Photo by Robert Willett | Raleigh News & Observer
Today our focus will again be on the bubble. After a week of reviewing resumes and considering what the Selection Committee will likely prioritize, we have made some major bubble changes. Many are the unfortunate type because some teams we'd like to see in the field (Boise State, UC Irvine) just might not have enough polish on their resumes, while other teams we'd rather not see in (North Carolina, Oklahoma) have some major advantages. Let's dig in.
Last Four Byes: 39-West Virginia, 40-Georgia, 41-Indiana, 42-San Diego State
Currently, our last at-large team comes in at #47 on the S-Curve, which means any resume metric inside the top-47 meets at-large qualification. Collectively, these four teams have 11/12 resume metrics inside the top-47, with only Indiana's SOR (49) on the outside. All of them have at least .500 records in Quadrants 1-3 with at least 3 Q1 wins and 1 Q1A win. For whatever Bracket Matrix is worth, they also all show up in at least 87/92 brackets there as of this writing. If there are bid thieves, these teams could end up in trouble, but for the moment they look fairly safe.
Last Four In: 44-Arkansas, 45-North Carolina, 46-Oklahoma, 47-Xavier
Collectively, these four teams have 10/12 resume metrics inside the top-47. The outlier is KPI for both North Carolina (50) and Xavier (59). Arkansas and Oklahoma are the two safest for selection. While Oklahoma gets knocked for their 5-12 SEC record and 1 road win, those aren't official criteria and their 13-0 non-con record along with 5 neutral court wins help offset those issues. Bracket Matrix is positive on both of these teams, with 85 including Arkansas and 66 including Oklahoma. Both also boast 5 Q1 wins and mulitple Q1A wins.
North Carolina and Xavier are a little different, mostly because of only having 1 Q1 win apiece. However, at the Top-16 reveal, we covered how SOR and WAB were the best predictors of seed, and both of these teams are inside the top-46 in those metrics. Further, they both have just 1 loss outside Q1, so while their Q1 records are poor, their winning overall records in Q1-3, solid resume metrics, and backing that up with predictive averages inside the top-40 give them enough to be selected. One other note for Xavier, they have 3 wins over projected non-bubble at-large teams (Marquette, Creighton, UConn). Bracket Matrix doesn't like these teams as much, with just 29 including Xavier and 20 including UNC, but these are the types of teams that the Selection Committee is more likely to take on historical precedent. Essentially, these teams have no fatal flaws and just enough to get them into Dayton.
First Four Out: Ohio State, Texas, Boise State, Wake Forest
Taking a step back and rethinking things, these teams definitely break into two clear categories. The fatal flaw of Q1-3 record is harmful for Ohio State (11-13) and Texas (10-13) despite having some great wins at the top of their resumes. They also both have 2/3 resume metrics outside the top-47. Ohio State is in 89/92 brackets, so it would surprise most if they are left out, but Texas shows up in just 17 on Bracket Matrix. If they win this weekend and in their conference tournament openers they might have a shot to get back in the mix, but for now they are on the outside looking in.
Boise State's biggest problem is all of their resume metrics are 52 or below. I love their wins over St. Mary's and Clemson, but I'm not sure the Committee will put them in because of those. Bracket Matrix has the Broncos in 34/92 brackets. If I were the one voting, the Broncos would be in, but in terms of predicting what the Selection Committee will do, I think they'll be out.
I was surprised Wake Forest landed this high in consideration. Having 2/3 resume metrics inside the top-47 helped. They also have a winning Q1-3 record and more Q1 wins than North Carolina or Xavier, but like UNC have just one win against a projected non-bubble at-large team. Wake is not in any of the Bracket Matrix entrants right now, but I think they still have a shot, though any bid thieves would likely end that chance. If it comes down to one win between UNC and Wake, the edge goes to UNC who is better in every team sheet metric than the Demon Deacons despite Wake's 1-point home win over the Tar Heels.
Also Considered: Nebraska, UC Irvine
We looked at more teams than these two, but these two tumbled the furthest so I wanted to address them. Nebraska is 11-13 in Q1-3, every team sheet metric is outside the top-47, and despite some nice quality wins, there just isn't enough good to outweigh the bad. They are 15-5 in Q1-3, have 1 Q1A win, and lead the nation with 13 road wins. However, WAB and SOR are both designed to equalize resumes and they are 54 or lower in each. Maybe their 43 KPI gives them a shot, but their predictive average (80.7) would be the second lowest ever included. Like Boise, I would vote for them, but based on historical precedent, I don't think the Committee will put them in without an automatic bid.
Bids Thieved: Gonzaga, VCU, Drake, UC San Diego
If we see these teams that are currently the NET leaders in their respective leagues lose in their conference tournaments, I feel good about the first three making it in. Gonzaga and Drake both have all resume metrics inside the top-47. From a seeding perspective, Gonzaga's predictive average (9.3) would push them higher up the seed line than Drake's (66.3) would but I think both of them have enough in terms of resume quality, Q1-3 records, and Q1 wins to get in. VCU has 2/3 resume metrics in the top-47 and with a 12-4 record in Q1-3 and strong predictives (28.7) I think they get in, though they might be sent to Dayton again. Ram fans may not object to that, given their history.
UC San Diego, on the other hand, I don't feel so good about. I moved them down to the 12-line today and I think if they fall in the Big West tournament, they will be in trouble. All 3 resume metrics are outside the top-47 and while they have the Q1-3 record and Q1 wins, this is the kind of team that tends to get left out. The other problem is if they lose again in the Big West Tournament, it won't be a Q1 game (UC Irvine is Q2). I strongly advise they win their automatic bid.
So that's the bubble. Here's what you can expect from Cracked Sidewalks in the next week as Selection Sunday draws closer:
March 10: Scrambled Eggs - Phil and Joe will wrap up the regular season and look ahead to the Big East Tournament.
March 12: Dreams & Nightmares - our annual piece that looks at which teams Marquette fans would most and least want to see in their pod come Selection Sunday. This piece accurately picked Vermont as a dream scenario in 2023 and Colorado as a nightmare (single possession game in the final minute).
March 15: Contingency Time - On the eve of Selection Sunday, most of the field will be set and most teams will be done playing. This should be pretty close to what our final projections will look like.
March 16: Selection Sunday - We'll provide a last update once we have a better sense of conference tournament champions, bid thieves, and any last minute changes the Selection Committee may take into account.
March 17: Scrambled Eggs: Phil and Joe are back to talk about the bracket and their expectations for the NCAA Tournament.
Here's the current S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
Mountain West: 3
WCC: 2
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