregon's overall wins. Arizona and Saint Mary's are a stretch in this group, but too good to be in the next group.

Third Grouping - The Middle Seeds: Michigan, UCLA, BYU, Illinois, Louisville, Ole Miss, Kansas, Marquette, Missouri, Memphis, Mississippi State

This group has fluctuated a little, but the 20-30 spots have been the hardest to sort out over the past 7-10 days. A tournament title could put any of these teams into the mix to climb into the battle for the last 4-seed, while a loss could have them dropping to an 8 or even a 9. I expect game through Friday to hold weight here because the resumes are so close. We'll look ahead at each of these teams further down this page so you know when to tune in for Marquette fans trying to figure out their seed in real time.

Fourth Grouping - Should Be In: UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Utah State, Georgia, New Mexico, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Drake

Obviously Drake is in, but they round out this group of teams from a seeding perspective. These are primarily the 8-10 seeds that should feel confident they will hear their names on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is probably the most difficult to figure out here, as they have 11-seed resume metrics and 3-seed predictive metrics. The WCC finishes early, so if they can get the title it might push them as high as a 6 or 7. I do think they are in regardless, but I wouldn't advise losing their opener to test the Selection Committee. For Marquette, a UConn/Creighton Big East Tournament title would be a bad thing. Right now the non-con wins have Marquette clearly grouped ahead of the other Big East teams here, but if they are drawn into a direct comparison, Creighton being the outright #2 with so a double-round-robin to compare and UConn having the sweep of Marquette could have either of those teams jumping up ahead of the Golden Eagles.

Fifth Grouping - Bid Thief Watchers: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Indiana, San Diego State, Xavier, UC San Diego, Baylor, UC Irvine

This past weekend really cleared up the bubble picture. These teams are in, but those last three in particular (four if SDSU loses to Boise) should be watching for bid thieves. These are teams that have generally overcome fatal flaws and have enough to be in. I don't think these teams will automatically fall out with an early loss, but a loss and a bid thief could push any of them (especially the Dayton-bound) out of the field. In the Big West, UC San Diego has the better bubble case than UC Irvine because of their win over Utah State, so for that to be a 2-bid league the most likely scenario is Irvine beating UCSD in the title game.

Sixth Grouping - On Life Support: North Carolina, Boise State, Wake Forest, Dayton

I have a hard time seeing any of these teams getting in, but if some of the teams in the fifth grouping lose early and there aren't many bid thieves, these are the teams with the best cases to sneak into Dayton. UNC and Wake will likely have a play-out game on Thursday with the winner needing to beat Duke to have any shot of an at-large. Boise gets SDSU in a game that could flip the two Mountain West schools. Dayton has been hanging at the edge of the bubble but the big non-con wins might get them back in the mix if they can add a couple wins and get chaos ahead of them. Anyone not listed here likely needs to win a conference tournament to hear their name.

Here's a quick look at the next games for the teams in the third grouping:

Michigan vs Purdue/Rutgers/USC - Friday, March 14: Michigan needs a couple wins to have any hope of getting back to the 4-line. They haven't played well of late, but if they get a win over Purdue it would likely secure them on the 5-line barring someone from behind making a big run.

UCLA vs Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa - Friday, March 14: The Bruins have been strong since their 4-game swoon in early January. Their top end wins are excellent but the 5-line is probably their ceiling because of the late title game.

BYU vs Iowa State/Oklahoma State/Cincinnati - Thursday, March 13: BYU has rocketed up the seed list of late. They might have the best case in this grouping to be able to get to the 4-line with a tournament title because their path would likely include Iowa State, Houston, and another team in the field while also wrapping up by Saturday night. Their seed could come down to location as they need to open play in Providence, Lexington, Wichita, or Denver while playing in the East or West regions.

Illinois vs Iowa/Ohio State - Thursday, March 13: Which Illinois team will show up in Indianapolis? They could win the whole thing and likely push for a 5-seed or possibly back end 4, or could drop their first game and crack the door for Ohio State (if they are alive) to crawl back into the field.

Louisville vs Stanford/Virginia Tech/Cal - Thursday, March 13: Louisville won't move the dial on Thursday, needing to beat Clemson and/or Duke to really help their case. Despite the gaudy record, the lack of resume wins in the ACC has them looking destined for the 6/7 lines.

Ole Miss vs Arkansas/South Carolina - Thursday, March 13: For Ole Miss to move the needle they need to win at least two games, which would include Auburn on Friday. That feels unlikely. I feel safe pencilling them in as a 7-seed, as their destiny seems to rely more on the teams around them than themselves.

Kansas vs Utah/UCF - Wednesday, March 12: The Jayhawks win over Arizona stopped the bleeding, but they'll need to win their opener and beat Arizona again to have any shot at moving up further. It feels like a 6-seed is their ceiling unless they win the Big 12 Tournament.

Marquette vs Xavier - Thursday, March 13: It will be a desperate Musketeers squad that lines up Thursday night as they are 2 bid thieves removed from being on the outside looking in. If Marquette can win Thursday and Friday, they should be safely on the 6-line, with a 5-seed still possible. Barring some collapse further up the bracket, I don't see them getting back to the protected seeds. On the other end, a loss could see Marquette end up in an 8/9 game, though most likely still wearing home whites in the opener.

Missouri vs Mississippi St/LSU - Thursday, March 13: If Mississippi State beats LSU, that sets up the only Middle vs Middle battle currently on our slate. Mizzou's wins have them on the 7-line ahead of Mississippi State, but if one of these teams can win and then beat Florida, they could jump up 1-2 lines. I can't imagine much after that mattering with the SEC not wrapping their tournament until Sunday.

Memphis vs South Florida/Wichita State - Friday, March 14: Tiger fans won't like seeing themselves on the 8-line, but their wins have lost some luster and three Q3 losses is more outside Q1+2 than any team in the running for a single-digit seed. This is one of the hardest teams to seed as they have 5-seed resume metrics and 13-seed predictive metrics. They get bumped up a bit because of their Q1 record (6-1) and counting as AAC champs, but this is a team that could land anywhere from the 5-10 seed lines because of their bizarre resume.

Here's our current seed list: