Lots of nonsense abounds in this welcome to the season podcast from Scrambled Eggs. We have some time to do a quick welcome to new fans and set the stage for the season. We channel gen Z and talk about program vibes to start the program discussion. We then talk individual player predictions before we get into overall team projection. We close out the pod with a crowd favorite, game by game predictions. Welcome to the season and enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/ra5ncv32snr63tmu/Eggs_2024_Nov_16ine4.mp3
Saturday, November 02, 2024
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
Connecticut Preview, 2024-25
Connecticut Huskies
February 1st, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / March 4th, 2024 at Gampel Pavilion
Head Coach: Dan Hurley (292-163 overall, 141-58 at UConn)
Three-Year NET Average: 9.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 8.0
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 12
Alex Karaban and UConn defeated Marquette three times in 2024
Photo by Mary Althaffer | AP Photo
Photo by Mary Althaffer | AP Photo
State of the Program
In the past two seasons, UConn is 68-11, are the defending Big East Regular Season and Tournament Champions, and...oh yeah, the two-time defending National Champions, winning twelve consecutive NCAA games by double-digits. They've done that while retaining the same coaching staff, including Hurley who turned down the Los Angeles Lakers to pursue a third straight title. The Huskies are led by likely preseason All-American Alex Karaban, though they also bring back three additional rotation players that started at least one game last year: Solo Ball, Samson Johnson, and Hassan Diarra. The staff also added a pair of proven transfers in Aidan Mahaney from St. Mary's and Tarris Reed from Michigan, along with Liam McNeeley, a top-10 recruit expected to make an impact from day one. Suffice to say, the state of the program could not be stronger, even after seeing four players picked in the NBA Draft.
Rotation
Style of Play
UConn runs a deep and complex offensive playbook with more than 150 plays that focuses on a ton of complex off-the-ball movement. They get the bulk of their looks from three (40.2% of shots) or at the rim (43.6%) but don't get a high percentage of baskets directly off the drive (4th percentile in frequency of rim attacks). Instead, their drives are designed to set up their other actions. More often than not, they will kick out for a three, find a perimeter player cutting to the run, or a big in a pick and roll. They also love to get out in transition, attacking off the rebound or made basket, which is somewhat surprising given their sub-300 average offensive possession length. UConn's players are exceptionally well drilled and while they usually have a primary ball handler (Newton the past two years) they will typically have 2-3 players on the floor that can create for themselves and others. UConn is also a good offensive rebounding team, so even if you stop the first action they are good at resetting and attacking again.
The Huskies get to their spots and convert mercilessly
Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com
On defense, UConn is aggressive at chasing teams off the arc and forcing them to go inside. If you get to the rim, Hurley's teams have been top-25 in block rate each of the past 5 years, and that shouldn't change with Johnson and Reed patrolling the middle. They challenge every shot inside and out, leading to a top-5 defensive eFG% each of the past two years. Beyond the bigs, Karaban and Diarra are both excellent defenders that will anchor the system. While the defense doesn't get the attention the offense does, the Huskies are more than capable on that end as well.
2024-25 Outlook
On paper, it seems inevitable that UConn will take a step back. After all, they lost four players to the NBA, and how can anyone keep up the relentless onslaught they have through the past two NCAA Tournaments? The last team to go to three straight Final Fours was UCLA from 2006-08, and the last team to win three straight titles was also UCLA from 1971-73 (actually 1967-73). Aidan Mahaney looks like a poor man's Cam Spencer, Liam McNeeley doesn't look like a Stephon Castle top-5 pick, and no one on this roster seems capable of replicating Tristen Newton or Donovan Clingan's contributions.
And yet, this is what we wrote last year: "Good team, yes, tourney team, most likely, but top-10 Big East title contender? Not so much." Not sure we could've been much more wrong with that take. What makes UConn's accomplishments more impressive is comparing them to the last back-to-back champions, 2006 & 2007 Florida. Billy Donovan's teams had the same starting five both years, and even their first two off the bench were the same. Hurley's 2023 team lost three starters and their top two bench options, yet managed to be unquestionably better in 2024. Until they are dethroned, UConn has to be the pick at the top of the Big East because they've earned that position.
One Man's Opinion
At this point, how can you not put UConn #1 in the Big East? Not only did they win consecutive National Titles, but they won the league by four games and took home the Big East Tournament title. They did all that despite losing three starters to the NBA. On paper, this team looks to be taking a step back from a year ago, but that was the case a year ago. Hurley and his staff have hit home runs in the portal, from the high school ranks, and through their own development the past two years. The staff is operating at an incredibly high level. It's hard to imagine them not falling back a little bit from their insanely dominant past two NCAA runs, but at this point they are the champions of every competition they've participated in since losing to Marquette at MSG on March 10, 2023. If someone wants to claim that title, go for it, but until they do, UConn has earned this position.
Tuesday, October 22, 2024
Marquette Preview, 2024-25
Marquette Golden Eagles
April 7th, 2025 at Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Head Coach: Shaka Smart (346-172 overall, 75-30 at Marquette)
Three-Year NET Average: 25.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 26.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 24
Kam Jones passed on the NBA Draft in hopes of leading Marquette to new heights
Photo from JSOnline.com
Photo from JSOnline.com
State of the Program
In 105 years of Marquette Basketball, the program reached 27 wins in a season just four times before Shaka Smart took the reins. Al McGuire did it twice (1971, 1976), Tom Crean did it in his Final Four year (2003), and Buzz Williams did it as well (2012). In the past two years, Shaka Smart has matched McGuire, setting a program record for wins while having the best two-year win total in program history. This includes a Big East regular season title, tournament title, tournament runner-up, and NCAA Sweet 16 appearance. The downside is that the two players considered most responsible for that success are now in the NBA, but Marquette does return three starters while promoting a pair of juniors to the starting lineup and adding a pair of freshmen expected to contribute. In terms of roster development, Shaka Smart's team makeup harkens back to days of yore (you know, like five years ago before we saw 1,500+ transfers per year) as they focus on internal development. Can he keep it up without Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro? That remains to be seen, but it's been a long time since there's been this much sustained optimism in Milwaukee.
Rotation
Kam Jones: The man at the top of the scouting report will be Kam Jones. At Marquette's first public practice under Shaka Smart in 2021, the coach said Jones could leave Marquette as the all-time leading scorer. While he won't get close to Markus Howard, if he repeats his scoring from last year (620 points) he would become the second Marquette player to 2,000 points. Offensively, Jones is a lethal three point shooter (40.6%) who is one of the best finishers his size at the rim (65.0%). There will be concerns about his ability to handle the point, but in a pick and roll heavy offense, Jones' pick and roll efficiency (1.025 points per possession, 90th percentile) was actually better than All-American Kolek (0.886 ppp, 74th percentile) according to Synergy. Jones' overall statline was impressive, but when Kolek was out for six games in March, Jones averaged 20.8 ppg/4.7 rpg/4.5 apg, increasing all of his primary counting stats while also increasing his usage. If Kam can be the same player for a season he was during those six games, there's a real chance he'll be an All-American and a favorite for Big East Player of the Year.
Stevie Mitchell: Mitchell is the definition of a glue guy. On offense, he does most of his damage driving to the rim where he finished at a higher rate than Jones (71.9%) albeit on lower usage. He was poor on the season from three, but that was largely because he started the season on a 3/23 clip before hitting 40.8% from beyond the arc in Big East play. He's at his best when he's turning defense into offense. Mitchell led the Big East in steal rate and is excellent in transition, averaging 1.328 ppp on transition attempts. Where he has really made his name is on the defensive end. Mitchell is a tenacious defender who will be tasked with defending the opponent's best perimeter player, but what makes him more impressive is his ability to switch onto anyone and seemingly get his hands on any even slightly errant pass. While Mitchell projects to be Marquette's shortest rotation player, he is tremendously strong and can hold his own even in the post. He won't get the press of Marquette's other players but he's integral on both sides of the ball.
During our interview last week Tyler Kolek spoke about bringing intensity to practice,
— Ryan Cassidy (@ryancassidycbb) February 4, 2023
"This year that guy is Stevie Mitchell... he's just a winning guy with all the things that he does"
Late in the game against Butler those winning habits showed up pic.twitter.com/tnubQARkwj
Chase Ross: According to Shaka Smart, Ross played the bulk of last season injured and is primed for a breakout. He's an electric athlete and produces highlight reel dunks. Ross got hurt at Seton Hall and saw his 2PFG% dip from 51.2% to 43.9%. He made up for that with a stellar 45.7% three point accuracy after the New Year. Defensively, Ross is an excellent defender who uses his quickness and length to disrupt passing lanes and stick with his man. There is definitely still room for Ross to develop, but he has NBA level athleticism and upside. It's also worth noting that Marquette played better with Ross and Kam Jones than they did with Ross and Tyler Kolek. Credit Phil Bush of Scrambled Eggs for this theory, but the numbers bear it out:
David Joplin: After a Big East Sixth Man of the Year campaign the season before, the Jopwagon became a polarizing figure, largely because he was so hot and cold. He kept Marquette in the game with 19 points against UCLA, then combined for 5 in the next two games against Kansas and Purdue. He seemed barely present at Providence, then exploded for 20/9 against Georgetown. UConn was his Kryptonite as he had a sub-100 offensive rating in all three games (including 1/13 from three), but his steady offense helped pace Marquette against Western Kentucky and Colorado on the way to the Sweet 16. Joplin does most of his offensive damage from deep taking nearly 60% of his shots beyond the arc. He started to show some ability at the rim and finally converted some dunks (after none his first two seasons). Defensively, Joplin improved visibly last season. Early in his career, his hands weren't very active and too often he would let his man get around him. He definitely plays with a higher activity level on that end (5.6% block rate the last six weeks of the season) and has added strength to better hold his position. Joplin will likely never be an elite defender, but he is a passable one.
Ben Gold: It's not often you see a 6'11" player that takes 78.0% of their shots from beyond the arc, but that's Ben Gold. Like Ross and Mitchell, his shooting improved as the season went on. Gold shot 29.6% (including a 5-game 0/12 stretch) in Marquette's first eighteen games, then scorched the nets at a 41.3% clip the rest of the way. He was also excellent at the rim, converting 82.1% of his shots, but that's with the caveat that he rarely took shots at the rim for a player his size (18.7% of his attempts). While Gold will likely do just fine on offense, where he has to answer questions are on defense. Part of that is because he's replacing Oso Ighodaro, who was a true rarity as a center that could switch 1-5 and could pick up a point guard on the perimeter or hold his own banging in the low blocks. Per hoop-explorer, Marquette was 7.5 points/100 possessions worse with Gold on the floor. Some of that is a function of how good Ighodaro was, but Gold has not displayed the lateral quickness, the effective use of length, or the incredible defensive IQ. That development will determine a lot about this team.
The Bench: Anyone close to the program has heard the name Damarius Owens being discussed since the freshmen arrived in June. Owens is a long, athletic wing who is in contention to be the first player off the bench. Reports from Marquette indicate he has starting level talent now, is a solid inside-out scorer, has great defensive length, and at the first scrimmage was even playing at the point for his team at times. It's hard to put much faith in an unknown freshman, but everyone we've talked to who has watched this team in the summer comes away raving about Owens. The known factors are Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery. Both earned spot minutes last year but will likely be needed more this season. The most likely big man off the bench is redshirt freshman Caedin Hamilton. He's definitely thicker than Gold and is expected to play more back-to-the-basket like a traditional post. Hamilton is still a developmental piece but is expected to be part of the rotation. The biggest question mark is Sean Jones. Initial injury reports put his return after the New Year. Older Marquette fans might be reminded of Junior Cadougan's freshman year, when he returned late in the year from injury but only managed to play 47 minutes scattered across 12 games. It was effectively a wasted year on a team that didn't utilize him for depth but prevented him from being able to play on the 2013-14 team that could have used another experienced guard. Quick twitch players like Jones need all of their quickness and lower body strength, so hopefully he isn't rushed back too soon. Al Amadou and Royce Parham round out the scholarship players, but it seems unlikely either play major minutes this year.
Style of Play
As far as Marquette is concerned, the only shots worth taking on offense are from three or at the rim. They rank 344th in mid-range rate by design, because despite ranking 20th in mid-range efficiency (42.2%) that is pedestrian compared to their 74th ranked rim efficiency rate (60.9%). The Golden Eagles play fast, seeking to get a look early in the shot clock before the defense is set, averaging a 9th fastest 15.3 seconds per offensive possession. The offense starts on the defensive end. The top-20 turnover rate keys the transition offense that is in the 87th percentile in efficiency (1.28 ppp). Rick Pitino compared Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro to John Stockton and Karl Malone. Their departure will likely mean a change in the offense. While there are still fine pick and roll options, no one on this team can match the sheer volume that Kolek and Ighodaro operated at. Expect less frequent pick and roll, though relatively speaking. Marquette was in the 97th percentile of PnR usage according to Synergy, so even if there's a decline in usage they'll still be in the 85th-90th percentile range. Because the cutters (1.342 ppp, 94th percentile) and rollers (1.208, 91st percentile) were so effective, this team will have to make up for that somehow. Expect a heavier dosage of three point attempts. To maintain offensive efficiency, Marquette will need to see their shooters play more like they did in the back half of the season; in the first 18 games Marquette was at 31.5% from three, in the next 18 they shot 40.8% from deep.
Marquette has a lot of high efficiency play to replace
Table from synergysports.com
Table from synergysports.com
On defense, Marquette plays aggressive, often starting with a 3/4-court press designed to take 8-10 seconds off the shot clock. That aggression is why Marquette isn't among the top tempo teams in the country as they hold teams to the second slowest defensive possession length at 19.1 seconds on average. The shortened clock is combined with active hands. One of the team goals is to get 32 deflections per game, which can be anything from a blocked shot to a steal to simply tipping a pass out of bounds. The goal is disruption, and players like Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross excel in that regard. More often than not, Marquette will be in a switching man to man. Having strong guards like Mitchell coupled with quick bigs like Oso allowed that switching, but it may be more difficult with Ben Gold in the middle. Marquette may try to protect him more and use him in drop coverage, feinting to the arc before fading back to protect the rim and counter pick and roll actions. While it's primarily a man defense, Smart does like to mix in zone, especially on crucial out-of-bounds or late-game possessions to throw teams off. They typically only run zone 3-4 possessions per game, but are excellent when they do, holding teams to 0.825 ppp, in the 87th percentile per Synergy.
2024-25 Outlook
This year is a huge test for Shaka Smart's roster building model. Since his first year, Smart has primarily built through the high school ranks while everyone else is focusing on the transfer portal and NIL-fused bidding wars. However much of that success came on the backs of Olivier Maxence-Prosper, Tyler Kolek, and Oso Ighodaro, all of whom are in the NBA now. That shows the staff's ability to develop talent as none of the three were on NBA radars in the summer of 2021, but the question is if that was catching lightning in a bottle or building a form of renewable energy that will continue beyond their departures. I caveat this with the admission this is a Marquette blog and those of us involved in creating it definitely have a fan investment, but I think this team can be just as good or even better than the teams of the past two years. Jones is an elite scorer who showed when Kolek was injured that he can successfully play the point. Mitchell and Ross may be role-players, but both are efficient on both ends. This team also has a more proven bench as both Norman and Lowery earned meaningful minutes last year while the team dealt with injuries to Mitchell, Ross, Ighodaro, and Kolek. One of the other constant questions about the ability for teams to become elite is NBA talent, and while two players left for the NBA, Jones looks like he is next while Ross and Owens both seem to have the length and athleticism that will earn them a shot at that level, perhaps not next summer but in the coming years.
Keep Owens' name in mind as a potential significant piece
Photo from Instagram | @damar1us
Photo from Instagram | @damar1us
I expect the offense to work because as we pointed out in the summer of 2022, it's not volume scoring but whether you have efficient shooters taking the shots that the departed players took. Gold may not take the same shots Oso took, but he is efficient wherever he shoots from. Ross may not match Kolek on his own, but there are plenty of options and the second half shooting indicates his contributions are replaceable. On defense, before arriving at Marquette, Smart had a top-40 defense for 10 straight years and since arriving he has improved Marquette's defense from #83 the year before he arrived to #55, #43, and #17 last year. With 18 years of experience in the starting lineup, it's safe to say these guys know what the staff expects and will be able to execute.
One Man's Opinion
Placing Marquette at #2 in the Big East comes from a combination of factors. First is the belief in Kam Jones and his ability to be the best player in the Big East. Second is faith in the development the coaching staff has displayed in sending three players to the NBA Draft in the past two years. Third is that a roster based on continuity will work in a transfer era. While Marquette may not have the flashy new names of programs like St. John's and Xavier, everyone in the program knows their role and has clear expectations, which will allow them to start the season at a more comfortable level. But it's not just the roster consistency, it's also the quality. Mitchell, Ross, and Joplin have all shown the ability to step up. Gold has been groomed for this role for two years and provides a unique defensive challenge to opponents. And the bench is a mixture of talent and experience with the bulk of them having time in the system. Too often, people focus on what a team lost and the transfers that will replace them, but ss Trilly Donovan likes to say, sometimes the best gets are the ones you already have, and Marquette has that in spades.
Monday, October 21, 2024
St. John's Preview, 2024-25
St. John's Red Storm
February 4th, 2025 at Madison Square Garden / March 8th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum
Head Coach: Rick Pitino (731-303 overall, 20-13 at St. John's)
Three-Year NET Average: 64.7
Three-Year kenpom Average: 52.7
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 15
R.J. Luis leads a new-look St. John's roster
Photo by Chris Hagan | Rumble in the Garden
State of the Program
Rick Pitino overhauled the St. John's roster in his first season in Queens, bringing back only big man Joel Soriano and surrounding him with stud mid-major players. Through mid-January, it seemed to be working as the Red Storm surged to a 12-4 (4-1) record. That came to a crashing halt as St. John's lost eight of their next ten games, leading Pitino to tear into his team, criticizing their effort and defense. It was the offense that responded. From that speech on, St. John's went on an offensive tear, posting the #1 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking in the country according to T-Rank. Despite a 6-game winning streak, they fell short against UConn in the Big East Tournament semifinals and missed the NCAA Tournament. Soriano graduated, as did the bulk of their transfer class, including Chris Ledlum, Daniss Jenkins, and Jordan Dingle. Pitino again hit the portal, bringing in the #4 transfer class according to 247 Sports, headlined by the back court duo of Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith. Pitino has optimism back in Queens, but is it more tangible than last year's brand of promise?
Rotation
The Johnnies will have a dual-point guard attack. Deivon Smith is an elite shot creator, ranking #3 in the nation in assist rate while excelling at getting to the rim. He doesn't take a ton of outside shots, but he has great long range accuracy (40.8%) and is in the 86th percentile on catch-and-shoot opportunities according to Synergy. Kadary Richmond comes across the river from Seton Hall where he was First Team All-Big East. Richmond is a power guard, using his physicality to challenge shots and create turnovers on the defensive end while bullying his way into the lane and using his height and vision to find shooters on offense. According to hoop-explorer, Seton Hall's adjusted points/100 possessions was 8.4 p/100 better on offense and 12.1 p/100 better on defense, a staggering 20.5 p/100 better when he was on the court despite relatively anemic shooting numbers. Simeon Wilcher was a five-star recruit who struggled to get on the court as a freshman, but has earned rave reviews from Pitino since late last year when he called him "the future of the program." R.J. Luis will hope to step up to a bigger role after finishing the season strong. He posted 12.5 ppg/4.9 rpg in the last ten games of the season and is learning to use his length and athleticism to impact both ends of the floor. Zuby Ejiofor is the other returning player that is expected to start. He does the bulk of his work inside and excels on the offensive glass, though if he's not ready USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu provides additional length and experience. Aaron Scott will likely anchor the bench or interchange with Smith or Luis as a spot starter, providing experience and shooting, though also some bad midrange tendencies (35.2 MR% on 41.0% of his attempts). Brady Dunlap and freshman Jaiden Glover provide additional options off the bench.
Style of Play
Rick Pitino is known for a dribble-drive motion offense. Last year we expected a lot of driving and a lot of kicking to open shooters, with the bigs crashing the boards and cleaning up misses. The only part of that we got was Joel Soriano crashing the glass. 13.1% of their offensive attempts came on shots directly off an offensive rebound, which was tops in the country. There was very little dribble, very little drive, and a whole lot of inefficient shots in the midrange. The departure of Daniss Jenkins, Naheim Alleyne and Jordan Dingle, all of whom were more likely to pull up in the midrange than try to get to the rim, should help. This is underscored by the additions of Smith and Richmond, as well as the expanded role for Luis, all of whom love to attack the rim and clearly understand the value of getting shots in close. The chart below shows the frequency of midrange vs at the rim rates and field goal percentages to show how much better suited this roster is to the game plan. Expect this offense to look a lot more like what Pitino likes to run. The biggest question will be long-range shooting. Scott is a proven shooter, but he's really the only one in the rotation. Smith was great last year at 40.8% but before that was a career 27.3% shooter and had never reached 28.0% in a season. Richmond and Luis will shoot from deep, but neither are tremendously accurate. Pitino's Iona teams relied a lot more on threes and rim attempts and this year's St. John's roster will likely give him the ability to go back to that focus.
St. John's replacing high mid-range usage with high at the rim usage should improve efficiency
Stats from hoop-explorer.com
Stats from hoop-explorer.com
Pitino's hallmark has been his defense. Relative to his competition, Pitino had 10 straight seasons finishing no worse than 3rd in conference defense (and the only year he was third in league he was 8th in the nation). Suffice to say, last year's 6th in the Big East rank was less than ideal. Pitino ripped his defense after losses to Dayton, to Boston College, to Marquette, and most famously to Seton Hall when he said "this has been the most unenjoyable experience I've had since I've been coaching." Ultimately, this was likely a roster construction problem. St. John's had a plodding big man with the footspeed of a traffic cone in the middle and a mid-major roster that excelled scoring but gave it back easily on the other end because they simply didn't have the athleticism or defensive IQ. This team should be different. Pitino's teams like to play high-pressure defense. They don't press as much as he once did, but they will aggressively chase teams off the line and use their physicality all over the court. Richmond is a matchup problem on this end of the court as well and all of their rotation players will be aggressive in hunting steals. Pitino's teams also are excellent protecting the rim and this team will be no exception. To beat them, teams have to take advantage of when St. John's overplays the ball and be tenacious inside because they will give up offensive rebounds.
2024-25 Outlook
The biggest concern about St. John's is that the inmates ran the asylum. Pitino put together a team that took bad shots on offense and couldn't guard on defense. Despite that, they nearly made it to the NCAA Tournament and finished #21 at kenpom, their highest rank since Mike Jarvis took them to the Elite 8 in 1999. That should answer any questions about whether Pitino can still coach. And while he had mid-major all-stars last year, his reinforcements this year were true high-major performers. Richmond is a Big East Player of the Year candidate, Smith excels at creating late when the play breaks down (94th percentile in last 4 seconds of shot clock per Synergy), Luis and Scott are the kind of two-way wings Pitino needs, and his front court duo of Ejiofor and Iwuchukwu are more mobile and team oriented. Historically, Pitino is a wizard in his second season on the job. Just look at the chart below.
St. John's has the roster to run Pitino's offense, has capable and willing defenders, and a coach who excels at the quick turnaround. This team should be significantly improved, spend the bulk of the season ranked in the top-25 with dark horse Big East champs potential, and could find themselves in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament or beyond if things really break right.
One Man's Opinion
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Last year we picked St. John's third in the Big East, and while they didn't live up to that, they were fourth in the league in adjusted efficiency. Well, here we go picking the Johnnies #3 in the Big East again. Pitino has a roster that suits what he wants to do and the more I look at what they did last year despite a limited roster, the more I believe in what this team can be. Pitino now has a high-major back court and much better quality depth across the board. Smith and Richmond could be elite together and the defensive length and athleticism has me convinced there will be significant improvement on that end. This is a team that should have the NCAA Tournament as a minimum expectation and are viable contenders to UConn's Big East throne and have the potential to reach the second or third weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Thursday, October 17, 2024
Creighton Preview, 2024-25
Creighton Bluejays
January 3rd, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 8th, 2025 at CHI Health Center
Head Coach: Greg McDermott (605-355 overall, 325-160 at Creighton)
Three-Year NET Average: 26.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 24.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 13
Ryan Kalkbrenner is the first three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year since 1992
Photo by Brad J. Williams | White & Blue Review
State of the Program
On The Office, Andy Bernard once said "I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you left them." If Creighton fans don't know it, they are squarely in their good old days. Greg McDermott guided Creighton to second place in the Big East and their third Sweet 16 in four years. McDermott has 11 wins in the NCAA Tournament at Creighton, which is more than the program had in its history (10) before he was hired. Their 7 NCAA bids since the Big East reformation are second only to Villanova.
Rotation
Creighton leaned heavily on their top-6
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
If Creighton had a problem last year, it was bench depth. Farabello was the only bench player to average more than 9 mpg. The addition of Arizona State transfer Neal should give them a capable sixth man, while Isaac Traudt played legit minutes early in the season and Jasen Green came on late to give them some bench experience. The addition of Jackson McAndrew, Creighton's highest ever ranked recruit, and top-100 guard Larry Johnson give McDermott additional bench options. This year, the problem might be too many mouths to feed as there are probably no fewer than 5 and possibly more players expecting to at least be in the rotation come conference play.
Style of Play
Creighton's offense is a thing of beauty. The players are in constant motion, with McDermott putting multiple shooters on the floor around his big man. They were top-10 in three point rate, though that may dip with the departure of Scheierman. Creighton doesn't get to the rim often, but because of Kalkbrenner they are lethal when they do. Their biggest problem last year was how often they used mid-range shots, but that was almost exclusively Trey Alexander, who took 39.2% of his shots in mid-range. He's the perfect example of why mid-range shots are a bad idea. Alexander took a high volume there and his 47.5% conversion rate in mid-range was in the top-100 nationally, so pretty good. Meanwhile, he was sub-1,000 in his conversion rate at the rim, but still converted 54.9% of his attempts when he got there. Compared to the rest of the country, his usage of mid-range was high as was his conversion rate while his usage at the rim was low, as was his rate. However he was 7.5% more likely to score when he got to the rim. The below chart demonstrates why coaches are discouraging mid-range shots.
Back to the offense, if Isaacs rebounds to form and Zugic can be a deep threat, expect the threes to continue flying. Creighton's guards and wings will be in constant motion and when they miss, Kalkbrenner is a one-man wrecking crew on the offensive glass. And while Creighton isn't always regarded as an up-tempo team because they don't force turnovers, that really isn't the case. They were in the 74th percentile in transition opportunities and their 1.34 points per possession was in the 97th percentile. They will look to push off made shots or rebounds when the opportunity is there and are comfortable both in transition and in the half-court. In terms of half-court actions, the drive and kick is where it starts but Kalkbrenner is a lethal rim roller. Creighton is in the 99th percentile in terms of big man cut & roll frequency and 97th percentile in efficiency. That said, the only frequent finishers at the rim are Creighton's bigs. Of their returning perimeter players, Isaac Traudt took the highest percentage of shots at the rim at just 14.5%.
Defensively, Kalkbrenner is the key to everything Creighton does. McDermott never had a top-40 defense prior to Kalkbrenner's arrival, but they've been 32nd or better each of the past four years. Kalkbrenner erases shots at the rim, allowing their perimeter defenders to aggressively chase opponents off the three-point line. They've ranked top-10 nationally in defensive three-point rate each of the past two years. Not only that, but they do all that without fouling as Creighton has been no worse than 4th nationally in defensive free throw rate the past three years. Perhaps the most ridiculous stat last year is that Creighton was dead last in opponent free throw percentage at 78.8%. That's not a controllable factor, but despite teams shooting free throws better against Creighton than any other team, the Jays also allowed the lowest percentage of opponent points at the free throw line. The reason for that is because they foul so seldom that teams just don't get enough opportunities. What does all that mean? Creighton doesn't give up open looks from three and doesn't foul, which means opponents need to get into the lane to score, where Kalkbrenner swallows up shot attempts. Their one defensive weakness is that Creighton doesn't force turnovers, so teams will generally be able to run their offense, but it's advised to score on that first shot because they don't give up many second chances.
Creighton's defense has been excellent since Kalkbrenner arrived
Chart from kenpom.com
2024-25 Outlook
Returning three starters from a top-15 team that went to the Sweet 16 is clearly a strong step in the right direction. The downside for Creighton is what they lost. Scheierman and Alexander accounted for 44.8% of the Jays scoring and 45.9% of their three point makes. Both were integral to the offense and their shared ability to get to their spots and create looks out of nothing was a massive part of Creighton's top-10 offense. Will Pop Isaacs be able to replace that type of production? It seems unlikely. Fedor Zugic might be the answer in that regard. He is already literally a pro (there are questions as to what class he will enroll in or if he will even be eligible) and looks the part on film, but coming over from Europe is a big adjustment and it's a lot to ask anyone to replace the gravity of a Scheierman or Alexander. However even if the offense takes a step back, with Kalkbrenner anchoring the middle and Ashworth running the point, they're almost certain to be a top-25 offense again. The defense will likely be at a top-25 level as well, simply because Kalkbrenner gives the rest of the team so much freedom and they still have the length to disrupt the perimeter. Creighton opens with five home games before heading to Vegas for the Players Era Festival. They'll use those to figure things out and expect this to be a Big East contender once again, and if things go right, a team with Final Four potential.
One Man's Opinion
I'm sure picking Creighton as #4 in the Big East will seem like a slight to Creighton fans, but it's less about what I think of Creighton and more what I think of the top of the Big East. This team is a Big East title contender and even if they don't get there could be #4 in the league and a 3-seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. The positives are that Ashworth and Kalkbrenner are an excellent bookend 1/5 combo. There are a couple more reasons for doubts than the teams I have in the top-3. Will Zugic live up to the hype and what will his eligibility picture look like? While I couldn't stand Trey Alexander's love of inefficient shots, will Pop Isaacs be able to increase his own efficiency to match Alexander's production? Will the bench be able to provide more than spot minutes? If Creighton can answer these questions, they could end up on the top of the Big East mountain and a Final Four isn't at all out of the question.
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Xavier Preview, 2024-25
Xavier Musketeers
December 21st, 2024 at Cintas Center / January 18th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum
Head Coach: Sean Miller (465-184 overall, 163-75 at Xavier)
Three-Year NET Average: 41.0
Three-Year kenpom Average: 41.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 37
Returning to the NCAA Tournament is the goal for Dayvion McKnight & Xavier
Photo by Sam Greene | The Cincinnati Enquirer
Photo by Sam Greene | The Cincinnati Enquirer
State of the Program
While the first year of Sean Miller's second run at Xavier was a dream return to relevance for Musketeer fans, finishing second in the Big East, making the Big East Tournament final, and reaching the Sweet 16, last year had to be just as much a nightmare. Expected front court starters Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter both suffered season ending injuries before the season started. That was compounded with a rough non-conference that included buy game losses to Oakland and Delaware. Their Big East performance was the definition of middle of the pack. They went 0-6 against the league's top tier (UConn, Creighton, Marquette), 4-0 against the bottom (Georgetown, DePaul), and split the series with everyone else, finishing 9-11 in the league. The ramshackle front court reserves that replaced Freemantle and Hunter are all gone, as are the top two scorers in Quincy Olivari and Desmond Claude. Incoming is a highly regarded transfer class that includes four mid-major double-digit scorers along with a pair of high-major role players.
Rotation
Dayvion McKnight was perfectly comfortable adjusting to the Big East. He excelled at running the offense and creating for others while being a reliable catch-and-shoot option at the perimeter. He'll be helped by Dante Maddox, who does very well in transition and hitting open threes. The three-man back court is rounded out by Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell, another excellent shooter who can also get to the rim. All three of the guards are very good in pick and roll ball handler situations, so expect this to be a fun, active offense that's constantly creating good looks. Freemantle missed last season but is reportedly healthy. He'll likely be the roller who finishes looks at the rim, but can also step out to the arc. He will likely need to play in the middle some as well simply due to a lack of size. Up front, Xavier needs John Hugley to be healthy. Hugley is a physical big that has struggled with injuries. The plan was for Lassina Traore to start and platoon at center, but Traore is out for the year, which puts the pressure on Oklahoma transfer Hugley. When he's on the floor, he is a reliable finisher inside, a floor stretching option, and is a solid positional defender. Marcus Foster is an excellent rebounding guard who gives offensive punch off the bench while Dailyn Swain is a high-level athlete getting some NBA Draft buzz, but will probably need to show he can be a reliable finisher from three or at the rim before he realizes that hype. Trey Green will likely be pressed into minutes, but is most likely to just spell the guards.
News: Sean Miller announces Xavier big man Lassina Traore is out for the season with a knee injury. Miller: “Lassina was a starter on this year’s team. He emerged to be our team’s best rebounder, low post defender and shot blocker.” A tough preseason blow for the Musketeers.
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) October 14, 2024
Style of Play
Xavier got out in transition A LOT. 20.5% of their plays were in transition, which was in the 91st percentile, and even more incredible was they did this despite a sub-250 defensive turnover rate. This was a team that was looking to attack off a miss, a rebound, or a made basket. When they did get into their half court offense, they were a pick and roll heavy team, something that will likely be even more prominent with this group. There will likely be two main differences with this team. First, expect more success when the big men cut to the basket. Last year, they were in the 3rd percentile in scoring efficiency on those plays, down from the 67th percentile with Freemantle the year before. Second, despite the loss of Olivari, expect more kicking out to open shooters. Maddox and Conwell are both high volume shot makers and this trio will create a lot of looks.
The defensive end is where Miller has had more questions than answers so far, and none of the additions are guys who have ever excelled on defense. They rarely come out of man and the preference is not to switch on ball screens. Players are instructed to always play with hands up and to take big steps when challenging shots to maximize the impact of the challenge. The problem was execution. As good as Xavier was in pick and roll on offense, they were just as bad shutting it down on defense. This led to a high rim rate, a big part of why Xavier was 9th in the Big East in eFG%. In Miller's first two years, Xavier simply hasn't had a defensive calling card. They don't turn teams over, fail to disrupt passing lanes, don't control the glass, they are simply a mediocre, beatable team on defense. Xavier is going to put up points, but they will give opponents the chance to put them right back up in return.
2024-25 Outlook
This team reminds me a lot of the 2022-23 Xavier team that Sean Miller had in the Sweet 16. They have a wealth of capable back court scorers who fit Miller's offensive plan, a versatile finisher at the four, and enough quality at center to provide some offensive punch and paint protection. The problem was they could only play one way, which was fast, and were porous on defense so they had to keep scoring to win because they couldn't get stops. All three guards are mid-major up-transfers, and Xavier has the shortest 1-3 in the Big East. They are going to be challenged by bigger, stronger players on a nightly basis. Up front, Freemantle was always better known for his offense than defense while Hugley needs to prove he's healthy for the first time since 2022. Even with Traore, rim protection and front court defense was going to be a struggle, but once again Xavier has a lack of depth in the front court. There will be nights when Xavier gets the win simply because their shooters get hot and the opponent can't score enough to keep up, but unless the defense improves in ways this roster doesn't seem capable of on paper, they will remain a team that is competing for a NCAA bid rather than a Big East title.
One Man's Opinion
I love Xavier's offensive potential. They should be able to score with anyone and if the back court fits as well as Miller's previous mid-major adds (Souley Boum, Quincy Olivari) they will be able to keep up with anyone in the Big East or the country on their night. But I hate what their defense looks likely to be, which is why I have them #5 in the Big East, and that was before they lost starting center Traore for the season. It's a small back court with slow-footed bigs and not much depth up front. Whether you want to compare them to 2023 Xavier or 2024 St. John's, they just look like a team that will compete but will need to outscore teams to beat them, and on nights when the scoring falls off or the defense can't get stops, they'll come up short. I also have serious reservations about the long-term roster construction. They have four starters who will not be able to return and four more bench players in the same situation. Is Sean Miller planning to be back in 2025-26? This roster certainly doesn't look like it. With Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan all filling this past offseason I'm not sure where he might be looking to go, but this is not the roster one builds if they are focused on anything more than the next 6 months.
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Butler Preview, 2024-25
Butler Bulldogs
December 18th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / January 28th, 2025 at Hinkle Fieldhouse
Head Coach: Thad Matta (471-187 overall, 56-41 at Butler)
Three-Year NET Average: 105.3
Three-Year kenpom Average: 100.3
Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 76
Pierre Brooks' 14 points led Butler in their upset win over Marquette
Photo by Patrick McDermott | Getty Sports
Photo by Patrick McDermott | Getty Sports
State of the Program
2024 was a significant improvement for Thad Matta and Butler. After some writers picked them to finish last in the league, they instead improved their kenpom ranking by 58 spots over the previous year and flirted with the bubble into February. Their improvement included wins over tournament teams Boise State, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Marquette. The offseason was a mixed bag as they saw starting guards Posh Alexander and DJ Davis both leave via transfer while starting big Jalen Thomas graduated. They brought in Kolby King from Tulane and Jamie Kaiser from Maryland to bolster the back court while Patrick McCaffrey from Iowa gives them some front court depth. Butler also managed to get Jahmyl Telfort back from the NBA Draft pool while Finley Bizjack entered the transfer portal but elected to return, setting the Bulldogs up for the Trilly Donovan adage "sometimes the best get is the one that's already on your roster." There are certainly reasons for optimism as Thad Matta enters year three.
Rotation
Style of Play
Offensively, Matta largely flipped the script last year. His team played more up-tempo, excelling at getting to the rim or kicking out off a drive. When they managed to complete those plays, they did well, but settled far too often for mid-range shots. That should be mitigated by the departure of Jalen Thomas, who was top-30 in mid-range attempt rate. Beyond the arc, Butler is great at creating catch-and-shoot situations. They rarely (2.6 attempts/100 possessions) pull up for jumpers from three, instead using either drive and kick or pick and pop actions. Butler got assists on 91.6% of their three-point attempts. The departure of Alexander and Davis, Butler's top two turnover creators, could lead to a slower offense, but expect them still to run heavy on driving actions that are more likely to finish at the rim or result in open threes. Matta likes to run multiple shooters around a big and this roster fits that well, and don't be surprised to see some five-out from this Butler offense if they swing McCaffrey or Kapke to the middle.
On the defensive end, Matta's teams rarely foul. Both of his Butler teams have been top-10 in defensive free throw rate. The problem with that lack of physicality is they let teams get to the rim too often, ranking 224th in rim attempt rate and 228th in FG% at the rim. When you let teams get to the rim often and convert when they get there, it's no surprise their defense ranked 9th in the Big East, ahead of only Georgetown and DePaul. His best defenses have been man-to-man, ball-pressure defenses that are aggressive without fouling. The problem is even with Alexander and Davis, Butler ranked #250 in defensive turnover rate. It seems unlikely their replacements will perform better in that regard. That leaves the question of what Butler's defensive identity will be. They want to pressure the ball but don't have the quick hands to do that. They don't have the lateral quickness to keep teams away from the rim and don't have the shot-blockers to serve as enforcers when drivers get through. It's possible that Matta simply doesn't have the level of talent he needs to execute the defense he wants to run.
2024-25 Outlook
Davis and Thomas are big losses, but it's entirely possible the departure of Posh Alexander is addition by subtraction. He's not a great offensive player and on defense his desire to pursue steals comes at the expense of holding defensive position. There's no true point guard on the roster, but King, Bizjack, and Telfort are all capable of creating for others and Brooks is a legitimate all-Big East contender. Their non-con has winnable opportunities (SMU, Northwestern, UNLV/Mississippi St, Wisconsin) with only one game that can be chalked up as a loss today (at Houston). This won't be a great offensive or defensive team, but they have experience both on and off the court. Matta seems to have this team pointed in the right direction and while they won't likely compete for a Big East title, they could be scrappy enough to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.
One Man's Opinion
I picked Butler last a year ago and won't be making that mistake again. I'm putting them at #6 in the Big East. This is a team with bubble potential and I think it's more likely than not they realize that. It will come down primarily to Matta, but he had last year's team in the mix for a bid into mid-February before their late collapse. Posh Alexander's departure is addition by subtraction. Losing DJ Davis' offense and floor-spacing hurts, but I think Matta can get King, Kaiser, and McCaffrey to offset that loss. This won't be an exciting team, and they'll probably win some games ugly, but Thad is building them back to respectability.
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