Photo by Jason Szenes | NY Post
The first 8 minutes against St. John's went about as well as Marquette could hope for. Kam Jones was cooking, the threes were falling, and the Golden Eagles raced out to a 24-9 lead. Then it all came apart as St. John's pulled back within 2 by halftime and overwhelmed Marquette in the second half. That result not only knocked Marquette out of the Big East Tournament, but coupled with Louisville's win over Clemson pushed them down to an 8-seed. It could also jeopardize Marquette's 50-week streak in the AP Top 25 (4th longest in the nation) but that won't impact their NCAA selection or seeding.
The bubble is also of interest. First, here are the potential bid thieves still remaining:
Mountain West - Boise State/Colorado State: A thief here is guaranteed, and they knocked UC Irvine out of our field late last night. Boise has been tentatively placed as the Mountain West champ, and is still a viable at-large candidate. Colorado State likely needs to win to take a spot. The biggest question is if the winner will be on the 11 or 12 line, which would determine if a play-in game goes to the 12-line.
Atlantic 10 - George Mason/St. Joseph's/Loyola-Chicago: Any of these would be unexpected, and at a glance VCU should be included. However, the Selection Committee could hold their #280 NCSOS against them. Would it matter that teams like Seton Hall (bad loss) and Miami were Q4 games that typically would not be expected that low? Unsure, but VCU winning is best for teams on the bubble.
American - North Texas/UAB/Tulane: Memphis is locked into the field, though have also fallen down the seed lists. Any of these teams winning would likely slot them to the 12/13 lines. Keep an eye on this one until the end, no one on the bubble will feel safe until the American is decided.
Big West - UC Irvine: This is where it gets interesting. If the Anteaters take the automatic bid, UC San Diego goes into the at-large pool with a 2-1 Q1 record, a win at Utah State, and 11-5 record in the first three quadrants. I think that would be enough to get them to Dayton, but it would be close. I'm pulling for 2-bid Big West, but it feels like a long shot.
So what about the teams hoping to get in? Here are quick thoughts batching the teams at the bottom.
Shock Miss Potential - Baylor/Vanderbilt: Baylor is 13-14 in Q1-2 with only 1 Q1A win. Vanderbilt has a respectable all-around resume, but a glaring #331 NCSOS is something the Selection Committee could leave out. I think these teams are in, but while it would surprise pundits, there is precedent for leaving them out.
Sweating on the Inside - San Diego State/Indiana/Xavier: I think SDSU's wins over Houston and Creighton get them in, but every metric is very bubbly. Indiana has good resume metrics, but 4-13 in Q1 isn't good at all. Oklahoma was the first team out last year at 4-12 in Q1, so Indiana being left out wouldn't be unprecedented, but it took five bid thieves to knock OU out. Xavier is hanging on by their fingertips. They edge out North Carolina in Q1 and not having any bad losses, but bubbly metrics and a UConn win that is teetering on Q1/Q2 could be the deciding factor. If anything, this is clear evidence to do away with the Quadrant system.
Banging on the Window - UC Irvine/North Carolina: UC Irvine can remove doubt by winning today. Their 15-5 Q1-3 record and NCAA record 14 road wins are strong indicators, but UNC's metric superiority and the presence of Bubba Cunningham as Selection Committee chair could come into play. Colorado State could be in the mix, but I think they need to win their way in.
Unprecedented Either Way - Texas: No team that is more than 1 game under .500 in Q1-3 has ever made the tournament, and Texas is 12-15. No team with 7 Q1 wins has ever been left out of the field, and Texas has that. I think the shrinking bubble keeps them out, but they have a slim shot.
Here's our updated S-Curve and bracket:
Multibid Leagues
SEC: 13
Big 10: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 5
Mountain West: 4
ACC: 3
WCC: 2
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