Creighton Preview, 2024-25

Creighton Bluejays

January 3rd, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 8th, 2025 at CHI Health Center

Head Coach: Greg McDermott (605-355 overall, 325-160 at Creighton)

Three-Year NET Average: 26.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 24.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 13

Ryan Kalkbrenner is the first three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year since 1992

Photo by Brad J. Williams | White & Blue Review

State of the Program

On The Office, Andy Bernard once said "I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you left them." If Creighton fans don't know it, they are squarely in their good old days. Greg McDermott guided Creighton to second place in the Big East and their third Sweet 16 in four years. McDermott has 11 wins in the NCAA Tournament at Creighton, which is more than the program had in its history (10) before he was hired. Their 7 NCAA bids since the Big East reformation are second only to Villanova.

2023-24 was a season where Creighton found themselves in the AP Poll 19 of 20 weeks and were consistently viewed as one of the top teams in the league, even if UConn and Marquette got more ink spilled about them. That team was led by first-team All-Big East Baylor Scheierman and second-team members Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner. Of those three, only Kalkbrenner is back. Sixth man Francisco Farabello also exhausted his eligibility. In response, McDermott brought in a pair of high-major double-digit scorers in Pop Isaacs and Jamiya Neal while adding a trio of heralded freshmen. This is again a team that should be competing at the top of the Big East.

Rotation

Steven Ashworth proved a capable replacement for Ryan Nembhard, leading Creighton to a top-10 offense and their highest Adjusted Offensive Rating score since the 2014 Doug McDermott team according to kenpom. Despite being a mediocre defender, Creighton was 14.2 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor than off. He's joined by Texas Tech transfer Pop Isaacs, who had a down year in terms of efficiency but was integral to Grant McCasland's first-year success. He is best as a spot-up shooter, though his shooting percentages fell off as he played hurt the entire year. Expect him to return to form in McDermott's offense. Fedor Zugic is a freshman on paper, but that is a dubious categorization. The 20-year-old has been playing professionally in Europe since 2018, appearing in over 200 games, most recently for BG Göttingen in Germany's top league. Mason Miller returns as a starter but was clearly the fifth man of that group and will likely be pressed for minutes by numerous bench contributors. The star of the show will be Ryan Kalkbrenner, the first three-time Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East since Alonzo Mourning. Kalkbrenner excels not only at protecting the rim, but using his length to alter passing lanes. What's even more impressive is his ability to stay on the floor as Kalkbrenner never had more than 3 fouls in a game last year and in 134 appearances for Creighton has NEVER fouled out of a game. Offensively, he is a destroyer at the rim (76.7% of his shots come at the rim, converting at a 73.1% rate) but also has the ability to step out on occasion.

Creighton leaned heavily on their top-6
 Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com

If Creighton had a problem last year, it was bench depth. Farabello was the only bench player to average more than 9 mpg. The addition of Arizona State transfer Neal should give them a capable sixth man, while Isaac Traudt played legit minutes early in the season and Jasen Green came on late to give them some bench experience. The addition of Jackson McAndrew, Creighton's highest ever ranked recruit, and top-100 guard Larry Johnson give McDermott additional bench options. This year, the problem might be too many mouths to feed as there are probably no fewer than 5 and possibly more players expecting to at least be in the rotation come conference play.

Style of Play

Creighton's offense is a thing of beauty. The players are in constant motion, with McDermott putting multiple shooters on the floor around his big man. They were top-10 in three point rate, though that may dip with the departure of Scheierman. Creighton doesn't get to the rim often, but because of Kalkbrenner they are lethal when they do. Their biggest problem last year was how often they used mid-range shots, but that was almost exclusively Trey Alexander, who took 39.2% of his shots in mid-range. He's the perfect example of why mid-range shots are a bad idea. Alexander took a high volume there and his 47.5% conversion rate in mid-range was in the top-100 nationally, so pretty good. Meanwhile, he was sub-1,000 in his conversion rate at the rim, but still converted 54.9% of his attempts when he got there. Compared to the rest of the country, his usage of mid-range was high as was his conversion rate while his usage at the rim was low, as was his rate. However he was 7.5% more likely to score when he got to the rim. The below chart demonstrates why coaches are discouraging mid-range shots.

Back to the offense, if Isaacs rebounds to form and Zugic can be a deep threat, expect the threes to continue flying. Creighton's guards and wings will be in constant motion and when they miss, Kalkbrenner is a one-man wrecking crew on the offensive glass. And while Creighton isn't always regarded as an up-tempo team because they don't force turnovers, that really isn't the case. They were in the 74th percentile in transition opportunities and their 1.34 points per possession was in the 97th percentile. They will look to push off made shots or rebounds when the opportunity is there and are comfortable both in transition and in the half-court. In terms of half-court actions, the drive and kick is where it starts but Kalkbrenner is a lethal rim roller. Creighton is in the 99th percentile in terms of big man cut & roll frequency and 97th percentile in efficiency. That said, the only frequent finishers at the rim are Creighton's bigs. Of their returning perimeter players, Isaac Traudt took the highest percentage of shots at the rim at just 14.5%.

Defensively, Kalkbrenner is the key to everything Creighton does. McDermott never had a top-40 defense prior to Kalkbrenner's arrival, but they've been 32nd or better each of the past four years. Kalkbrenner erases shots at the rim, allowing their perimeter defenders to aggressively chase opponents off the three-point line. They've ranked top-10 nationally in defensive three-point rate each of the past two years. Not only that, but they do all that without fouling as Creighton has been no worse than 4th nationally in defensive free throw rate the past three years. Perhaps the most ridiculous stat last year is that Creighton was dead last in opponent free throw percentage at 78.8%. That's not a controllable factor, but despite teams shooting free throws better against Creighton than any other team, the Jays also allowed the lowest percentage of opponent points at the free throw line. The reason for that is because they foul so seldom that teams just don't get enough opportunities. What does all that mean? Creighton doesn't give up open looks from three and doesn't foul, which means opponents need to get into the lane to score, where Kalkbrenner swallows up shot attempts. Their one defensive weakness is that Creighton doesn't force turnovers, so teams will generally be able to run their offense, but it's advised to score on that first shot because they don't give up many second chances.

Creighton's defense has been excellent since Kalkbrenner arrived

Chart from kenpom.com

2024-25 Outlook

Returning three starters from a top-15 team that went to the Sweet 16 is clearly a strong step in the right direction. The downside for Creighton is what they lost. Scheierman and Alexander accounted for 44.8% of the Jays scoring and 45.9% of their three point makes. Both were integral to the offense and their shared ability to get to their spots and create looks out of nothing was a massive part of Creighton's top-10 offense. Will Pop Isaacs be able to replace that type of production? It seems unlikely. Fedor Zugic might be the answer in that regard. He is already literally a pro (there are questions as to what class he will enroll in or if he will even be eligible) and looks the part on film, but coming over from Europe is a big adjustment and it's a lot to ask anyone to replace the gravity of a Scheierman or Alexander. However even if the offense takes a step back, with Kalkbrenner anchoring the middle and Ashworth running the point, they're almost certain to be a top-25 offense again. The defense will likely be at a top-25 level as well, simply because Kalkbrenner gives the rest of the team so much freedom and they still have the length to disrupt the perimeter. Creighton opens with five home games before heading to Vegas for the Players Era Festival. They'll use those to figure things out and expect this to be a Big East contender once again, and if things go right, a team with Final Four potential.

One Man's Opinion

I'm sure picking Creighton as #4 in the Big East will seem like a slight to Creighton fans, but it's less about what I think of Creighton and more what I think of the top of the Big East. This team is a Big East title contender and even if they don't get there could be #4 in the league and a 3-seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. The positives are that Ashworth and Kalkbrenner are an excellent bookend 1/5 combo. There are a couple more reasons for doubts than the teams I have in the top-3. Will Zugic live up to the hype and what will his eligibility picture look like? While I couldn't stand Trey Alexander's love of inefficient shots, will Pop Isaacs be able to increase his own efficiency to match Alexander's production? Will the bench be able to provide more than spot minutes? If Creighton can answer these questions, they could end up on the top of the Big East mountain and a Final Four isn't at all out of the question.

Xavier Preview, 2024-25

Xavier Musketeers

December 21st, 2024 at Cintas Center / January 18th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Sean Miller (465-184 overall, 163-75 at Xavier)

Three-Year NET Average: 41.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 41.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 37

Returning to the NCAA Tournament is the goal for Dayvion McKnight & Xavier
 Photo by Sam Greene | The Cincinnati Enquirer

State of the Program

While the first year of Sean Miller's second run at Xavier was a dream return to relevance for Musketeer fans, finishing second in the Big East, making the Big East Tournament final, and reaching the Sweet 16, last year had to be just as much a nightmare. Expected front court starters Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter both suffered season ending injuries before the season started. That was compounded with a rough non-conference that included buy game losses to Oakland and Delaware. Their Big East performance was the definition of middle of the pack. They went 0-6 against the league's top tier (UConn, Creighton, Marquette), 4-0 against the bottom (Georgetown, DePaul), and split the series with everyone else, finishing 9-11 in the league. The ramshackle front court reserves that replaced Freemantle and Hunter are all gone, as are the top two scorers in Quincy Olivari and Desmond Claude. Incoming is a highly regarded transfer class that includes four mid-major double-digit scorers along with a pair of high-major role players.

Rotation

Dayvion McKnight was perfectly comfortable adjusting to the Big East. He excelled at running the offense and creating for others while being a reliable catch-and-shoot option at the perimeter. He'll be helped by Dante Maddox, who does very well in transition and hitting open threes. The three-man back court is rounded out by Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell, another excellent shooter who can also get to the rim. All three of the guards are very good in pick and roll ball handler situations, so expect this to be a fun, active offense that's constantly creating good looks. Freemantle missed last season but is reportedly healthy. He'll likely be the roller who finishes looks at the rim, but can also step out to the arc. He will likely need to play in the middle some as well simply due to a lack of size. Up front, Xavier needs John Hugley to be healthy. Hugley is a physical big that has struggled with injuries. The plan was for Lassina Traore to start and platoon at center, but Traore is out for the year, which puts the pressure on Oklahoma transfer Hugley. When he's on the floor, he is a reliable finisher inside, a floor stretching option, and is a solid positional defender. Marcus Foster is an excellent rebounding guard who gives offensive punch off the bench while Dailyn Swain is a high-level athlete getting some NBA Draft buzz, but will probably need to show he can be a reliable finisher from three or at the rim before he realizes that hype. Trey Green will likely be pressed into minutes, but is most likely to just spell the guards.

News: Sean Miller announces Xavier big man Lassina Traore is out for the season with a knee injury. Miller: “Lassina was a starter on this year’s team. He emerged to be our team’s best rebounder, low post defender and shot blocker.” A tough preseason blow for the Musketeers.

— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) October 14, 2024

Style of Play

Xavier got out in transition A LOT. 20.5% of their plays were in transition, which was in the 91st percentile, and even more incredible was they did this despite a sub-250 defensive turnover rate. This was a team that was looking to attack off a miss, a rebound, or a made basket. When they did get into their half court offense, they were a pick and roll heavy team, something that will likely be even more prominent with this group. There will likely be two main differences with this team. First, expect more success when the big men cut to the basket. Last year, they were in the 3rd percentile in scoring efficiency on those plays, down from the 67th percentile with Freemantle the year before. Second, despite the loss of Olivari, expect more kicking out to open shooters. Maddox and Conwell are both high volume shot makers and this trio will create a lot of looks.

The defensive end is where Miller has had more questions than answers so far, and none of the additions are guys who have ever excelled on defense. They rarely come out of man and the preference is not to switch on ball screens. Players are instructed to always play with hands up and to take big steps when challenging shots to maximize the impact of the challenge. The problem was execution. As good as Xavier was in pick and roll on offense, they were just as bad shutting it down on defense. This led to a high rim rate, a big part of why Xavier was 9th in the Big East in eFG%. In Miller's first two years, Xavier simply hasn't had a defensive calling card. They don't turn teams over, fail to disrupt passing lanes, don't control the glass, they are simply a mediocre, beatable team on defense. Xavier is going to put up points, but they will give opponents the chance to put them right back up in return.

2024-25 Outlook

This team reminds me a lot of the 2022-23 Xavier team that Sean Miller had in the Sweet 16. They have a wealth of capable back court scorers who fit Miller's offensive plan, a versatile finisher at the four, and enough quality at center to provide some offensive punch and paint protection. The problem was they could only play one way, which was fast, and were porous on defense so they had to keep scoring to win because they couldn't get stops. All three guards are mid-major up-transfers, and Xavier has the shortest 1-3 in the Big East. They are going to be challenged by bigger, stronger players on a nightly basis. Up front, Freemantle was always better known for his offense than defense while Hugley needs to prove he's healthy for the first time since 2022. Even with Traore, rim protection and front court defense was going to be a struggle, but once again Xavier has a lack of depth in the front court. There will be nights when Xavier gets the win simply because their shooters get hot and the opponent can't score enough to keep up, but unless the defense improves in ways this roster doesn't seem capable of on paper, they will remain a team that is competing for a NCAA bid rather than a Big East title.

One Man's Opinion

I love Xavier's offensive potential. They should be able to score with anyone and if the back court fits as well as Miller's previous mid-major adds (Souley Boum, Quincy Olivari) they will be able to keep up with anyone in the Big East or the country on their night. But I hate what their defense looks likely to be, which is why I have them #5 in the Big East, and that was before they lost starting center Traore for the season. It's a small back court with slow-footed bigs and not much depth up front. Whether you want to compare them to 2023 Xavier or 2024 St. John's, they just look like a team that will compete but will need to outscore teams to beat them, and on nights when the scoring falls off or the defense can't get stops, they'll come up short. I also have serious reservations about the long-term roster construction. They have four starters who will not be able to return and four more bench players in the same situation. Is Sean Miller planning to be back in 2025-26? This roster certainly doesn't look like it. With Louisville, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan all filling this past offseason I'm not sure where he might be looking to go, but this is not the roster one builds if they are focused on anything more than the next 6 months.

Butler Preview, 2024-25

Butler Bulldogs

December 18th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum / January 28th, 2025 at Hinkle Fieldhouse

Head Coach: Thad Matta (471-187 overall, 56-41 at Butler)

Three-Year NET Average: 105.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 100.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 76

Pierre Brooks' 14 points led Butler in their upset win over Marquette
Photo by Patrick McDermott | Getty Sports

State of the Program

2024 was a significant improvement for Thad Matta and Butler. After some writers picked them to finish last in the league, they instead improved their kenpom ranking by 58 spots over the previous year and flirted with the bubble into February. Their improvement included wins over tournament teams Boise State, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Marquette. The offseason was a mixed bag as they saw starting guards Posh Alexander and DJ Davis both leave via transfer while starting big Jalen Thomas graduated. They brought in Kolby King from Tulane and Jamie Kaiser from Maryland to bolster the back court while Patrick McCaffrey from Iowa gives them some front court depth. Butler also managed to get Jahmyl Telfort back from the NBA Draft pool while Finley Bizjack entered the transfer portal but elected to return, setting the Bulldogs up for the Trilly Donovan adage "sometimes the best get is the one that's already on your roster." There are certainly reasons for optimism as Thad Matta enters year three.

Rotation

Kolby King is back in the Big East; he started his career at St. John's before a year at Tulane. He will likely start for Matta, though it's unclear if he'll be on or off the ball. He is a savvy player who knows how to get to his spots and is highly efficient from beyond the arc (36.6%) and at the rim (67.0%). One concern is that King was much worse against Tier A&B competition according to kenpom (80.6 ORtg) so he needs to prove he doesn't just feast on garbage opponents. Finley Bizjack was extremely erratic last year. In 26 games of 10+ minutes, he had 7 games of 138+ ORtg, 15 games of 87 or worse, and just 4 in between those poles. He is the other contender to start at the point. Pierre Brooks was Butler's leading scorer, finding the consistency that eluded him for two years at Michigan State. Brooks was excellent from beyond the arc and an integral part of the offense as Butler was 12.2 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor. Jahmyl Telfort posted a career best offensive rating after transferring in from Northeastern, but did so in an unspectacular way. He's a poor shooter at the rim (53.3%) and beyond the arc (30.8%) but rarely turned it over and rarely makes mistakes. He plays a bit of an old man game, not really standing out, but always being fairly solid. Andre Screen was excellent in limited minutes, likely only playing as little as he did because Jalen Thomas was the team's most efficient player and the two never played together (not a single possession). He's a high efficiency rebounder that lives around the rim. Depth should be another strength for this team, as Moore and Kaiser both have high-major rotation experience, McCaffrey is a veteran of numerous NCAA teams, and Kapke is another rebounding space-eater with the added benefit of being able to stretch the floor.

Style of Play

Offensively, Matta largely flipped the script last year. His team played more up-tempo, excelling at getting to the rim or kicking out off a drive. When they managed to complete those plays, they did well, but settled far too often for mid-range shots. That should be mitigated by the departure of Jalen Thomas, who was top-30 in mid-range attempt rate. Beyond the arc, Butler is great at creating catch-and-shoot situations. They rarely (2.6 attempts/100 possessions) pull up for jumpers from three, instead using either drive and kick or pick and pop actions. Butler got assists on 91.6% of their three-point attempts. The departure of Alexander and Davis, Butler's top two turnover creators, could lead to a slower offense, but expect them still to run heavy on driving actions that are more likely to finish at the rim or result in open threes. Matta likes to run multiple shooters around a big and this roster fits that well, and don't be surprised to see some five-out from this Butler offense if they swing McCaffrey or Kapke to the middle.

On the defensive end, Matta's teams rarely foul. Both of his Butler teams have been top-10 in defensive free throw rate. The problem with that lack of physicality is they let teams get to the rim too often, ranking 224th in rim attempt rate and 228th in FG% at the rim. When you let teams get to the rim often and convert when they get there, it's no surprise their defense ranked 9th in the Big East, ahead of only Georgetown and DePaul. His best defenses have been man-to-man, ball-pressure defenses that are aggressive without fouling. The problem is even with Alexander and Davis, Butler ranked #250 in defensive turnover rate. It seems unlikely their replacements will perform better in that regard. That leaves the question of what Butler's defensive identity will be. They want to pressure the ball but don't have the quick hands to do that. They don't have the lateral quickness to keep teams away from the rim and don't have the shot-blockers to serve as enforcers when drivers get through. It's possible that Matta simply doesn't have the level of talent he needs to execute the defense he wants to run.

2024-25 Outlook 

Davis and Thomas are big losses, but it's entirely possible the departure of Posh Alexander is addition by subtraction. He's not a great offensive player and on defense his desire to pursue steals comes at the expense of holding defensive position. There's no true point guard on the roster, but King, Bizjack, and Telfort are all capable of creating for others and Brooks is a legitimate all-Big East contender. Their non-con has winnable opportunities (SMU, Northwestern, UNLV/Mississippi St, Wisconsin) with only one game that can be chalked up as a loss today (at Houston). This won't be a great offensive or defensive team, but they have experience both on and off the court. Matta seems to have this team pointed in the right direction and while they won't likely compete for a Big East title, they could be scrappy enough to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.

One Man's Opinion

I picked Butler last a year ago and won't be making that mistake again. I'm putting them at #6 in the Big East. This is a team with bubble potential and I think it's more likely than not they realize that. It will come down primarily to Matta, but he had last year's team in the mix for a bid into mid-February before their late collapse. Posh Alexander's departure is addition by subtraction. Losing DJ Davis' offense and floor-spacing hurts, but I think Matta can get King, Kaiser, and McCaffrey to offset that loss. This won't be an exciting team, and they'll probably win some games ugly, but Thad is building them back to respectability.

Providence Preview, 2024-25

Providence Friars

December 31st, 2024 at Amica Mutual Pavilion / February 25th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Kim English (55-43 overall, 21-14 at Providence)

Three-Year NET Average: 46.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 43.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 60

Bryce Hopkins' health is a key question as Providence looks to get back to the Tournament
 Photo by Steve Senne | AP Photo

State of the Program

Kim English took over a Providence program with as many NCAA appearances (7) in the prior decade than they had in the thirty-five years before that. Ed Cooley left not only big shoes to fill, but two likely NBA players in Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins and a trio of promising young players in Jayden Pierre, Corey Floyd, and Garwey Dual. Providence was 11-2 (2-0) when Bryce Hopkins suffered a season-ending injury. The Friars lost their next four games and saw their season on the decline. Carter performed enough superheroics to lead Providence to a 10-10 Big East record and the brink of the NCAA Tournament, but they ultimately missed out and Carter headed to the NBA Draft Lottery. Dual also left, while George Mason transfers Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines exhausted their eligibility. English hit the portal hard, bringing in a quartet of players expected to contribute (Wesley Cardet, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Christ Essandoko, and Bensley Joseph) and a top-50 big man who will likely earn immediate minutes. Fans are optimistic, but English is going on three years without an NCAA appearance (two at GMU) and he needs to figure that out if he's going to live up to Ed Cooley's legacy on the court.

Rotation

Jayden Pierre started 31 games for the Friars and was hot and cold. He needs to find consistency for this team to reach their ceiling, especially without a lottery pick in Carter alongside him. Wesley Cardet is one of the more interesting transfers in the country. The optimistic case is that he's a high-usage, productive scorer that can create his own shot and provide for others. The pessimistic case is he's a mediocre efficiency player that racked up big counting numbers because his uncle was the coach at Chicago State. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but he has had productive games against quality competition, including 19 points at K-State, 30 points/9 rebounds in an upset win over Northwestern, and 18 points/4 assists at Fiserv against Marquette two years ago. Jabri Abdur-Rahim was a starter at Georgia who did well as a role player that didn't make mistakes. Friar fans will hope Bryce Hopkins will be the star of this team. He was the odds-on favorite for Big East Player of the Year in 2023 before a late slump coupled with Tyler Kolek brilliance edged him out of the award, which was followed by a season ending injury last year. Hopkins is a productive scorer and rebounder, but it was his defense early in the season that stood out. When he was injured, Providence had the #4 defense in the country according to T-Rank through January 2; from that point on their defense ranked #36. He's a strong, physical wing with an NBA frame and the ability to score at all three levels when healthy. Christ Essandoko is a player who will divide opinions. The Friar faithful are convinced he will be an instant impact big man, but while his counting stats are impressive considering the minutes, team efficiency at St. Joe's plummeted on both ends of the floor when he a was in the game.

 

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The Providence bench has depth, but similarly a lot of questions. Bensley Joseph was a starter at Miami last year, but they took a huge back as he stepped up from a sixth man role. Corey Floyd earned significant minutes last year, but he was a bad offensive player and below average defender (though health concerns may have contributed). Justyn Fernandez is an athletic wing, but sat out last season with a knee injury and his efficiency was already poor at GMU in the A-10. Rich Barron was a lights out shooter (42.9% from three) but his already limited role may be diminished this year. Oswin Erhunwunse looks like a potential star as a blossoming shot blocker, but he's also reclassified from 2025 and reclassed freshmen often take longer to acclimate. 7'2" JUCO transfer Anton Bonke could provide additional bench depth but it will be a big step up as he played his first organized basketball game at Eastern Arizona a year ago after coming to the United States from the island nation of Vanuatu.

Style of Play

 

It's hard to separate how much of last year's offense was Kim English's style and how much was Devin Carter's ability. Providence used screens to create rim opportunities for Carter and their bigs. The downside is that their best rim finishers left and the returning and new players who will take those shots are pretty terrible at the rim (see chart below). Providence ranked #71 in percent of points from three and that is one area they should improve. While Carter was their most efficient shooter from deep at 37.7%, as a team they shot just 32.5%. Cardet (34.4%), Abdur-Rahim (35.6%), Joseph (36.4%), and Essandoko (36.8%) give them more reliable long-range options. They generate most of their threes off drive and kick actions. Carter had the tendency to pull up from very long range, but that will likely be lessened with his departure. Ultimately, the hope will be to take and make a lot of threes while using cuts and screens to open up opportunities at the rim, and with Hopkins and Essandoko expect PC to attack the offensive glass for second chance points.

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The defensive end is where Providence excelled last year. They play tenaciously, chasing teams off the line, getting into passing lanes, and altering everything at the rim. Much of that was Carter, though. He led the team in steal rate, was second in block rate to Oduro, and did it without fouling (2.2 fouls/40 minutes). Expect a similar game plan even without the head of their snake. English's teams play hard and will challenge everything at the arc, while funneling drivers inside. Essandoko and Erhunwumse are both promising rim protectors and will look to continue PC's top-20 at the rim defense (52.6%), with the caveat that St. Joseph's was worse in ATR defense with Essandoko on the floor. The reason for this may be that over-aggressive shot blockers can be exploited in cut and pick and roll plays, so they will still be able to produce high percentage block numbers but when they don't get their hands on the ball they are more likely to give up a basket than someone who simply plays sound positional defense.

2024-25 Outlook

 

If you take a cursory glance at the Providence roster, there's a lot to like. Hopkins has shown the ability to be a star in the past. Pierre and Essandoko are promising young players. Abdur-Rahim, Cardet, and Joseph bring experience and production. Fernandez and Bonke are high-upside projects that could come into form. But digging under the hood, there's also a lot to be worried about. Hopkins and Fernandez are coming off major injuries. The bulk of the team is mediocre to downright awful when it comes to offensive efficiency. And for a team that wants to get to the cup, the players they have are really, really bad historically at finishing when they get close. Each of the past two years, English has underperformed his preseason kenpom projections, and while Providence fans are optimistic about the energy and moxy English displays, it's interesting to note his early attachment to the "Cooley Zone." The 3 Man Weave podcast referred to Providence as such because Ed Cooley's teams always seemed to finish between 40-80 in kenpom, which is typically on the NCAA bubble but not convincingly in or out. In nine of Cooley's twelve seasons they finished in that range, with an average finish of exactly 59. In English's first season, he finished at exactly 59, and both T-Rank and kenpom have Providence at 60 going into this year. As much as things have changed in Providence, the outcome feels like it's remaining the same.

One Man's Opinion

 

I have Providence at #7 in the Big East. On paper, I see the argument of a healthy Hopkins, a pair of high major transfers in Joseph and Abdur-Rahim, and upside plays like Cardet and Essandoko. But I can't get that second chart out of my head when I think of this team. Individually, English brought in a number of useful pieces, but I question the fit of them playing together. This team needs to be able to finish at the rim to open up looks at the arc. All they did was watch their best rim finishers leave and replace those shots with players who struggle to convert the looks they need for their offense to work. I have also talked to St. Joe's fans excited about the departure of Christ Essandoko and the opening it gives to Rasheer Fleming. Aside from his first year at George Mason being an improvement on Dave Paulsen, every season of English's young career has been worse for the program he was at than the season that preceded it. If it all goes right, this could be a bubble team that lands on the right side, but they don't look like a team that can challenge the top tier of the Big East.

Villanova Preview, 2024-25

Villanova Wildcats

January 24th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum / February 21st, 2025 at Wells Fargo Center

Head Coach: Kyle Neptune (51-49 overall, 35-33 at Villanova)

Three-Year NET Average: 40.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 32.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 43

Eric Dixon is the only returning starter from last year's NIT team

 Photo by Charles Fox | Philadelphia Inquirer

State of the Program

When Jay Wright left, Villanova had completed a decade with two National Championships, an additional Final Four, five Big East Tournament titles, seven Big East regular season titles, and eight top-20 kenpom finishes. They were an elite program operating at the top of the sport. In Kyle Neptune's second season, the Wildcats finished tied for sixth in the Big East (10-10) and missed the NCAA Tournament, all for the second straight year. More worrying might be that gone from that roster are five of the top six rotation players, primarily replaced with mid-major up-transfers. While there are mitigating circumstances we'll get into later, Kyle Neptune has the most pressure of his young career with what looks like his least talented roster on paper at Villanova.

Rotation

Neptune probably didn't expect to be replacing his point guard this soon, but Jhamir Brickus comes across town from La Salle where he was a four-year starter. Brickus will be a change from Mark Armstrong. He's a better ball-handler, creator, and shooter, but isn't the elite pick and roll player nor nearly the defender Armstrong was. Wooga Poplar comes from Miami. Like Brickus, he brings more shooting but has deficiencies on the defensive end. Miami also took a big step back as his role expanded, though that blame doesn't lie solely on him. Jordan Longino will need to take a big step up. One of the last Jay Wright holdovers, he does a little bit of everything but hasn't really excelled at anything. The polar opposite of that is Eric Dixon, who does a lot of everything, and seems to do it all well. According to hoop-explorer, Villanova's adjusted efficiency was 20.5 points/100 possessions better (+17.8 on offense/-2.7 on defense) with Dixon on the floor. Expect the bulk of the offense to run through him, as he is a solid catch-and-shoot option on the perimeter, can put it on the floor and get to the rim, and even create for others. His partner up front will be Enoch Boakye, a monster rebounder and prodigious shot blocker. On offense, Boakye provides a lob threat and does well finishing in pick and roll situations. He's also a dangerous transition weapon as he runs the floor well. If he has issues, they are on the defensive end. His shot blocking and rebounding cover up some deficiencies, but he's a poor man defender and if he isn't getting the block, he probably isn't stopping the shot. The bench is very young, with Tyler Perkins the only player with significant D1 experience. The Penn transfer is joined by a quartet of freshmen with varying expectations. Aleksandar Gavalyugov is considered a high-upside European import, though whether he's instant impact or more of a project (as most European transfers are) remains to be seen. Matthew Hodge and Josiah Moseley are true freshmen wings who will likely need to provide immediate minutes while Alabama transfer Kris Parker redshirted last year but became highly coveted in the portal as he came very close to committing to Florida State and Butler before settling on 'Nova.

Style of Play

Kyle Neptune is trying to continue what Villanova did under Jay Wright. Instead of a deep playbook, they teach concepts, getting players to move constantly off the ball to create open looks. Everyone develops multi-dimensional skills, so the bigs can not only step out and hit a three, but put it on the floor or deliver a precision pass to create an open three for a teammate. The guards can drive and run the offense, but are equally comfortable turning their back and posting up in the paint, and have the strength to finish down there. This also requires teaching patience and waiting to attack until you find the right shot, which led to one of the more aesthetically appealing slow-paced offenses. Wright succeeded in part because he had years to develop players, teaching and reteaching the same lessons year over year. Under Neptune, the concepts are the same. Lots of attacking the interior in order to finish at the rim, kick out for a three, or find a perimeter cutter. However, a mix of injuries to top players, rotations heavily based on freshmen, and an increased reliance on the transfer portal has led to diminished returns. After nine straight years in the top-21 of kenpom's offensive efficiency, they finished #39 and #87 the past two years.

Do you see all that blue? Jay Wright would NEVER!
 Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Defense was where Neptune's team excelled. Their #13 kenpom finish was the best since their 2018 National Championship team. They like defenders that can switch and rebound. Villanova is focused on keeping teams out of the paint. Their bigs will play drop coverage to make sure rim attempts are limited and everyone is focused on blitzing ball screens to further hamper pick and roll. They rely on quick defenders who can get to the spot before the offensive player, which minimizes good looks inside. Villanova is great at gang rebounding as everyone will come to the glass which limits second shot opportunities. As might be expected, this interior focus leaves the perimeter open, which is why Neptune's teams have been sub-300 in defensive three-point attempt rate each of the past two years. This feels like a holdover from Jay Wright, and is a scheme that can work if you have better shooters and create better looks than your opponents. That really hasn't been the case the past two years.

2024-25 Outlook

Let me start by saying I think Kyle Neptune is a bit underrated as a coach. He's clearly no Jay Wright, but his first 'Nova team was killed by the Whitmore and Moore injuries. They're likely a tourney team if those two are healthy all year. Last year it was poor luck in close games, as they went 4-9 in games decided by two possessions or in overtime. In terms of bad bounces, they ranked #330 and #351 in kenpom's Luck stat those two years. Neptune has had some really bad fortune, but some of those close games may come down to him not having the experience to make the right coaching move at the critical moment. Putting together consecutive 10-10 Big East records and top-60 kenpom finishes indicate to me he's not as bad as people make out.

That said, I hesitate to see this team's road to success. Dixon is fantastic, but at his best he was the fifth option on a Final Four team. In the years he's been expected to carry the load, Villanova has been absent from the NCAA Tournament. Brickus, Boakye, and Perkins are fine mid-major players, but it's hard to imagine them having a more positive impact than Tyler Burton, Hakim Hart, and Lance Ware did a year ago. Wooga Poplar is probably the highlight addition, and is he really going to be better than T.J. Bamba was? This team has lost the continuity they thrived on and while this may not be the least talented team in the league, it certainly doesn't look like a tourney team. The man that needs to be the difference maker is Neptune, and while he might be a perfectly fine coach, in a league with Dan Hurley, Shaka Smart, Rick Pitino, Sean Miller, Thad Matta, and Greg McDermott, you either need an elite roster or elite coach to compete at the top of the league. I don't see either of those things on the Main Line anymore. Neptune was well suited to learn the craft at a program like Fordham, where he was probably a middle-tier A-10 coach, but in the Big East he's near the bottom simply because the coaching talent is so high.

One Man's Opinion

I'm picking Villanova #8 in the Big East. I could see a world where the transfers pan out and the Dixon/Poplar combination is enough to lift them to the right side of the bubble, but this roster just looks too unproven for a coach with Neptune's limitations. And while there's bubble upside, if things go wrong, this team could fall all the way to the cellar of the Big East. I strongly suspect this will be Neptune's last year heading the Wildcats.

Seton Hall Preview, 2024-25

Seton Hall Pirates

January 21st, 2025 at Prudential Center / February 18th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Shaheen Holloway (106-8 overall, 42-28 at Seton Hall)

Three-Year NET Average: 64.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 53.3

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 92

 

Dylan Addae-Wusu battles Tyler Kolek for the ball

Photo by Rich Schultz | Getty Images

State of the Program

Shaheen Holloway's second campaign in Newark was a roller coaster ride. The Pirates started 4-0, then dropped four of five, losing to every top-100 non-conference opponent they faced. They managed to beat Missouri in Kansas City before really announcing their presence nationally. SHU knocked off undefeated UConn in their Big East opener and followed that up with wins at Providence and over Marquette and St. John's as part of their 6-1 league start. A three-game losing skid brought them back to reality a bit, but they finished strong, winning seven of their last ten (the losses were at Villanova, Creighton, and UConn) and entered Championship Week with a real shot at an NCAA bid. The week went as bad for the Pirates as it could have gone. They lost to St. John's in the Big East Tournament, then watched New Mexico, Duquesne, UAB, Oregon, and NC State win conference tournaments to take the Pirates (second team out) out of the field. But instead of bemoaning their predicament (okay, there was some of that too, and blaming of Val Ackerman for not...umm...taking to Twitter to defend them) they went out and won five straight to capture the NIT title. Summer was not so kind as four starters departed, including Kadary Richmond who went across the river to join St. John's. They did bring in 7 transfers, but all were either high-major role-players or low-major up-transfers.

Rotation

It sounds like Providence transfer Garwey Dual will get the first crack at replacing Richmond. He used his defensive length well and was both a threat to create turnovers and block shots from the help side, but he was just as likely to turn it over on the offensive end and his 38.8 eFG% left a lot to be desired. Dylan Addae-Wusu and Isaiah Coleman will provide his back court support. Addae-Wusu has been a quiet but capable Big East contributor for four years (three at St. John's) while Coleman elevated his game during Big East play, but seemed to hit a freshman wall in mid-February. There's competition in the front court. We expect Scotty Middleton to find his way into the starting lineup because his shooting and defensive length looks essential to what Holloway wants to do. Without Richmond and Jaden Bediako, rebounding could take a hit, which is where Yacine Toumi comes in. The grad transfer from Evansville has been a monster on the defensive glass the past two years, but will likely need to add bulk if he's going to keep that production up in the Big East. The Pirate bench is a mix of low-major experience and high-major fliers. Zion Harmon (Bethune-Cookman) and Chaunce Jenkins (Old Dominion) were productive at lower levels, but are high-usage, low efficiency players that performed worse against higher level competition. Prince Aligbe (Boston College), Gus Yalden (Wisconsin), and Emmanuel Okorafor (Louisville) all came from high-majors but played limited minutes (or none at all in Yalden's case).

Style of Play

When possible, Seton Hall's offense will start on the defensive end, getting out in transition off steals and rebounds. Once they settle into the halfcourt, expect a lot of off-ball movement. They use the drive to initiate and want to get to the rim, ranking 28th nationally in the rate of shots at the rim. When that isn't open, the off-ball movement is designed to feed cutters also attacking the rim or dishing out for open threes. The problem last year was that the Pirates were not a good shooting team, but they tried to make up for that with rebounding, ranking in the 97th percentile in shots taken directly from an offensive rebound.

Seton Hall gets inside a lot, but often needs second chances to score

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

Holloway built his reputation on defense. His St. Peter's teams led the MAAC in defense for three years before he came to Seton Hall. He runs deep, 8-9 man rotations. His teams apply ball pressure throughout the possession. Their strength is inside the arc, where he always has a high-level shot blocker in the middle with numerous help side defenders equally willing to challenge shots. Where they can be exploited is on the perimeter. Teams took 42.4% of their shots outside the arc against Seton Hall. To beat the Pirate defense it helps a lot to make your shots from three.

2024-25 Outlook

While the NIT title was likely fun for Pirate fans, this offseason has left them with a lot of questions. Kadary Richmond was a matchup nightmare, Al-Amir Dawes was by far their most reliable shooter, and Jaden Bediako was a monster on the offensive glass. Not only are the replacements generally inefficient, but by and large they were inefficient at a lower level. The players that are most proven are not high major players, and the players that have been at the high major level are not proven.

All that said, last year's Seton Hall roster had no business finishing 4th in the Big East, and if not for an unprecedented number of bid thieves they would've been in the NCAA Tournament. Holloway's teams always play hard and are never intimidated by competition, but it's hard to see where the offense comes from. Expect them to try to turn games into rock fights. The Hall was 8-2 in games decided by 6 points or fewer last year and will need similar fortune this year if they have any hopes of playing in the postseason. I'm just not sure that's in the cards for this roster.

One Man's Opinion

What Holloway did last year was incredible. Leading that roster to that finish was an incredible coaching achievement. But based on this roster, I have the Pirates #9 in the Big East. There isn't a rotation player that reached 105.0 offensive efficiency last year. And it's not like these guys were role-players for contenders, they were either bit players for non-tourney high-majors or low efficiency, high usage guys for low majors. On paper, this is the worst roster in the Big East. That said, Holloway is a consistent defensive coach who will have his team competing and last year wasn't the first time he worked magic (remember St. Peter's, anyone?). If anyone can turn this ragtag group into a respectable outfit, it's him, but it will require a lot of overachieving from players whose careers haven't been defined by their overachievement.

DePaul Preview, 2024-25

DePaul Blue Demons

January 14th, 2025 at Wintrust Arena / February 11th, 2025

Head Coach: Chris Holtmann (251-171 overall, 0-0 at DePaul)

Three-Year NET Average: 195.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 180.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 128

Chris Holtmann is back in the Big East with the Blue Demons

Photo by Jeff Hanisch | USA Today Sports

State of the Program

The kenpom database goes back to 1997. In that time, less than 2% of Big East teams finished ranked 200 or worse, bottoming out at #234 Virginia Tech all the way back in 2001. Hopefully that illustrates just how bad DePaul finishing #304, by far the worst rank in league history, was in 2024. That 3-29 (0-20) season got Tony Stubblefield fired. DePaul turned to former Ohio State and Butler head coach Chris Holtmann, who cleaned house, bringing back zero minutes from last year's roster. He added 10 transfers and three freshmen. The good news for DePaul is when you were the worst team in Big East history, there's nowhere to go but up.

Rotation

Holtmann landed a solid point guard in Conor Enright, who started 32 games for a Drake team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year. He's a knockdown shooter from deep, can find the open man, and was well schooled in a winning system. He's joined in the back court by Layden Blocker, a high-upside transfer from Arkansas who was ranked in the top-100 coming out of high school. Blocker struggled to break through with the Razorbacks but is lightning quick, excels at driving to the rim, and is a better playmaker than his freshman year stats indicate. Isaiah Rivera comes to DePaul from across town at UIC, where he was an excellent shooter and high-volume scorer, but he started his career at Colorado State so he should be better acclimated to compete at this level. J.J. Traynor joins from a Louisville program that was a disaster, but as a player there's a lot to like. He is a dominant rim finisher, making 76.7% of his shots this past year (top-10 nationally) after converting on 76.3% the year before. He also added a three-point shot, connecting on 36.8% from deep. Louisville was better on both ends with Traynor in the game and he is one of the gems of Holtmann's massive transfer class, though he did only play 8 games last year. David Skogman comes from Davidson and is the epitome of a stretch 5. He took 94.6% of his shots from three or at the rim (evenly split at 47.3% each) and was great in both regards, making 46.8% from deep and 62.9% ATR. He's a much better offensive than defensive player, so don't be surprised to see him platoon with Missouri State transfer N.J. Benson. Jacob Meyer (Coastal Carolina), Troy D'Amico (Southern Illinois), C.J. Gunn (Indiana), and David Thomas (Mercer) provide depth and experience off the bench while all four are capable long-range shooters. Don't expect freshmen Chris Riddle or Sekou Konneh to contribute much yet.

Style of Play

Historically, Holtmann loves a balanced attack that excels in the spots other teams leave open, such as mid-range. In the past, he has run a slow-tempo offense that often uses the big as a hub for inside out or post-up actions. While there will likely be some elements of that, I don't think that's what Holtmann is planning for this DePaul team. DePaul's ten transfers combined to make 286/728 three point shots last season. If you compared that 39.3% clip to the rest of the country, Holtmann's roster would've ranked 6th nationally in three-point percentage last year. I expect the pace will stay slow, but Holtmann will use his team's three point lethality to keep them close and try to pull upsets. They have the ability to routinely put four and sometimes five long-range specialists on the floor at the same time. Holtmann likes to use motion offense so expect a lot of movement designed to open up the arc.

The biggest question will be on the defensive end. Holtmann has done great when he inherited defensive players, but his high-major stops seem to decline as he gets his own players in place. He had the 8th ranked defense his first year at Butler, followed by #97 and #49. At Ohio State, his first three years were 15/25/19, then the Wesson brothers (recruited by Thad Matta) left and he followed that with 82/111/106. Further, when he was fired at Ohio State on February 14th, their defense according to kenpom was ranked #124 but it finished at #63, a massive improvement. According to T-Rank, Ohio State's defense ranked #24 from the time Jon Diebler took over through the end of the season.

Holtmann's defense starts on the offensive end. They typically send three offensive rebounders to follow the shot while two players drop back to cut off transition opportunities. One player, the fullback, goes into the back court to take away easy dunks or layups while also calling out defensive sets. The halfback is there to slow runners and buy time for the rest of the defense to get back. Once everyone is back, the first big goes retreats to the post, pushing the fullback to the wing and they set up in man-to-man.

2024-25 Outlook

When you clear out the worst roster in league history, it's safe to say DePaul will be improved. Holtmann added experience with Rivera and Skogman, upside with Blocker and Meyer, and tournament pedigree with Enright. There are more offensive weapons than DePaul had in the past, a clear offensive vision built around shooting, and even with defensive questions Holtmann's worst defensive rank in 10 years as a high-major coach was better than Tony Stubblefield's best. The Blue Demons might still be the worst team in the league, but thanks to the roster overhaul and having a competent coach at the helm, there's actually a debate as to whether that will be the case. Their roster may be better than Georgetown or Seton Hall and while they'll still be around the bottom of the league, there's reason to believe they could fight their way out of the cellar. 

One Man's Opinion

It's entirely possible this whole thing collapses, it is DePaul after all, but I'm picking the Blue Demons #10 in the Big East. It's not the best roster, but there's a clear vision and plan, which I can't say for everyone on this end of the standings. This team is going to get into some shootouts and just might have the firepower to win some of them. More often than not, the defense will give up too much to keep up, but they have a competent, Big East level coach and a roster designed to mop up their soft non-con before pulling a few shocking upsets in league play. There's more work to be done, but Holtmann at least laid a foundation.