Providence Preview, 2024-25

Providence Friars

December 31st, 2024 at Amica Mutual Pavilion / February 25th, 2025 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Kim English (55-43 overall, 21-14 at Providence)

Three-Year NET Average: 46.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 43.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 60

Bryce Hopkins' health is a key question as Providence looks to get back to the Tournament
 Photo by Steve Senne | AP Photo

State of the Program

Kim English took over a Providence program with as many NCAA appearances (7) in the prior decade than they had in the thirty-five years before that. Ed Cooley left not only big shoes to fill, but two likely NBA players in Devin Carter and Bryce Hopkins and a trio of promising young players in Jayden Pierre, Corey Floyd, and Garwey Dual. Providence was 11-2 (2-0) when Bryce Hopkins suffered a season-ending injury. The Friars lost their next four games and saw their season on the decline. Carter performed enough superheroics to lead Providence to a 10-10 Big East record and the brink of the NCAA Tournament, but they ultimately missed out and Carter headed to the NBA Draft Lottery. Dual also left, while George Mason transfers Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines exhausted their eligibility. English hit the portal hard, bringing in a quartet of players expected to contribute (Wesley Cardet, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, Christ Essandoko, and Bensley Joseph) and a top-50 big man who will likely earn immediate minutes. Fans are optimistic, but English is going on three years without an NCAA appearance (two at GMU) and he needs to figure that out if he's going to live up to Ed Cooley's legacy on the court.

Rotation

Jayden Pierre started 31 games for the Friars and was hot and cold. He needs to find consistency for this team to reach their ceiling, especially without a lottery pick in Carter alongside him. Wesley Cardet is one of the more interesting transfers in the country. The optimistic case is that he's a high-usage, productive scorer that can create his own shot and provide for others. The pessimistic case is he's a mediocre efficiency player that racked up big counting numbers because his uncle was the coach at Chicago State. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but he has had productive games against quality competition, including 19 points at K-State, 30 points/9 rebounds in an upset win over Northwestern, and 18 points/4 assists at Fiserv against Marquette two years ago. Jabri Abdur-Rahim was a starter at Georgia who did well as a role player that didn't make mistakes. Friar fans will hope Bryce Hopkins will be the star of this team. He was the odds-on favorite for Big East Player of the Year in 2023 before a late slump coupled with Tyler Kolek brilliance edged him out of the award, which was followed by a season ending injury last year. Hopkins is a productive scorer and rebounder, but it was his defense early in the season that stood out. When he was injured, Providence had the #4 defense in the country according to T-Rank through January 2; from that point on their defense ranked #36. He's a strong, physical wing with an NBA frame and the ability to score at all three levels when healthy. Christ Essandoko is a player who will divide opinions. The Friar faithful are convinced he will be an instant impact big man, but while his counting stats are impressive considering the minutes, team efficiency at St. Joe's plummeted on both ends of the floor when he a was in the game.

 

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The Providence bench has depth, but similarly a lot of questions. Bensley Joseph was a starter at Miami last year, but they took a huge back as he stepped up from a sixth man role. Corey Floyd earned significant minutes last year, but he was a bad offensive player and below average defender (though health concerns may have contributed). Justyn Fernandez is an athletic wing, but sat out last season with a knee injury and his efficiency was already poor at GMU in the A-10. Rich Barron was a lights out shooter (42.9% from three) but his already limited role may be diminished this year. Oswin Erhunwunse looks like a potential star as a blossoming shot blocker, but he's also reclassified from 2025 and reclassed freshmen often take longer to acclimate. 7'2" JUCO transfer Anton Bonke could provide additional bench depth but it will be a big step up as he played his first organized basketball game at Eastern Arizona a year ago after coming to the United States from the island nation of Vanuatu.

Style of Play

 

It's hard to separate how much of last year's offense was Kim English's style and how much was Devin Carter's ability. Providence used screens to create rim opportunities for Carter and their bigs. The downside is that their best rim finishers left and the returning and new players who will take those shots are pretty terrible at the rim (see chart below). Providence ranked #71 in percent of points from three and that is one area they should improve. While Carter was their most efficient shooter from deep at 37.7%, as a team they shot just 32.5%. Cardet (34.4%), Abdur-Rahim (35.6%), Joseph (36.4%), and Essandoko (36.8%) give them more reliable long-range options. They generate most of their threes off drive and kick actions. Carter had the tendency to pull up from very long range, but that will likely be lessened with his departure. Ultimately, the hope will be to take and make a lot of threes while using cuts and screens to open up opportunities at the rim, and with Hopkins and Essandoko expect PC to attack the offensive glass for second chance points.

Stats from hoop-explorer.com

The defensive end is where Providence excelled last year. They play tenaciously, chasing teams off the line, getting into passing lanes, and altering everything at the rim. Much of that was Carter, though. He led the team in steal rate, was second in block rate to Oduro, and did it without fouling (2.2 fouls/40 minutes). Expect a similar game plan even without the head of their snake. English's teams play hard and will challenge everything at the arc, while funneling drivers inside. Essandoko and Erhunwumse are both promising rim protectors and will look to continue PC's top-20 at the rim defense (52.6%), with the caveat that St. Joseph's was worse in ATR defense with Essandoko on the floor. The reason for this may be that over-aggressive shot blockers can be exploited in cut and pick and roll plays, so they will still be able to produce high percentage block numbers but when they don't get their hands on the ball they are more likely to give up a basket than someone who simply plays sound positional defense.

2024-25 Outlook

 

If you take a cursory glance at the Providence roster, there's a lot to like. Hopkins has shown the ability to be a star in the past. Pierre and Essandoko are promising young players. Abdur-Rahim, Cardet, and Joseph bring experience and production. Fernandez and Bonke are high-upside projects that could come into form. But digging under the hood, there's also a lot to be worried about. Hopkins and Fernandez are coming off major injuries. The bulk of the team is mediocre to downright awful when it comes to offensive efficiency. And for a team that wants to get to the cup, the players they have are really, really bad historically at finishing when they get close. Each of the past two years, English has underperformed his preseason kenpom projections, and while Providence fans are optimistic about the energy and moxy English displays, it's interesting to note his early attachment to the "Cooley Zone." The 3 Man Weave podcast referred to Providence as such because Ed Cooley's teams always seemed to finish between 40-80 in kenpom, which is typically on the NCAA bubble but not convincingly in or out. In nine of Cooley's twelve seasons they finished in that range, with an average finish of exactly 59. In English's first season, he finished at exactly 59, and both T-Rank and kenpom have Providence at 60 going into this year. As much as things have changed in Providence, the outcome feels like it's remaining the same.

One Man's Opinion

 

I have Providence at #7 in the Big East. On paper, I see the argument of a healthy Hopkins, a pair of high major transfers in Joseph and Abdur-Rahim, and upside plays like Cardet and Essandoko. But I can't get that second chart out of my head when I think of this team. Individually, English brought in a number of useful pieces, but I question the fit of them playing together. This team needs to be able to finish at the rim to open up looks at the arc. All they did was watch their best rim finishers leave and replace those shots with players who struggle to convert the looks they need for their offense to work. I have also talked to St. Joe's fans excited about the departure of Christ Essandoko and the opening it gives to Rasheer Fleming. Aside from his first year at George Mason being an improvement on Dave Paulsen, every season of English's young career has been worse for the program he was at than the season that preceded it. If it all goes right, this could be a bubble team that lands on the right side, but they don't look like a team that can challenge the top tier of the Big East.