In the past I've argued a "Middle 25" ranking for college basketball would be much more interesting than the Top 25, since what we really want to identify pre-tournament is the 25 teams fighting for the last 10 spots in the tournament.
The "Middle 25" below were those teams based on me averaging the Strength of Record ESPN argues is the best analytic indicator (a measure of how likely the 25th best team in the country would have been to match the team's record) and the cumulative wisdom of the bracket matrix. I grade last night's performance with a B, C or D letter grade (there were no earth-shattering A or F grades last night) to indicated if a team could have moved up or down based on last night's performance.
| SOR/ Matrix | up to 10 of 25 get bids | CONF | Record | Wed Gm | Grade for Wed or next game (kenpom ranks) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 19-7 | Thur at #74 Oregon | |
| 2 | Saint Mary's | WCC | 25-4 | Thur hosts #295 Pepperdine | |
| 3 | Florida | SEC | 17-10 | Unchanged | C - closer than expected loss at #15 Tennessee |
| 4 | Baylor | Big 12 | 17-11 | Sat at #23 TCU; Lunardi 7th in middle | |
| 5 | St. Bona. | A 10 | 20-6 | Unchanged | C - closer than expected 73-67 home win over #191 Duquesne |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 17-10 | Down | D - destroyed by 19 vs #12 Auburn |
| 7 | Missouri | SEC | 18-10 | Sat #25 Kentucky | |
| 8 | Providence | Big East | 17-10 | Down | D - losing 56-47 with 13 min left vs. #38 Seton Hall before slick floor suspended |
| 9 | Louisville | ACC | 18-9 | Down | D - destroyed by Duke 82-56 |
| 10 | Miss St. Current Cutoff | SEC | 20-8 | Sat Hosts #80 South Carolina | |
| 11 | Syracuse | ACC | 18-9 | Down | D - lost at home vs. #7 UNC |
| 12 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 21-9 | Hosts #27 Penn State | |
| 13 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 19-8 | Thur at #60 Utah; lunardi 11th in middle | |
| 14 | Maryland | Big Ten | 19-11 | Sat hosts #20 Michigan | |
| 15 | Marquette | Big East | 15-11 | Up | B - bigger than expected win over #71 St. John's |
| 16 | Boise State | MW | 21-6 | Up | B - crushed #222 Colorado St 87-54 on road |
| 17 | Penn State | Big Ten | 19-10 | Down | D - upset loss vs. #24 Minnesota at home |
| 18 | LSU | SEC | 16-11 | Sat #71 Georgia | |
| 19 | USC | Pac-12 | 19-9 | Up | bigger than expected win at #112 Colorado |
| 20 | Washington | Pac-12 | 18-9 | Thur at #93 Stanford | |
| 21 | Utah | Pac-12 | 17-9 | Thur hosts #53 UCLA | |
| 22 | Georgia | SEC | 15-11 | Down | D - bigger than expected loss at South Carolina 66-57 |
| 23 | Notre Dame | ACC | 16-12 | Sat at #89 Wake Forest | |
| 24 | Temple | American | 15-12 | host #97 UCF | |
| 25 | Western Kentucky | CUSA | 20-7 | Hosts #316 Charlotte |
A warning - there are 10 spots available for this team without any tournament spoilers, most notably if Middle Tennessee or Nevada were to but upset in the Conference USA or Mountain West Tournament than those two conferences would likely get two spots, but there really are not too many spoilers most years. Based on this measure, Marquette is the "5th team out" as the 15th best team among the Middle 25 vying for 10 spots.
The good news is that was going into the St. John's game, and that win was coupled with all four teams in action in the 6th to 15 spots (the "Middle 10" with Marquette) having bad nights - though Providence could still salvage their night with a comeback in the game they need to finish at Noon Thursday. So if ESPN's resume and/or the Bracket Matrix is close, Marquette's chances likely improved somewhat substantially last night in beating a St. John's team that was undefeated in February including the upsets of Villanova and Duke.
Alabama, Louisville, Syracuse and Providence having setbacks and Marquette's win also improving its standing against the three idle teams just in front of them - Nebraska, UCLA and Maryland - give plenty of potential for movement. We will see how many nudge Marquette into their brackets or at least the next teams' out.
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