Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.

Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.

Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.

The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.

The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:

Team	Conf	2014	Rnk	2015	Rnk	2016	Rnk
Villanova	BE	25.98	22	31.27	16	24.17	25
Georgetown	BE	15.82	69	25.82	28	25.66	20
Providence	BE	17.50	54	22.68	40	11.48	71
Xavier	BE	14.63	81	21.78	44	24.83	23
St. John's	BE	15.15	76	19.14	51	4.39
Butler	BE	9.28	147	18.68	55	9.12	86
Seton Hall	BE	11.40	110	14.74	78	19.80	38
Marquette	BE	12.36	101	12.66	93	8.54	94
Creighton	BE	24.47	27	11.18	108	5.31	143
DePaul	BE	5.59		6.08		5.82	133