New Mexico Preview, 2024-25

New Mexico Lobos

Friday, May 21 at Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH

Head Coach: Richard Pitino (246-185 overall, 87-48 at New Mexico)

2024-25 NET Rank: 42

2024-25 kenpom Rank: 41

Donovan Dent is one of the best guards in the nation

Photo by Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images

While the results have been consistently solid, my guess is New Mexico fans would consider their team to have had an up-and-down season. It started fantastically well with a neutral court win over UCLA in Las Vegas and was reinforced with a win over USC, but losses to Arizona State and New Mexico State (along with a thumping at St. John's) showed cracks and had them playing like they'd be a team on the bubble in the early goings. A win over VCU sparked a run where they won fourteen of fifteen games, with the only loss by one point on the road at San Jose State. During the stretch from December 8th through February 16th, the Lobos ranked #24 at T-Rank and were in first place in the Mountain West. They've come back to earth a bit since. The Lobos lost back to back games at Boise State and San Diego State. The did win the Mountain West regular season title, but lost again to Boise State in the tournament semifinals, capping off a 4-3 stretch where they ranked #62 at T-Rank. They come into the NCAA Tournament possibly a little underseeded based on body of work, Cracked Sidewalks had them as a 9-seed, but Marquette could be a touch overseeded as an 8/9 Marquette/New Mexico was the exact matchup we predicted for the first round in Cracketology.

Rotation

Everything for the Lobos starts with Donovan Dent. The Field of 68 had him as a Third Team All-American and he is the only player in the country to average over 20 points per game and 6 assists per game. Dent isn't a usage monster, however, getting his points through efficient play, primarily at the rim. Despite his size, he's athletic with the ability to finish above the rim. Dent is also a great shooter from deep, though he rarely takes threes. Dent is a model of consistent quality. He has been over 100 in Adjusted Offensive Rating in 28 of 32 games, and below 93 just once (84). Bottom line, he's going to show up and give his best, night in and night out. Tru Washington is the back court Robin to Dent's Batman. He's an elite ball hawk on defense and would fit well in a Shaka Smart system, getting most of his points at the rim or from three. Marquette would be well served to lock in on Washington; when he scores 11+ points, New Mexico is 19-0, but just 6-7 when he does not (one DNP). He has been less efficient against top tier teams. Mustapha Amzil joined by way of Dayton. He's a lean forward that provides defensive length and help side rim protection as well as chipping in some scoring and rebounding. He's struggled with a foot injury since February, but seems to be healthy now. Filip Borovicanin transferred from Arizona and plays as a stretch four. He's not a great finisher offensively, but the Lobos defense is 9.8 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor and he is a great rebounding sidekick to Nelly Junior Joseph. Speaking of which, if it all starts with Dent, it often ends with Joseph. After wreaking havoc in the MAAC for Rick Pitino at Iona, the big man transferred to New Mexico and did the same to the Mountain West. He's a physical big that is one of the best rebounders in the country and strong finisher at the rim. He shoots 60.3% at the rim and takes 71.9% of his shots there. He will definitely test Marquette down low as he's effective on the glass at both ends. New Mexico's bench isn't very deep, and has already started to shorten up. C.J. Noland is the one regular contributor, filling in at the guard and wing. Their other bench options are Braden Applehans and Jovan Milicevic, both of whom add size and shooting from deep, but are defensive liabilities. Expect a six-man rotation with Noland the only bench player that gets significant run.

Style of Play

On offense, New Mexico likes to go. Their average possession length is 15.1 seconds, ranked 5th fastest in the country. They thrive in transition, ranking in the 99th percentile in transition attempt rate according to hoop-explorer. However, they are not the best at converting those attempts, scoring 1.063 points per possession in transition (48th percentile per Synergy). In the half court, they will look to get chances at the rim, sometimes through the drive, but often through big men cutting off screens to the basket. Dent and Joseph have a great sense for each other and do well creating easy looks there. Also look for Joseph to try to post up Gold down low. One of the biggest questions will be if Gold can replicate his non-conference defensive form that saw him hold up against guys like Derik Queen, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Asa Newell. This is not, however, a great shooting team. While they have some shooters on the roster, New Mexico takes just 32.2% of the shots from deep and convert at a relatively middling 34.1%. They turn the ball over at a 15.6% rate, which is 69th in the country. New Mexico is decent at protecting the ball, but not elite. Look for Marquette to try to exploit that early.

 

Defense is where the Lobos shine. They have the 19th ranked defense according to kenpom, which is based on solid play across the board. They challenge shots (49.2 eFG% ranks 97th), force turnovers (20.5% ranks 35th), and clean the glass (25.6 DR% ranks 21st). Looking at the defensive shot chart above, this game will largely be decided where most Marquette games are. Marquette needs to go at UNM's strength and finish at the rim, and they need to hit their threes because Marquette will be able to get those shots. According to Synergy, New Mexico is in the 68th percentile allowing shots at the rim and in the 71st percentile defending them. Marquette will be able to get inside and will be able to get those shots off, but can you get them over the shot blockers is the question. Marquette also wants to get out in transition and run pick and roll, two areas where the Lobos are excellent defensively. This is a team that will blow up your actions and is good at forcing teams into shots they don't want to take.

Friday Outlook

As much as we'd all love to call this a comfortable Marquette win and move on with our days, this will likely be anything but. Both teams have elite lead guards, disruptive defenses with length, and competent complimentary pieces. I feel those pieces are likely where Marquette has the advantage. The experience and tenacity of Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross can be a difference maker, and getting out of Big East play will likely be a positive. The physicality of the Big East won't be present on Friday, and Marquette did well handling non-conference opponents that relied on dominant big men (Maryland, Purdue, Georgia). I do think this game will come down to a couple possessions in the final minute, but I like Marquette to take the narrow win.

Marquette Connection

It would be easy to say "we played Rick Pitino on Friday, now we play Richard Pitino a week later," and while that would be true, it isn't nearly as interesting as another one of the UNM staff members. Associate Head Coach Isaac Chew was on Marquette's staff under Buzz Williams from 2012-14, most prominently with the 2013 Elite Eight squad. Chew went to Virginia Tech with Williams, then preceded him at Texas A&M. Chew is regarded as an elite recruiter and has been at Pitino's side since he took the New Mexico job four years ago. He is now the longest serving assistant on the Lobos staff.