Photo by Mike de Sisti | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Selection Sunday is just days away, which means we will soon know where Marquette is going and who they will be matching up with in the NCAA Tournament. So much of March success is about matchups, which is why today we are going to look at potential first and second round opponents for Marquette to see who we hope to see and hope to avoid in the opening weekend.
First, we need to assess Marquette's strengths and weaknesses. I used a combination of kenpom, CBB Analytics, Haslametrics, and Synergy Sports to determine places Marquette can take advantage of opponents on offense and defense as well as places opponents can exploit Marquette.
Marquette Offense: Marquette's drive to get to the rim pays off as they are one of the best teams in the country when they get there. They are also very good at pick & pop plays, largely highlighted by Ben Gold's tendency to pop off of screens. In transition, they get a heavy dose of chances and are lethal when they are on the run. There are negatives as well. Marquette is miserable against zone. And while their 3PFG% conversion rate is just below average, the high frequency of three point attempts makes this a weakness, especially against teams that let them shoot those shots they are poor at converting on. Haslametrics notes Marquette performs poorly against teams that deny second chance points, largely because while they are decent on the offensive glass, they are terrible at putting those rebounds back through the hoop.
Marquette Defense: Marquette's pick and roll familiarity pays off with high efficiency defending those plays. They also excel at forcing turnovers and converting them into points, which is related to the offensive transition numbers. Marquette is also very good in isolation, which is good because it's a frequent means of attack for opposing teams. Where Marquette struggles is on cuts to the rim as well as defending off screens. Marquette can also be beat on the boards as teams are good at getting second chances and better at converting them.
We currently expect Marquette to land as either a 6-seed or 7-seed and will base our opponent expectations on those seed lines. Most of these evaluations will be based on Synergy percentiles, which means the higher the number the better the team is in that particular area.
Opening Round Opponents
11-Seed Dream - Indiana: Offensively, Marquette would likely gash Indiana at the rim (53%) and in transition (19%). They are average rebounding on both ends, so this isn't an area they would really be able to exploit. Indiana runs a lot of pick & roll ball handler (74%) but are terrible at executing it (7%). They're also an even worse shooting team than Marquette. One thing that jumped out is that while they don't use a lot of zone (3.9% of defensive possessions) they used zone on 42/66 possessions in their upset win at Michigan State. But overall, this is a team where the matchups would really favor Marquette.
11-Seed Nightmare - VCU: Defensively, what Marquette wants to do is exactly what VCU is best at taking away. They are in the 99th percentile of at the rim defense, they defend well off screens, and they are great denying second chances. While I do think Marquette could turn VCU over, their other strengths don't really play into what VCU is best at. The Rams are good at cuts and excellent coming off screens, both of which would be problematic. Add in a pair of high-major caliber scorers in Joe Bamisile and Max Shulga and the Rams will be a tough out. Not to mention all the extra attention that will come with a Shaka vs VCU matchup.
Photo by Tim Aylen | AP Photo
10-Seed Dream - Oklahoma: This is a team Marquette should feast on. They are awful defending at the rim (9%), not particularly good in transition (43%), and turn the ball over a lot (Ranked 202nd). They don't run much zone and are poor defending putbacks. On the other end, pick and roll ball handler is their second most frequent play type but they execute poorly (11%) and they run heavy isolation (96% usage) with mediocre effectiveness (43%). They're also a poor cutting team (12%) and on put back attempts (26%) so they don't seem suited to take advantage of Marquette's weaknesses. While the individual talent of guys like Jeremiah Fears and Duke Miles is impressive, this is a team Marquette should handle.
10-Seed Nightmare - Utah State: Defensively this team is trouble. They primarily run zone, which will immediately make things more difficult for Marquette. They aren't great guarding the paint but do very well keeping teams out of it (7% frequency). They rate out as excellent guarding transition (89%), off screens (94%), and pick and roll ball handler (91%). Offensively, they are don't use much pick and roll ball handler (22% frequency) or iso (27%) and have the best turnover rate on the 10-line (ranked #87). They are great on cuts (99%) and good off screens (75%) and put backs (96%). Basically, the things Marquette would exploit they don't do frequently, and the things Marquette does poorly they are great at. Historically Mountain West teams don't fare well in the tournament, but I'm not sure Marquette wants to test that trend.
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Second Round Opponents
2-Seed Dream - Alabama: Take this with the caveat that playing any 2-seed isn't ideal, but what Marquette does well is suited to beat the Crimson Tide. They're the worst 2-seed defending the rim defending in transition (62% in both). They didn't run a single possession of zone this year per Synergy, don't chase teams off the line, and are abysmal on offensive putbacks (6%). Offensively, they're good-not-great on cuts (74%), off screens (59%), and on putbacks (53%) so they aren't going to massively exploit Marquette's weaknesses. While they are a good P&R team (89th), they turn it over a lot (Ranked 167th) while not turning opponents over at all (350th) so this is a team Marquette should have a possession edge over. Add in the marquee matchup of Kam Jones vs Mark Sears and I would like Marquette's chances.
2-Seed Nightmare - Tennessee: The Vols have an elite rim defense (98%) and are good guarding off screens (73%) and transition (69%). They don't chase teams off the line but are great at shutting down three point shooters (#2 rank 3PFG% D). Offensively, they are a great cutting team (86%). And while it wasn't one of our focuses above, they are also elite on baseline out-of-bounds plays (93%) which is another weakness for Marquette (9%) as anyone who watched the Dayton game will remember.
Photo by Erik Williams | USA Today Sports
3-Seed Dream - Kentucky: The Wildcats are poor defending the rim (32%) and in transition (25%). While they run a little zone, they are 1-5 in games where they play 5+ zone possessions and their zone efficiency (2%) is woeful. And while it's not as prevalent as it was with Tyler Kolek, Kentucky's defense saw more pick and roll ball handler than any other play type and were miserable (5%) defending it, which is still a place Marquette excels (90%). Offensively, they would pose problems as it would be strength on strength with their offensive pick and roll (92%) and isolation (92%), while they are a great cutting team (100%). Kentucky doesn't turn it over a ton (Ranked #37) but were 1-4 in games where they turned over 19.2+% possessions, something Marquette did in 20/31 games.
3-Seed Nightmare - Texas A&M: This would be another game that fans thought was planned by the Selection Committee. The Aggies are great defending the rim (88%), pick & pop (86%), and mix in a lot of zone (79%) with very good results (84%). Offensively, it all really comes down to rebounding. Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebound rate and second change points according to Haslametrics. They wouldn't beat Marquette with skill, but their physicality is like St. John's on steroids. It would also be a particularly bitter pill to come up short against Buzz Williams. Marquette would have to turn A&M over, turn up the pace, and turn this into a shooting contest.
14/15-Seed Dream - Anyone: While it wouldn't be unheard of for a 14-seed or 15-seed to win, any of these are preferable to anyone above. If Marquette gets to the second round against a lower seeded team, that's a dream under any circumstance.
Let's look at the updated S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 3
Mountain West: 3
Big West: 2
WCC: 2
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