Moving a Metric Ton

Tyler Kolek led Marquette's romp over Georgetown

Photo by Tommy Gilligan | USA Today Sports

Our last time out, we discussed how the largest problem for Marquette were their computer numbers. It's amazing what a 2-0 week with a combined 60-point margin of victory over high-major opponents will do to change that. In kenpom, Marquette improved from 85 before the Providence game to 48 the morning after the Georgetown win. In the NET, Marquette improved from 83 to 45 in the same span. According to T-Rank, Marquette was the #1 team in the country over the course of the past week.

As it's the most consistent metric over the past decade, I went back to see what Marquette's improvement in their kenpom rank means for their tournament odds. To do so, I broke down the number of at-large bids earned vs available in each 10-spot data range from 31 to 80. The available number rules out automatic bids as there is no way to know if they would've earned an at-large or not. I also included the lowest kenpom team in each year to earn a bid. It might be interesting for Marquette fans that the lowest kenpom team to ever earn an at-large bid was ranked #83 in 2011, the VCU Final Four team coached by Shaka Smart. Here is the data:

Year	31-40	41-50	51-60	61-70	71-80	Low Bid
2021	6/9	5/10	3/9	0/9	1/8	74
2019	4/7	5/8	3/9	1/9	2/7	78
2018	6/10	6/7	2/8	2/10	0/7	69
2017	8/10	4/8	3/8	0/7	0/9	60
2016	8/10	3/8	4/8	1/9	0/8	62
2015	7/9	7/9	1/9	0/9	0/8	52
2014	4/8	6/9	3/8	0/9	1/7	72
2013	4/7	7/9	4/8	0/8	0/10	60
2012	6/6	4/9	4/8	1/7	1/10	77
2011	7/9	5/8	3/9	1/10	0/10	83
Total	60/85	52/85	30/84	6/87	5/85	68.7
Percent	70.6%	61.2%	35.7%	6.9%	5.9%

At 85, Marquette's odds of earning an at-large bid were next to nothing, but in the 40s they skyrocket to 61.2%. As of this writing, Marquette is #51 thanks to the movement of other teams over the weekend. Regardless, the two blowout wins have put Marquette squarely in the NCAA Tournament discussion thanks to their metric improvement.

One note for this year, I am using the highest ranked NET team to determine autobids. Using the highest ranked team by the NCAA's own evaluation tool insures the in-theory "best" teams are selected rather than allowing outlier results to dictate selection. Let's take a look at the full S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-BAYLOR 2-Auburn 3-ARIZONA 4-GONZAGA

2-Seeds: 8-Kansas 7-PURDUE 6-LSU 5-Michigan State

3-Seeds: 9-Usc 10-VILLANOVA 11-DUKE 12-Ucla

4-Seeds: 16-Tennessee 15-Texas Tech 14-Xavier 13-Iowa State

5-Seeds: 17-Wisconsin 18-Seton Hall 19-Ohio State 20-Connecticut

6-Seeds: 24-HOUSTON 23-Providence 22-Alabama 21-Illinois

7-Seeds: 25-LOYOLA CHICAGO 26-West Virginia 27-Byu 28-Oklahoma

8-Seeds: 32-Colorado State 31-Texas 30-Kentucky 29-San Francisco

9-Seeds: 33-St. Mary's 34-BELMONT 35-Iowa 36-Creighton

10-Seeds: 40-Marquette 39-Minnesota 38-Indiana 37-San Diego State

11-Seeds: 41-Wake Forest 42-Memphis 43-Murray State 44-North Carolina 45-Miami 46-TCU

12-Seeds: 50-UAB 49-WYOMING 48-CHATTANOOGA 47-DAVIDSON

13-Seeds: 51-IONA 52-OHIO 53-OAKLAND 54-NEW MEXICO STATE

14-Seeds: 58-TOWSON 57-VERMONT 56-WAGNER 55-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

15-Seeds: 59-UC IRVINE 60-NAVY 61-PRINCETON 62-LIBERTY

16-Seeds: 68-HOWARD 67-GARDNER WEBB 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN 65-NICHOLLS STATE 64-TEXAS STATE 63-MONTANA STATE

Last Four Byes: Minnesota, Marquette, Wake Forest, Memphis

Last Four In: Murray State, North Carolina, Miami, TCU

First Four Out: VCU, UCF, Florida, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: St. Louis, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Multibid Leagues

Big 12: 8

Big 10: 8

Big East: 7

SEC: 5

ACC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

MWC: 3

OVC: 2

American: 2